Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220155
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
755 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TRYING TO TIME THE SHOWER BANDS. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN DENVER IS BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE. SHOWERS AROUND THE FRONT
RANGE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WEAK AND TRANSIENT AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WHAT REACHES THE GROUND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. BETTER ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT
WE WILL PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS SURVIVE WITH IT ONTO THE
PLAINS TOWARD MORNING. SNOW LEVEL STILL ABOVE TIMBERLINE...BUT
SOME COOLING LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MAINLY ABOVE
10 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING INTO COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING
OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS BACK OVER WESTERN
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL UTAH. LOOKING AT SATELLITE HOWEVER AND
MONITORING MODEL TRENDS...EXPECTING A PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.
MOST OF THE ENERGY OF THIS SYSTEM IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER...SO AFTER THESE TWO WAVES TONIGHT WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TRENDING DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000
FEET...EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PUSHING OUT ON THE PLAINS WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR SO INITIALLY WILL LIKELY SEE VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
THEN JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL HELP SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO AGAIN ESTABLISH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH DOWNWARD QG
VERTICAL MOTION...WEAK CAPE...AND THE MAIN TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY...BRINGING READINGS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
THE RECENT AUTUMN WARM SPELL. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...HIGH HEIGHTS WITH MILD AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DENVER AREA. THE
RECORD HIGH ON BOTH DAYS IS 80 DEGREES. AS THE DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ZERO.

CHANGES IN THE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE AND VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A CLOUDY
AND UNSETTLED DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD ALSO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE BY
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH HIGHS BACK TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 6000 FEET AROUND
SUNRISE AS A BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/RJK



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