Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 242137
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
337 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...

THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES HAVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
SILL OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL WYOMING RIGHT NOW. THERE HAS A PRETTY
DECENT LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIGHT NOW. THEN THERE
ARE SOME STORMS MOVING MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE FOOTHILLS
PRESENTLY MAKING IT INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LOT OF
MODERATE AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL IT IS A PRETTY STATIC PATTERN
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MORE OF THE
SAME. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW TO
BE RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AT 18Z MONDAY. BY
00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CWA. THERE
IS VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED ON THE QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS...UPWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN
DOWNWARD BY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DEW
POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THERE IS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR ALL THE CWA. WILL KEEP DECENT POPS GOING
THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE THEM INTO MID DAY MONDAY...THEN
INCREASE THEM AGAIN WITH POPS...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THIS
EVENING`S CHANCES. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS COULD BE 1-2
C HIGHER THEN THIS AFTERNOON`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COOL...MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. RAINFALL ON THE PLAINS HAS BEEN
PLENTIFUL ENOUGH OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THAT WE ARE STUCK IN A
POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE PRECIPITATION ON ONE DAY FEEDS INTO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT DAY. UNTIL WE GET
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS...THE DIURNAL HEATING
OF EACH DAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TUESDAY MAY SEE A MINOR DECREASE IN
THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER COVERAGE DUE TO A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PASSING
OVER THE STATE...BUT THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WHICH WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ON THE
PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
ABOUT FRIDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER
UPPER RIDGING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE MOIST...RATHER THAN DRY.
FARMERS AND TOWNS OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS ARE FINDING IT A BIT
HARD TO CATCH A BREAK AS THIS PROLONGED WET SPELL CONTINUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE EASTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS SOME
OUTFLOW ENHANCING THEM. WINDS LOOK PRETTY WEAK OVERNIGHT AND NOT
SURE IF THEY WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT GOING OR GO WEAK
DRAINAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOO WITH VISIBILITIES NOT
UNDER 2SM. CEILINGS COULD GET DOWN TO BKN/OVC030-BKN/OVC045 FROM
NOW INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HARD TO DISAGREE WITH THAT
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR DATA. LOGAN COUNTY SHOULD GET
ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN AND THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
STERLING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE
RIVERS AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES
TO RISE FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY`S RAINS.  FURTHER WEST AT DENVER
AND HENDERSON WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER STORMS SEND LEVELS
RISING AGAIN.  &&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...RJK



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