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000
FXUS65 KBOU 130932
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
332 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO TODAY WITH FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3-5C TODAY...RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT
6-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WARMUP WILL BE QUICK WITH A VERY
SHALLOW INVERSION IN PLACE AS ALREADY EVIDENCED BY CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.

DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER PER
THE LATEST GPS TRENDS SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...JUST ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ON THE PLAINS WITH WARMING ALOFT TO KEEP THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY AT THIS TIME. GFS SEEMS FAR TOO WET AGAIN
CONSIDERING CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

AFTER ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION ENDS...LOOK FOR SUMMER-LIKE LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH HEART OF THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON
TUE WITH RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. A WK BNDRY IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
NERN CO BY AFTN WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY CAPES ARE FCST IN THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SO SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHC OF TSTMS IN THESE AREA IN THE AFTN AND THEN ACROSS THE PLAINS
TUE EVENING. AS FOR HIGHS LITTLE CHANGE IS SHOWN IN THE 850-700 MB
TEMPS SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
NERN CO.

BY WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH A WK UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE MOVING ACROSS BY WED AFTN OR EVENING. AT THE SFC A WK FNT
WILL AFFECT NERN CO AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME LIGHT ESE BY AFTN. AS
A RESULT SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH CAPES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  HOWEVER
AIRMASS WILL BE INITIALLY CAPPED BUT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
AFFECTS AREA LATE IN THE DAY WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS FOR
TEMPS READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE
OVER NERN CO.

FOR THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS SFC LOW PRES
EXTENDS FM ERN WY INTO ERN CO. IT APPEARS A DRY LINE WILL SET UP
OVER THE PLAINS PROBABLY EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE. AFTN
CAPES OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WILL BE AOA 1000 J/KG SO COULD SEE
SOME LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING STORMS IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE MTNS OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS DRY. 850-700 MB TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT HIFHS BACK IN THE 80S
FOR THU AFTN. BY FRI THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND FM THE NRN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. RIGHT NOW MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED SO
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN IN THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO ITS POSSIBLE
A DRY LINE WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER SO WILL KEEP
IN SOME LOW POPS NR THE CO-NE BORDER. HIGHS ON FRI LOOK PRETTY WRM
ACROSS NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO AS A CDFNT
AFFECTS NERN CO. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE IN
THE MTNS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OVER NERN CO. HIGHS ON SAT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS. FOR SUN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A BIT
MORE MOISTURE IN THE MTNS VS THE GFS. THUS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY
WHICH IS RIGHT SO WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO
IT LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS. ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN APPROACH
GATES 20Z-02Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH