Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 020217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE FORECAST AREA IS NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...MAINLY OVER PARK COUNTY. THE CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN DECREASING
FROM THE NORTH. EVERY OBSERVATION AT DIA HAS REPORTED OVC CEILINGS
SINCE THE 2053Z OB ON 4/27/2016. THE OB AT 0050Z THIS EVENING...
5/2/2016...FINALLY SAW THE CEILING DECREASE TO BKN THERE. SO THAT
WAS OVER 4 DAYS OF OVC CEILINGS REPORTED/MEASURED ON EVERY
OBSERVATION AT THE BIG AIRPORT. NOT COMMON FOR HERE...EVEN DURING
MID SPRING TIME. DECREASED THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER A BIT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE REAL DATA IN MIND. WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN OVER SOME OF THE PLAINS...WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AND A MOIST GROUND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT STILL VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS DECREASING HOWEVER...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
TO DECREASE AS WELL. AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
PUSH MOISTURE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PARK
COUNTY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
FALL. OVER THE PLAINS...READINGS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...LIKELY BETWEEN 25 AND 32 DEGREES. WITH SEVERAL RECENT
NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE RECENT SNOWY WEATHER
PATTERN...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING AS THE IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY ALREADY KNOWN. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH CLEARING SKIES IS WITH
FOG. IF IT DOES FORM...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED FROM
GOING TO COLD.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARER SKIES OVER THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE WITH THE STRONG HIGH ANGLE MAY
SUN. MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THERE IS STILL ONE MORE WEAK WAVE NOTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN Q-G LIFT AND A LITTLE
BETTER SURGE WITH THIS SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
THEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL INTRODUCE A
FEW MORE POPS AND ALSO BRING THEM BACK A BIT WESTWARD TO AROUND
DENVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. MOST PRECIPITATION ABOVE 5500
FEET SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR WARMING TREND IN EARNEST. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ON THE PLAINS BOTH OF THOSE DAYS LIKELY REACHING 80F.

WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A SLOW
TRANSITION BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY...BUT EVEN THEN SOME MODELS HOLD THE UPPER LOW A BIT
FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY POPS FOR THE
PERIOD STARTING FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF
THE STORM DOES DROP IN FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITHOUT SHEARING
OUT...THEN THERE WOULD STILL BE A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
BUT THREAT OF THIS SEEMS TO BE DECREASING IN LATEST RUNS. FINALLY...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF DRY LINE AS DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ON
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THAT WOULD RESULT
IN POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SO WILL BE ASSESSING
THAT THREAT FURTHER IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT DIA AT THIS TIME. THIS
WEAK LIGHT FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH MAYBE SOME WEAK
DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WILL LEAVE THE VCFG IN BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT FLOW AND MOIST
GROUND. MODELS ARE NOT BIG ON THE FOG HOWEVER. WINDS ON MONDAY
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE SHOULD BE NO
CEILING OR PRECIPITATION ISSUES EITHER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK



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