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000
FXUS65 KBOU 272112
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
312 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS... FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STORMS WITH ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG. THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE ONE OUT EITHER. THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR STORMS.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S VALUES WITH A LITTLE OVER
AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MORNING MAY
START OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THOUGH MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH THEM AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. USING DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S YIELD CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. THIS AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WITH ONE INCH
POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT
IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO DUE EASTERLY. A COOLER AIR MASS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS UBIQUITOUS THROUGH THE PERIODS
...ESPECIALLY FORM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS ARE IN THE
0.90 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THEY DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
PRETTY MOIST. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOW SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS PROGED ON THE ALL THE MODELS FOR THE WESTERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS LITTLE. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER VALUES AND
BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAPE MINIMAL IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...
WILL KEEP "CHANCE"S GOING MONDAY EVENING. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 50-70%S FOR THE CWA.
WILL DECREASE THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
ANOTHER 2-5 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE
AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON
FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF
THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
TOTALLY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z
TODAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40
KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WESTERN PARTS OF DENVER. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 6000
FEET TONIGHT...THROUGH 09Z TO 12Z. THEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM WITH CEILINGS OF 500 TO 2000 FEET THROUGH 16Z MONDAY.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT A TIME OR TWO TODAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.1 INCH. WITH 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF
ABOUT 5000 FT...HEAVY RAIN FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STEERING STORMS CLOSE TO 15 MPH. ONE
INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SLOWER MOVING
STORM OR TRAINING COULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. STORM
MOVEMENT AND THE LACK OF REGENERATION WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SUCH BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD SEE FLOODING ISSUES
FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER