Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
939 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Issued at 920 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Main concern today will be thunderstorm impacts with approaching
cold front and upper trof this afternoon and evening. Varying
amounts of low level moisture and stratus deck across the plains
this am but given latest satellite imagery and observations, deck
appears to be thinning so should see some heating from late am
through mid afternoon. This should result in temperatures in the
mid/upper 70s and support CAPE values around 1000j/kg. Big player
today will be cold front located in Central Wyoming and just
through Casper as of 15z. This timing will push the front into
the Denver area between 21-22z and should be the focus for
thunderstorms. Given strong mid level low of 35-40kt could be a
few severe storms with strong winds to 60 mph and marginal hail up
to 1 inch in diameter. Expect storms to rapidly diminish this
evening behind the front and as strong subsidence moves in behind
the upper trof.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Summer will take a break for the next couple days as a cool
airmass has moved in from the north and an upper level trough will
be overhead through tonight. Mostly cloudy skies and winds out of
the north will keep temperatures some 15 degrees cooler than
normal this afternoon. Model soundings show that the airmass will
be quite moist through the day. GPS integrated precipitable water
values this morning are just short of one inch this morning and
may drop to 0.75 inches by midday. Regardless, enough moisture is
going to be present for the dynamic forcing from the upper level
trough to produce shower activity through the day. Embedded
thunderstorms are going to be possible through the afternoon
hours. QG diagnostic fields show mid-level subsidence developing
tonight, but cross sections show low levels of will remain nearly
saturated. This may produce a conditionally unstable airmass that
is able to produce showers if the low level upslope remains strong
enough. Will bring down the Pops a little bit tonight, but still
hold onto a slight chance of showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Models have weak west-northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Saturday well into Sunday, then it is weak southwesterly into the
later days. There is very weak downward motion progged on the QG
Omega fields Saturday through Sunday night. The boundary layer
flow looks to be dominated by normal diurnal patterns Saturday
through Sunday night. Moisture is pretty sparse Saturday and
Saturday night, then increases Sunday and Sunday night.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range
Saturday into Saturday night, then they increase into the 0.50 to
1.0 inch range by late day Sunday. There is a tad of CAPE over the
southwestern and south central CWA Saturday late day. There is
plenty of CAPE progged on Sunday and Sunday evening for all but
the northwestern and north central CWA. There is a tad of
measurable rainfall over the southwestern CWA late day Saturday,
with a bit more coverage for late day Sunday. For pops will go
with 0-30%s both late day periods, with the highest pops for the
the higher CWA areas. Saturday`s high temperatures will be close
to today`s readings. Sunday`s highs will be 2-5 C warmer than
Saturday`s. For the later days, Monday through Thursday, models
have weak upper troughiness around for Colorado Monday night well
into Thursday. Will have the best pops in the mountians.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 920 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Stratus deck appears to be thinning so should see clearing out of
the lower decks between 16-17z. Surface cold front to move through
terminals between 21-22z and looks like active showers/thunderstorms
along the front through late afternoon. Expect strong winds...heavy
rain and hail with the thunderstorms as possible ILS/MVFR


.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Dankers
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