Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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839
FXUS65 KBOU 040927
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
327 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

AXIS OF A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE WAS PRESENTLY OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND LIGHT NWLY FLOW WAS OVER ERN CO. RIDGE MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE BY
THIS EVENING RESULTING IN LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE
ABOUT A 2 DEG C WARMUP WITHIN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WHICH WOULD
EQUATE TO 4-7 DEG F WARMUP ON THE PLAINS UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SWLY FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
FUNNEL A NARROW RIBBON OF ELEVATED SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO LATER TODAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH STG SOLAR HEATING OF S FACING MTN SLOPES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK T-STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
I-70. WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE WIND THAN RAIN FROM THIS HIGH BASED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE IT WILL STAY DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE TODAY...AND WITH MUCH
LESS WIND ON THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE NOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH AND ANY
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER
MAY SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION. LOWS TONIGHT 3-6
DEG F WARMER THAN CURRENT OVERNIGHT READINGS WITH LOW/MID 40S ON
THE PLAINS AND UPPER 20S-30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THURSDAY ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS FOR THIS.

ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN WITH HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING AND COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND OR AFTER
00Z. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF COLORADO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. OVER COLORADO...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES GENERALLY 500-1500 J/KG.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO SATURDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...DRIER AIR
MAY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH AND THE LOWEST POPS SOUTH.

IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SO
LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS IF THE LOW TRACKS OVER OR THE NORTH
OF DENVER. HOWEVER IF THE LOW ENDS UP BEING OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AS THE LATEST GFS SHOWS...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AND WON`T BITE OFF
ON THE GFS YET.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED. EXPECT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE LOWER TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT BREEZES
LIKELY ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART S-SWLY 5-12
KTS THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN E-SELY AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BACK TO A LIGHT S-SWLY DRAINAGE WIND
WITH NIGHT FALL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER



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