Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200942
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
342 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Showers have moved out of the area with only some stratus
lingering behind. The stratus deck has managed to break up over
the northeastern plains, but a sizable patch remains trapped
along the Front Range. However, the upslope component is very weak
if non-existent so expect continued erosion and breakup this
morning with the onset of daytime heating and mixing.

Overall, the airmass will be quite stable today. Only threat for
afternoon/evening convection would be from Summit/Park county
southeastward perhaps brushing the Palmer Divide. Otherwise
airmass is capped off. Temperatures will be rather autumn-like
with highs mainly in the mid 70s on the plains. Lows will drop
into the upper 40s and lower 50s tonight, with 30s over most of
the mountains/high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

An upper high pressure area is over Colorado on Sunday into
Monday. Weak westerly flow aloft early on Sunday becomes
southwesterly later in the day and continues through Monday night.
The layer QG Omega fields show weak downward synoptic scale energy
for the CWA Sunday, then weak upward motion Monday into the
extended periods. The boundary layer winds will be pretty weak.
Mainly southeasterlies for the days and normal drainage patterns
during the nights. For moisture, it is dry early Sunday, then
there is an increase by late in the day. There is quite a bit of
mid and upper level moisture progged Monday and Monday night.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.40 to 1.00 inch range from
west to east all four periods. There is pretty decent CAPE around
Sunday afternoon and evening for the plains and southern half of
the mountains. There is less CAPE around late day Monday, but it
is over most of the CWA. There is very little measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields Sunday and Sunday night, just a tad mainly over
Park County. There is a tad noted for late day Monday, but its
over the western 2/3rds of the CWA. Not to excited about pops,
0-30%s. Sunday`s high temperatures will be 3-7 C warmer than
today`s highs. Monday`s highs will be 0-2 C warmer than Sunday`s.
For the later days, Tuesday through Friday, models bring an upper
trough and a cold front into the CWA later Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. The flow aloft is zonal the rest of the Wednesday through
Friday. It is not very moist, but there will be enough for limited
pops, mostly in the mountians. High temperatures for the plains
should stay below 90 all four days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

With only a very weak/nil upslope component, any lingering stratus
with ceilings in the 4000-5000 foot range should be breaking by
14Z-16Z. Visual landing conditions will then prevail through
tonight. Southerly winds expected to shift more easterly 18Z-
20Z, and then slowly back to southeast/south 02z-07Z. Wind speeds
under 10 knots.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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