Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KBOU 180916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
316 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A quick moving upper level trough will move across nrn CO
tonight. In advance of this feature wsw flow aloft will be over
the area with some increase in moisture across the higher terrain
north of I-70 by late aftn. With some mid lvl ascent and
improving lapse rates should see a chc of showers dvlp by mid to
late aftn in the mtns. Over nern CO sfc low pres will dvlp sw of
Denver with increasing sse low lvl flow across the ecntrl Plains
and Palmer Divide.  Otherwise no pcpn is expected across nern CO
with highs in the 60s.

For tonight the main upper level trough will move across along
with a decent amount of mid lvl ascent. In addition there will be
an upper level speed max as well which will put areas closer to
the WY-CO vorder area in favored left fnt quadrant. Thus should
see pcpn increase over the higher terrain north of i-70 and in
the nrn Foothills. Snow levels will gradually lower thru the
evening down to 7000 ft. Mtn areas could see 2 to 6 inches of
snow north of I-70.

Over nern CO a cdfnt will move across the plains this evening
with winds having a nly component. Overall looks like areas
closer to the WY border will have the best chc of pcpn tonight fm
nern Larimer across northern Weld counties so will go likely pops
as this area will be in the left fnt quadrant of speed max as
alluded to abv. Further south appears pcpn chances will be lower
south of a FortCollins to Fort Morgan line. Buffer soundings show
pcpn will stay mainly rain although could see a mix nr the WY
border late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

An upper trough over the state will push quickly southeast into
the Great Plains through Wednesday with clearing conditions over
Colorado. Snow over the northern mountains will be diminishing by
the afternoon with less than an inch expected. Some moisture and a
jet on the backside of the trough may produce some light rain showers
over the far northeastern corner of the state through the evening.
Max temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be about 5 to 10
degrees cooler than todays readings in the post frontal airmass.
Northwesterly surface winds will be gusty through the day as the
jet passes overhead and higher surface pressure from the lee of
the Northern Rockies pushes down south. As night falls, skies
will clear and the pressure gradient will relax allowing for light
winds. Minimum temperatures will likely be at or below freezing
all areas Wednesday night.

Thursday through the weekend will feature dry and warming
conditions as a large upper ridge takes hold of the western US. As
the upper ridge pushes east by Monday, moisture will push in on
southwesterly flow aloft to bring a chance of showers for the high


Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Gusty south to southeast winds will dvlp by afternoon over the
ecntrl Plains and Palmer Divide. Humidity levels are only fcst to
drop into the 20-25% range by aftn so will not issue any
highlights for fire wx. However winds will be strong enough for elevated
Fire Danger across eastern portions of Douglas...Elbert and
Lincoln counties.

Gusty northwesterly winds on Wednesday may combine with marginal
low humidity for elevated fire concerns over Lincoln County. At
this time, humidities look stay in the upper teens to lower 20
percent range.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A sfc low will dvlp sw of Denver by 18z with increasing sely
winds. Gusts to 25 mph will be possible fm 18z to 22z. By early
evening a cdfnt will move across with winds switching to northerly
between 01z and 03z. At this time it looks like the best chc of
pcpn will stay north of the airport but still can`t rule out a few
rain showers between 03z and 07z with ceilings fm 6000-8000 ft.




LONG TERM...Kriederman
FIRE WEATHER...RPK/Kriederman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.