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000
FXUS65 KBOU 211628
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS IS HOLDING BACK SURFACE HEATING JUST A TAD...SO
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE HARDER TO REACH THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. CONVECTION MAY TEND TO DEVELOP ON
EDGE OF MOISTURE PLUME SO POINTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER AND
PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE MOST OF THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF COLORADO...WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. THIS DRYING WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.60-0.80 WITH UP TO INCH OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS. CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL BE LOWER TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS DRYING...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. STILL COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS THE
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE OF THE
AIRMASS...SO EXPECT HIGHS CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S READINGS. FEWER
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOTS CLIMBING A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER.

STORMS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES.
LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
BEING MILD. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN COOL DUE TO THE
DRY AIRMASS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO BOTH TUE AND WED.
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER DRY ON TUE BUT THEN SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE RGN ON WED. MEANWHILE A WK
FNT WILL OVER ACROSS NERN CO ON TUE WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL
MOISTURE TUE NIGHT INTO WED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TSTM
ACTIVITY TUE AFTN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70. TUE EVENING AS LOW LOW
MOISTURE INCREASES THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS FM DENVER
TOWARDS LIMON. BY WED MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER NERN CO AS SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AFFECTS
THE RGN. AS FOR TEMPS DESPITE WK FNT READINGS WILL STILL RISE INTO
THE 90S ON TUE AND WED ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR THU THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE RGN WITH SOME
LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE. THUS WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC FOR
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. HIGHS ON THU WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S
OVER NERN CO. BY FRI THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MAY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO
THE WSW WITH SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  MEANWHILE ANOTHER WK FNT MAY MOVE INTO
NERN CO DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BUT
READINGS WILL STILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

BY THE WEEKEND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN CO. AS A RESULT THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW WEAK FNTS TO AFFECT NERN CO BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS ANY FLOW OF MONSOON INTO THE AREA WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 18Z
AND THEN TRANSITION TO NORMAL BUT WEAK EASTERLY COMPONENT.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWER/STORM STILL POSSIBLE BUT MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. HOWEVER...
CONSIDERABLE UNDERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HOLDING BACK SURFACE
TEMPS A BIT. COULD STILL SEE WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 22Z DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM THE STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...THOUGH FEWER THAN
YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70. AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER
THAN YESTERDAY. BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. NO THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE PLAINS MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER
SO THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...MEIER/RPK