Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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578
FXUS65 KBOU 010217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING. A BIT OF AN ENHANCED
BAND OF PRECIP IS PUSHING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
INCREASE PRECIP THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. A BIT BETTER DRYING
WITH AN END TO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD SETTLE IN BETWEEN 10 PM
AND MIDNIGHT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
DENVER AND ACROSS DOUGLAS CO WITH THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE NORTHERLY
FLOW THERE. RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET AGL AS
OBSERVATIONS SITES ON THE PLAINS ARE A BIT WARMER.

BY LATER TONIGHT....WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK ASCENT FROM THE
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIGHT SNOW A BIT OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. WILL ADJUST WEATHER
AND POPS THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN. AREAS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN ABLE TO GET THROUGH...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY STILL FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LESSENING AND QG
VERTICAL MOTION HAS TURNED DOWNWARD...SO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT STILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH.

QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL TURN UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING...WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...BUT
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW...BUT STILL AROUND 15 TO 20
DEGREES LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH SHALLOW AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THOSE WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPSLOPE ABATES AND
WEAK DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY...
THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HARD FREEZE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
SUFFICIENT SNOW COVER. WILL ASSESS THAT IN UPCOMING SHIFTS FOR
POTENTIAL FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS A HARDER FREEZE WITH LOWS DROPPING
WELL INTO THE 20S MAY DAMAGE FRUIT TREES.

ON MONDAY...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY AND IT WILL FINALLY TURN
A LITTLE WARMER. THAT BEING SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE PLAINS...WHILE SNOW COVERED
AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S WITH LITTLE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO AID WARMING. THOSE READINGS ARE A GOOD 10-18 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT COULD DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

THE MAIN WARMUP WILL FINALLY KICK IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND ALLOW THE WARMING TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE HELD BACK BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
SO ONLY THREAT WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY LATE THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY...THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
OVERALL THINK ITS PROGRESSION IS TOO FAST FOR THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN IN PLACE...SO WILL DELAY THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
MORE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWEST CIGS/VSBY WITH THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE NOW THROUGH 11 PM...AND THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL
MAINLY END BUT COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES STILL ESPECIALLY AT APA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW ENDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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