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000
FXUS65 KBOU 292155
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
255 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STATROCULUMUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL BUT
DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING
UP FORM THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH RIGHT NOW. THERE IS NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA ACCORDING TO THE RADARS. THE WIND FIELD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO
UNIFORMITY IN DIRECTION. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO
SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW
DECREASES SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE IS PROGGED INTO THE PLAINS BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS SOMEWHAT DRY THIS EVENING...THEN
CLOUDINESS IS ON THE INCREASE FORM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
SOME IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EAST. MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE EAST. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO
THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY
...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
FOR POPS...WILL GOO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS THE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER/MID CEILINGS ARE GONE AT DIA AND THEY WILL STAY AWAY.
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GO TO REAL DRAINAGE BY 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK