Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUITE A BIT OF WAVE CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WAVE CLOUD
DISSIPATION BY 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
AT LEAST TO +10 TO +12C WHICH WILL GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER TODAY IS
80 DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BREAK A RECORD. THIS IS STILL
COOLER THAN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY SATURDAY. 586 DECAMETER
HEIGHTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
ALSO QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE. BY
AFTERNOON 700 MB TEMP UP AROUND 12C AND WITH THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE
ON THE PLAINS WITH THE WARMER READINGS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING/SWLY WINDS. MAY SEE MORE RECORDS BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER FOR THE DATE IS 80F.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
PLACING THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION BEING CARRIED ALONG BY THIS
FLOW. PRES FALLS ON THE PLAINS LEADING TO A TIGHT CROSS MTN PRES
GRAD WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS HEIGHT FALL ANOMALY AND THE FORMATION
OF A LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE TO PRODUCE GUSTY W-SWLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST ASPECT OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY
ESPLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO THESE CHINOOK WINDS. HOWEVER
THROUGH THE DAY 700-500MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP DOWNWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z AND 06Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. STILL PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD END UP PRODUCING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO
START OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO
AROUND 8 THOUSAND FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS STILL AROUND
MONDAY EVENING... COULD SEE A SMATTERING OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS...HOWEVER NO DISCERNIBLE
ACCUMULATION. SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING THE 36-HOUR
PERIOD ENDING 00Z/TUE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH 4-5
INCH ACCUMS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
TROUGH RACING EAST AND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARMING REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW KEEP MID-LEVELS COOL. ONE OF THESE
RIPPLES MAY BRING A BIT OF SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NRN MTNS
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WAVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z OVER LOCAL TERMINALS.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT BJC UNTIL 16Z BEFORE WAVE
BREAKS DOWN. WEAKER WINDS AT APA/DEN WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE FROM
THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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