Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 090839
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
239 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH NW FLOW
REMAINING ACROSS NRN CO.  AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM WRN WY
INTO CENTRAL CO WITH SLY FLOW OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  OVERALL SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE MTNS AND WITH AFTN HEATING
SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION.

OVER NERN CO NOT SURE ABOUT TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  LOW LVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO MIX OUT ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WHILE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NERN
PLAINS CAPES WILL RANGE FM 1000-2000 J/KG.  OVERALL A WK CONVERGENCE
ZN MAY SET UP FROM NR LIMON TO AKRON TO STERLING WHICH MAY ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BNDRY.  CLOSER TO
THE FRONT RANGE WILL KEEP COVERAGE WDLY SCT WITH STORMS BEING RATHER
HIGH BASED.  OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS FOR A FEW SVR STORMS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND STG WINDS.

AS FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6C TO 7C WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

ON THURSDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS AGAIN
CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH HIGHER SURFACE BASED
CAPES AND STRONGER STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.  FOR FRIDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT A BIT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN TO OUR WEST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RIDGE ALOFT
GETS SHIFTED FURTHER WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AREA WILL BE
SUSECEPTIBLE TO SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE AND REPLENISHMENT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT AN EVEN HIGHER THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT SSW AND THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT THEM TO MORE OF AN ENE DIRECTION BY 18Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT HIGH
BASED STORMS AFTER 20Z THRU 01Z SO WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAF.  MAY
SEE WINDS CHANGE TO MORE OF A WNW COMPONENT BY 22Z TO 23Z IF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH.

FOR EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SWLY AND THEN
DRAINAGE BY MID EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...RPK


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