Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 190855
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
255 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

An upper level high will remain over the cntrl and srn plains with
a continued influx of subtropical moisture in sw flow aloft
affecting the area.  Showers and tstms will redevelop over the
higher terrain by late morning thru early aftn.  Additional activity
will develop across the front range by early to mid aftn and then
spread across portions of the plains fm late aftn into the evening
hours.  Precipitable water values will continue in the 1.1" to 1.2"
range across most of nern CO so the storms may produce heavy
rainfall in a few spots. Threat of svr storms looks low however
can`t rule out an isold marginal svr storm. As for highs readings
will remain in the 90s across nern CO. For tonight most activity
should end before midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Upper high pressure centered over Oklahoma on Wednesday will
slowly begin to retreat back west through Thursday to decrease the
amount of subtropical moisture that is transported up and over the
state. However enough moisture will remain for diurnally driven
storms across the forecast area. Expect scattered to numerous
afternoon storms for the mountains, moving east over the plains
during the late afternoon and into the evening with some possibly
lasting past midnight near the eastern border. Precipitable water
values remain near an inch, though CAPE values will be decreasing
with readings of up to 500 J/kg over the plains and some slightly
higher readings over the mountains. Temperatures will remain above
normal with the upper high remains nearby.

On Friday, a shortwave trough will push over the Northern Rockies
to flatten the upper ridge and push a cold front into the state
late Friday night into early Saturday. This will cool temperatures
back to near normal values for this time of year. The front will
actually push in relatively drier air from the north...so not
looking for a large uptick in storm coverage or intensity at this
time. The plains actually look to become capped with the post
frontal airmass. High surface pressure should stay over the Great
Plains on Sunday to keep in the relatively cooler temperatures
but a possible upper shortwave may help give storms a better
chance to spread across the plains during the afternoon.

Models are portraying an upper trough to dig along the western
states Sunday into Monday for an increase in southwesterly flow.
This will bring slightly warmer temperatures and likely a
continuation of diurnally driven storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Winds have been sly early this morning and should stay in that
general direction thru mid morning.  Previous hi res data showed
winds becoming light nely by late morning into early aftn as some
type of wk bndry was supposed to be nr DIA.  However latest data now
keeps winds mainly sly thru early aftn.  There will be a threat of
sct storms between 20z and 00z with gusty outflow winds at times
with chaotic sfc winds.

By 01z storm threat should end with wsw winds becoming more sly by
midnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

A few spots may see an inch or two of rain this aftn into the early
evening hours along the front range and across the plains. However
the threat of widespread heavy rain and flash flooding looks low
at this time.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK


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