Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 301612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NEXT UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN GREAT
BASIN MOVING EAST. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
TROF OVER UTAH AND JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING IN THE
MID/UPR LVLS WITH A SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
500-1000J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH
AS THEY MOVE OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY 10-20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL FALL BETWEEN 23-02Z WITH MAIN THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH THE BRIEF SHOWERS AT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING MORE VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINING VFR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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