Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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542
FXUS65 KBOU 242047
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
247 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The strong upper low is now beginning to shift more east and
southeast this afternoon away from Colorado and into the Oklahoma
Panhandle. The main precipitation shield remains over Washington
and Lincoln county this afternoon, but this will gradually weaken
and shifts of the area. Still some very weak convective showers
behind the main precip shield but this too will end by sunset.
Clearing skies tonight as high pressure builds into the region by
Saturday morning.

The next pacific system will move approach Colorado later Saturday
with increasing high clouds and even some light showers moving
into the mountains later Saturday afternoon. Warmer temperatures
on the plains Saturday with readings back into the 60s, but only
upper 40s/50s under areas of snow cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An active weather pattern continues across Colorado with a series
of Pacific storms looking to impact the state with mountain snow
and lower elevation rain. The first storm system looks to impact
our area across overnight into Sunday. A short wave trough moves
across southern Colorado throughout the day, and has a fair amount
of moisture to work with. Synoptic scale lift and a frontal
passage across the Plains looks to generate a good swath of
precipitation across the Plains. The central mountains will have
westerly upslope as the trough axis crosses the state. This
system does not have much cold air to work with so precipitation
should fall as rain below 7000 feet elevation. Snow in the
mountains should remain below advisory levels, in the 3-6 inch
range. Rainfall across the Plains could be in the 0.1 to 0.5 inch
range.

Monday is a transition day with a fast moving ridge passing over
the state. Near average temperatures and dry conditions expected
before the next Pacific storm impacts the state.

Overnight into Tuesday morning precipitation chances increase
across the mountains first. Southwest flow ahead of the next short
wave trough will lead to orographic snow in the mountains Tuesday
into the first half of Wednesday. This storm tracks across the
CO/NM border and looks to be a bit stronger and a bit slower than
Sunday`s storm system. The end result will be a wet day for much
of the CWA Tuesday and Tuesday night, as a fetch of easterly
upslope will aid precipitation chances across the Plains and into
the Front Range foothills. The GFS really slows the system down
into Wednesday, positioning it across far NE NM and the TX
panhandle. The EC is only slightly quicker ejecting the short wave
into the Red River Valley of Oklahoma by late Wednesday. National
blend has high PoPs Wednesday and see no reason to drop them at
this time given the general agreement in model guidance. Once
again, cold air will be scarce and expect snow levels to be around
6000 feet elevation. That is awful close to where 2.5 million
people live, so this storm will have to be watched closely to see
if colder air will be available, leading to snow across the Denver
metro.

Wednesday night into Thursday the atmosphere should dry out with
seasonal temperatures expected for highs and lows. There is a lot
of uncertainty for Friday but models are showing yet another
short wave trough moving across the southern half of Colorado.
Though it`s too far out to provide much detail, the models are
indicating what could be the most potent storm of this series of
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The current northeast winds will continue to relax and shift east
and southeast early this evening. Winds will then turn drainage
s-sw overnight under typical drainage patterns. VFR with clearing
skies tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Good news for fire weather. With a seasonably cool and moist
weather pattern in place, red flag warning conditions are not
expected over the next five days or more. A series of Pacific
storms will bring needed precipitation to most if not all of the
CWA Sunday through Wednesday, and the precipitation from today
should aid in the greening-up process across the Plains.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Schlatter
AVIATION...Entrekin
FIRE WEATHER...Schlatter



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