Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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518
FXUS65 KBOU 070144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
644 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SHORTWAVE PASSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING THE CLOUD
COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE THINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR ALL THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THE RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS
ARE SHOWING A FEW AREAS ON THE DIVIDE HAVING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS SOME FAIRLY STRONG WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FORM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD. SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH HAVE
BEEN NOTED. MODELS HAVE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A JET MAXIMUM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AT 00Z LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS LIKE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD OVERCOME
MOST OF THE NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS. ON SUNDAY...SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS...OVERNIGHT NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLIES. THERE IS SOME LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WELL.
FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT PROGGED FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD...WITH IS MOSTLY TO BE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS. WILL KEEP A TAD OF POPS GOING
OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ONLY. FOR HIGH WINDS...AS
YESTERDAY...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO HAVE A MOUNTAINS WAVE SET-UP
PROGGED...BUT IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A 3-8 C COOL DOWN OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH
MOVES EAST.  A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THEN A
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.  THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
PUSH ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND THE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OVERHEAD NEXT SATURDAY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BUT HOW FAST? THERE IS STILL QUITE
A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE CWA AND THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER
ON THE WARMING. I COOLED THE FORECAST A BIT BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY FELT THAT
WOULD BE THE DAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60. I WENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH STILL MORE SNOW TO
MELT...REACHING THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN THE METRO
AREA LOOKED PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
RIGHT ON INTO SATURDAY. SOME COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KBJC. THE WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BACK IN FROM THE EAST...BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS IN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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