Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 310241
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
841 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A FEW WEAK SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOW
CWA IS COMPLETELY SHOWER FREE. HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY THAT MANY
TIMES IN THE PAST MONTH! EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS ACROSS
WYOMING. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FORECAST
OTHERWISE EVERYTHING IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

JUST SHALLOW WEAK CONVECTION GOING ON SO FAR...STILL THINK THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS SO NO FURTHER
CHANGES TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. FOR SUNDAY MAIN QUESTION IS THE
CLOUD COVER. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LITTLE BIT IN UTAH
BUT MOSTLY JUST THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...I WILL LEAVE THAT AND NOT RAISE IT
ANY MORE. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND THE MOIST GROUND THIS WILL TAKE A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS...ALSO STUCK WITH OUR CURRENT
FORECAST OF HIGHS AROUND 80 ON THE PLAINS. WITH WARMING SURFACE
AND ALOFT...STILL MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION BUT WITH A BIT MORE
MOISTURE ALOFT A SLIGHT UPTICK FOR ISOLATED STORMS EVERYWHERE BY
LATE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ALRIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NE COLORADO. WITH SNOW STILL IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 90S ON THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY 700MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS STRONGER ON THE GFS THEN
THE EC BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST CLEARING OUT PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAKDOWN WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FROM THE PACIFIC. AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY...CAPES JUMPING INTO THE 3000 J/KG RANGE AND STRONG SHEAR.
HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S...HOWEVER WITH THE TROUGH MOVING IN BY
THURSDAY LOOK FOR A COOLER TREND TO START WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO
THE 70S BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY ON EXACT TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE BUT
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. BY
SATURDAY THE EC MAINTAINS THE DEEPEST SOLUTION WITH THE 566 MB
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BRINGING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 833 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DENVER AREA WILL SHIFT
WINDS MORE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH UP TO 15KT THROUGH 04Z...AND THEN
DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING INCREASING SNOWMELT STARTING SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH FLOWS IN
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE WATER WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO HIGH
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON THE SOUTH PLATTE AS WELL. SNOWMELT ALONE
WILL LIKELY ONLY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR ANY RAINFALL THAT WOULD COME ON TOP OF RIVERS THAT ARE FULL.
NOT SEEING MUCH THREAT OF THAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD



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