Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 301650
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE WINDS AND REDUCE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER. WE SHOULD APPROACH BUT NOT REACH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONTITIONS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BITS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAYBE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL..BUT NOT MUCH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...DROPPED MOUNTAIN LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH
A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR DENVER...THE RECORD IS 81. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE TEMPERATURES SOME
FM TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE WITH MOST THE MOISTURE AOA 450 MB. MAIN
RESULT FM THIS WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE JUST SOME BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MDLS STILL BRING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH...WITH STRONG QG ASCENT DEVELOPING FM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTN...WL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IF
IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL INSTBY. NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET IF
THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. WL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER CO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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