Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 201022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS HOUR. CYCLONE WELL EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO EVIDENT IS THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD
BACKWASHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM DENVER NORTHWARD IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM WYOMING. HOWEVER
SHOULD SEE A REVERSAL IN THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO NERN COLORADO AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS SERN COLORADO. PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD
MANAGE TO DESTABLIZE THE BNDRY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY TO SPARK A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK EVEN BETTER ACROSS THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. FURTHER HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
T-STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WHEREAS THE
PLAINS AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK AS UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK
END TO SHOWERS AND CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...MODEL 850-700 MB RH AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW ANOTHER SURGE OF RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR BACKING INTO
NERN COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A BANK OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND 09Z...AND UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE BY 12Z. HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE FCST GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 60
TO MID 70S ON THE PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

FOR MONDAY...NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE IN POST FRONTAL REGIME AS
WINDS SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME STRATUS
MONDAY AM ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A RELATIVELY STABLE
AIRMASS. SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES INLAND OFF WEST COAST WITH
INCREASING DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. CLOSER TO
THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER COULD BE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS STREAMING NORTHWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE OVER IN KANSAS BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHEST IMPACT WOULD BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND POSSIBLY
FURTHER EAST DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN REMAIN
OR GETS FLUSHED OUT.

THE BROAD UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POSSIBLE COOLING
MAY LOWER ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER SPARSE
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER COLORADO AND KEEP MOST OF THE POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND BREEZY FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROF.
THE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
LATE SATURDAY MAY GET INTERESTING AGAIN AS NEXT STRONG UPPER TROF
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH POSSIBLE STORMS OVER THE FAR EAST
PLAINS WITH INCREASING MOIST...SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE DENVER AREA
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY EVEN WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 19Z TODAY. SHOWERS WILL FORM FIRST NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE METRO
AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6-12KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SWING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE TO A NORTHWEST-
NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT 7-14 KTS AFTER 17Z THIS MORNING. COULD
SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO 20KTS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY IN THE DENVER AREA WITH
CLEARING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF RELATIVELY COOL
AND MOIST AIR IS FORECAST TO BACK UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE AFTER
09Z. COULD SEE CLOUD BASES IN THE DENVER AREA LOWERING TO AROUND
4000 FEET AGL BY 12Z/MONDAY...BUT NO PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION WEATHER...BAKER|



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