Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 160909
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
309 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Water vapor imagery showing back end of upper trof nearing Park
county and continuing to move east and northeast. Ahead of the
trof there is still scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over
far Eastern Colorado, while mountain and foothills locales
showing more isolated coverage of light showers. The trend for
today is for decreasing showers/storms during the morning hours as
the trof move east.

QG fields showing increasing subsident airmass moving into much
of the region during the day behind the disturbance. There will
still be enough moisture and marginal instability for some
showers/storms over mountains and higher terrain this afternoon
but significant drying expected out over the plains this
afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today behind last evenings
cold front. Readings will be in the 70s over lower elevations
this afternoon. Showers will diminish early this evening with lack
of any upper air support and the end of surface heating.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

WNW flow aloft will be over the area on Thu as a sfc lee trough
develops over ern CO.  Enough moisture will linger for a slight chc
of storms from the higher terrain across the plains fm aftn thru the
early evening hours. As for highs, temps in the 850-700 layer
rise fm 5 to 6 degrees so readings will be in the 80s across the
plains.

On Fri the flow aloft will become more wly with less moisture thus
activity will be more isold and confined to the higher terrain.
Temperatures will continue to wrm a few more degrees as highs get
back to seasonal normals.

For the weekend the flow aloft will become more swly.  There will be
some subtropical moisture embedded in the flow so will probably see
a slightly better chc of tstms both days. Highs across nern CO
will range fm the upper 80s to lower 90s both days.

On Mon little change is expected as some subtropical moisture may
still affect the area bringing at least a slight chc of storms to
the area. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the plains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Mid level deck of clouds across the terminals early this am as
upper trof approaches from central Colorado. Have removed the
lower clouds from forecast with lack of development and winds have
already shifted back to south and southwest. Could still see a
few light rain showers through mid morning before trof moves east
of the Front Range. Storms this afternoon and evening will mainly
be confined to mountains and higher terrain and may clip BJC.
Otherwise, the further east, the lesser chances for storms today.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Entrekin



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