Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 180617
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1217 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer weather next week, with occasional light mountain snow
  showers through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Quiet evening across the area. Lower level clouds were beginning
to decrease from north to south on satellite across the plains.
Outside of some minor adjustments, no changes needed to current
fcst.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows persistent clouds remain across the
forecast area this afternoon with the exception of the far
northeastern corner. Due to the lack of cloud coverage in this area,
temperatures were able to climb a touch higher than originally
thought, therefore they were nudged upwards a touch. Clouds will
remain through the evening before slowly clearing prior to sunrise.
Overnight temperatures will be in the 20s across the plains and
foothills and dip down to the teens for the higher elevations.
Mountain valleys may see single digits. Northerly winds coming off
the Cheyenne Ridge may gust 25 to 30 mph this evening across the
northeastern portion of the forecast area.

The persistent upper level low centered over the Desert Southwest
will remain in place through the forecast period. An upper level
trough to our north will shift eastward over the Great Lakes tonight.
This will allow for the highly amplified upper level ridge now over
the PNW to also shift eastward putting Colorado downstream of its
axis. With clear skies, subsident flow, and 700mb temperatures 5 to
7 degrees C warmer tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be roughly
ten degrees warmer than today`s. Another round of gusty winds are
possible for the northeastern portion of the state between 9am to
2pm tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The upper level pattern this week will present us will largely
uneventful weather. The closed low that has hung around in the
southwest corner of the CONUS will finally eject east as an open
and weakening wave Tuesday/Wednesday thanks to the northward
shift in the subtropical jet and acceleration of the longwave
trough over the northeast. Some remnant moisture with this
feature will translate into occasional light mountain snow
showers, with no real impacts expected. Subsident flow in the lee
of the Rockies will keep the lower elevations dry and mild.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal after midweek, but this has little
effect on the big picture. Enough moisture will be advected into
the high country to sustain a few light snow showers, mainly in
the afternoons with marginal instability. Otherwise, remaining
quiet with dry conditions in the plains and slightly breezier west
winds starting around Thursday.

The troughing pattern becomes more pronounced in the west as we
approach the weekend, leading to reinforced westerly flow and
moisture advection that will lead to increase in snow showers for
the mountains initially, and more cloud cover for all areas. A
cold front may bring an elevated potential for a few showers to
the plains by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1206 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The trend from broken to scattered for the cloud deck around 060
as already begun, with VFR conditions expected through the period.
Light drainage winds early this morning, will shift to the west
by 15z, the north-northwest by 19z, there will then be a shift
back to drainage after 01z this evening.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Bonner
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...Cooper


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