Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 132213
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
313 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

The mid and upper level storm across southwestern New Mexico is
slowly translating east and will be into Texas Tuesday afternoon.
Very light precipitation across Lincoln County has diminished and
the Plains will remain dry through Tuesday under the influence of
dry northerly flow aloft. There are light snow showers across
parts of Park and Summit Counties but orographics and moisture
availability are not favorable for accumulating snow. Any amounts
through late this evening should be an inch or less in those
areas. Otherwise the CWA will be dry. Tonight cloud cover will
help offset light winds resulting in lows in the mid and upper 20s
across the Plains. Mountain valleys will be mostly clear with
light winds and favored locations could drop into the low single
digits.

On Tuesday skies will be clearing as moisture is pushed south and
east of the CWA and a surface ridge of high pressure builds east
of the Front Range. This will drive northerly winds much of the
day along and east of I-25 and help keep high temperatures in
check. Expect highs near 50 across the urban corridor to low 50s
far eastern and northern Plains of Colorado with downslope off the
Cheyenne Ridge. 700 mb temps over the mountains cool several degC
over today`s values, the result of cold advection from the north
and east. The net impact is temps in the low 30s for highs across
the mountain valleys and low 20s above 10000 feet. A weak
pressure gradient across the state and weak flow aloft means winds
should stay below 25 mph across the high country.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Upper level high pressure building over the Rocky Mountain Region
will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures to north
central and northeastern Colorado through Thursday. A weak shortwave
should result in scattered snow showers in the high country on
Friday...with mild and dry weather continuing on the plains.

On Saturday...upper level high pressure remains over the
region...with the next storm system moving onto the west coast of
the United States. Most of the energy with this system stays well
south across southern California/Arizona and northern Mexico through
the weekend. As a result...conditions should remain mostly dry
across the CWA with only a few light rain and snow showers across
the mountains...mainly south of Interstate 70.

On Monday...the upper low over the Desert Southwest weakens with a
secondary piece of energy from the upper trough moving across
Colorado. Increased moisture combined with better orographic flow
should result in a better chance for snow across the mountains. The
plains should remain dry with slightly cooler temperatures due to
the passage of a weak cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions today through at least Tuesday evening. Northerly
winds will continue through late this evening before weakening
later this evening. Weak drainage winds look likely after 07Z
tonight at all three terminals. With daytime heating and mixing
winds should return to northerly after about 16 or 17Z Tuesday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Schlatter



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