


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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094 FXUS65 KBOU 100844 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 244 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/thunderstorms today. Gusty winds of 30-50 mph will be common. A few gusts up to 65 mph will be possible. - Critical fire weather conditions across South Park today. - Scattered to numerous late day showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 244 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 It is a very warm morning out there! At 2 AM, temperatures across the urban corridor are in the lower to mid 80s. Cloud cover and downslope winds associated with an upper level trough moving across the region is keeping temperatures very warm after yesterday`s hot day. There`s not much moisture at the low levels of the atmosphere with dew points only in the 30s. Mid and high level moisture is producing high-based showers with gusty outflow winds and little to no rainfall. This is expected to continue through sunrise. There may be a brief break in cloud cover and showers to warm up this morning. Best lift from the trough moves through late morning in the mountains and early afternoon along the I-25 corridor. We`ll see scattered showers/thunderstorms develop from this lift. Strong wind gusts up to 65 mph will be possible under the strongest down bursts. However, most locations should see brief 30-50 mph gusts when the showers/thunderstorms roll through. Rainfall could be briefly moderate or heavy, but amounts are expected to stay under a quarter inch. The gusty outflow winds will be the main threat today. Showers and thunderstorms linger into the evening hours over the plains, but the rest of the area is expected to finished with the showers and thunderstorms by early evening. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Radar and satellite pictures are showing limited convection developing over the northern border plains and southeastern plains of the CWA currently. For this afternoon and evening, convection will be minimal, 10-20%s over the plains. However, even weak showers of virga could produce significant downdraft outflow winds. Models have the upper ridge center push westward overnight tonight and on Thursday with the ridge flattening. A weak upper trough moves across the CWA on Thursday. It will usher in a cooler airmass with some increased moisture and limited upward synoptic scale energy. Will keep the going 30-60% pops in. Strong outflow winds can again be expected. Concerning the Fire Weather Watch in South Park for Thursday, conditions remain marginal at this time for a Red Flag Warning so will leave the watch going for now. There will be weak northwesterly flow aloft Thursday night into Friday, then more weak upper troughing late Friday night/Saturday morning. CAPE is fairly decent both late day Friday and Saturday with precipitable water values over 1.00 inch for most of the plains both days. Heavier rainfall amounts are possible with the 30-70% pops. Look at the later days, Sunday through Wednesday, the upper ridge moves back into Colorado Sunday and Monday, but it`s center stays southwest of the state. There is more upper troughing, mostly north of us, on Tuesday and Wednesday, but just enough to bring cooler air to the CWA both days. For pops, Sunday is the driest day, with limited convection relegated to just the mountains. Late day convection and precipitation chances increase Monday through Wednesday; out on the plains as well, with Wednesday having the highs pops. Denver could see two days with 90 degree or plus temperatures both Sunday and Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesdsay`s highs will cool to below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1136 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Wind forecast for tonight, Thursday morning, and Thursday afternoon is challenging and highly uncertain. An upper level wave is producing high-based showers across Colorado at this time and will continue into Thursday morning. Very little to no rainfall is expected, but dry microbursts/outflow winds will continue to bring wind shifts all the way through Thursday afternoon. Latest model runs have been showing a wave of thunderstorms moving through between 18Z and 22Z with strong outflow winds of 40-50 knots. The shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be done 22-24Z. Northeast winds are expected to prevail behind the exiting convection around 00Z Friday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ214. && $$ UPDATE...Meier DISCUSSION...rjk AVIATION...Meier