Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 302103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN. AREAS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN ABLE TO GET THROUGH...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS
LESSENING AND QG VERTICAL MOTION HAS TURNED DOWNWARD...SO PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT STILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH.

QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL TURN UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING...WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...BUT
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW...BUT STILL AROUND 15 TO 20
DEGREES LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH SHALLOW AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THOSE WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPSLOPE ABATES AND
WEAK DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY...
THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HARD FREEZE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
SUFFICIENT SNOW COVER. WILL ASSESS THAT IN UPCOMING SHIFTS FOR
POTENTIAL FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS A HARDER FREEZE WITH LOWS DROPPING
WELL INTO THE 20S MAY DAMAGE FRUIT TREES.

ON MONDAY...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY AND IT WILL FINALLY TURN
A LITTLE WARMER. THAT BEING SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE PLAINS...WHILE SNOW COVERED
AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S WITH LITTLE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO AID WARMING. THOSE READINGS ARE A GOOD 10-18 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT COULD DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

THE MAIN WARMUP WILL FINALLY KICK IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND ALLOW THE WARMING TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE HELD BACK BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
SO ONLY THREAT WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY LATE THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY...THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
OVERALL THINK ITS PROGRESSION IS TOO FAST FOR THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN IN PLACE...SO WILL DELAY THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MORE
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHWEST TO NORTH SFC WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT AFTER 6Z. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



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