Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 171616
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1016 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Cooler air has moved into the area today behind a cold front that
pushed through last night. However, it will remain mild with
above normal temperatures. Forecast is on track with highs
expected to reach the mid 60s to lower 70s. Increased cloud cover
and winds a little to reflect current conditions. Expect the mid
and high clouds to continue over the area most of the day. Drier
air will move in late today bringing mostly clear skies for
tonight and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

WNW flow aloft will continue today with only some mid and high level
moisture embedded in the flow.  Simulated satellite data indicates
not much cloud cover thru the day or tonight.  As for highs this
aftn, it will not be as wrm as Thu due to a cool fnt moving across
last evening. Thus readings will mainly be in the 65 to 70 degree
range across nern CO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Models have an upper ridge with weak zonal flow aloft over the CWA
Saturday and Saturday night. There is a weak upper trough to move
across Sunday and the flow aloft stays light. There is slightly
stronger zonal flow aloft for Sunday night. There is benign
synoptic scale energy progged for the CWA Saturday and Saturday
night, then weak upward motion Sunday, with more benign energy
later Sunday afternoon and night. The boundary layer winds look to
be a combination of normals diurnal patterns and some weak
downsloping. Winds speeds are not very strong. For moisture, it is
pretty dry Saturday through Sunday night, just some upper level
moisture later on Sunday and Sunday night. There is no measurable
precipitation on the QPF fields for the CWA through the periods.
No pops. For temperatures, Saturday`s highs are up 1-4 C above
today`s expected highs. Sunday`s highs look similar to Saturday`s.
We should be close to record values both days. For the later
days, Monday through Thursday, models have more upper ridging on
Monday and Tuesday, then southwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday and
a bonafide upper trough/closed low for Thursday. There is a bit
of QPF late Monday and Monday night, but there is a change of a
precipitation event for much of the CWA Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1016 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

No aviation issues expected through at least Saturday. Mid and
high clouds will continue over the area through today and then
decrease tonight. Southeast winds will turn to the east to
northeast around 18z. These winds will linger through 00z and
then turn southerly by 03z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Fire Danger will be lower today across the plains due to cooler
temperatures, less wind and higher humidity levels.

Saturday and Sunday look quite warm and very dry. The only thing
lacking for highlights are decent wind speeds. We may still need
some highlights in a few spots either afternoon with the
continued significant dryness and marginal wind speeds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...RPK/RJK



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