Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 232055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
255 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The upper level trough will make its way east through the state
through Wednesday. Energy associated with this feature will allow
for continued propagation of the circulation over the four corners
region to bring showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and
Park county through the evening and into Wednesday. A cold frontal
boundary that pushed in from the NW earlier today brought
increasing stable conditions onto the plains along with gusty
winds. This will help to keep storms at bay for this afternoon and
evening. Models show persistent QG lift and increasing specific
humidity and PW values over the SW portions of the state reaching
into the higher elevations of the CWA and Park county. Expect
upwards of 1 inch of precipitation possible over a few hours under
the stronger storms. Overnight wet bulb zero levels will drop
enough to possibly produce a dusting of snow above timberline. For
Wednesday temperatures will be cooler with highs only reaching
into the mid 70s. CAPE values increase over the plains with just a
slight chance of afternoon storms with increasing mid level
moisture from a surface low that will push north during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Scattered showers will be continuing over the high terrain
Wednesday evening...with some able to produce brief heavy rain.
There will be a slight chance over the urban corridor and nearby
plains with upslope flow. Forecast soundings look too stable
further out east.

Southwest flow aloft will continue Thursday with surface flow
turning more south-southeasterly. Look for high temperatures to
warm a few degrees. Again, storms should confine themselves
mostly to the high terrain and urban corridor in the afternoon,
then the chance of precipitation will push out over the eastern
plains that evening as the upper trough with cooler air aloft
sinks further south toward the area and a jet streak positions us
in the right entrance. Instability will increase over the eastern
plains through the evening and overnight, so will keep a slight
chance going across the area.

The upper trough over the northern Rockies will push into Colorado
late Friday bringing warmer temperatures. Southerly surface flow
will bring up increased moisture over the eastern plains as a
surface low forms over the CO/NE state borders. CAPE values of
600-1000 J/kg over the plains will result in higher POP values
overall with a focus over the far northeast plains. As the trough
pushes over Colorado overnight, it will send drier air in on its

On Saturday and Sunday, flow aloft will stay southwesterly as
another weak upper trough over the Great Basin moves slowly into
the state. Less shower/storm coverage is expected and should
remain mostly over the high terrain. High temperatures should be
back toward seasonal norms. Upper ridging for Monday and Tuesday
will keep the seasonal temperatures around and slight chance of
afternoon and evening showers/storms, mainly over the high


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the period. Main threat will be
from gusty winds from cold frontal passage combined with
increasing convection over the foothills that could send out
outflows. Model upper air soundings have an increasing BKN mid
level with dry low levels. This will help with potential gusty
winds between 23 and 03z. Winds will turn to drainage by this


Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Red Flag Warning will continue to 6 pm this evening for the
northern plains near the Wyoming border. Current observations have
winds sustained at 15 gusting up to 25-30 with RH values between 7
an 10 percent. Elsewhere conditions continue to be close to reg
flag with low RH values and continued increased gusting.
Conditions are expected to improve later this evening as moisture
levels increase.


.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ238-242-248.



LONG TERM...Kriederman
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.