Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 122238

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
338 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

There is still quite a bit of mid and upper level cloudiness,
embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft, moving over the CWA at
this time. Much of the CWA is under south and southeasterly
boundary layer flow at this time. There is a bit of snow falling
over the divide right now, but it is limited. Models have the
strong southwesterly flow aloft decreasing overnight with a weak
upper trough axis to move into the western CWA by late Monday
afternoon. The QG Omega fields have upward energy in the synoptic
scale for the forecast area tonight and Monday. This is associated
with a closed upper low now over Baja California, Mexico that the
models show moving east-northeastward into south-central New
Mexico at 00Z Tuesday. The low level wind and pressure fields show
drainage patterns overnight, then fairly decent north-
northeastern upslope on Monday. For moisture, models keep quite a
bit of mid and upper level moisture over the CWA overnight and
Monday. There is some low level moisture, as well, in the
mountains this evening. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of
measurable precipitation over the western CWA this evening, then a
bit more over the southwestern CWA Monday afternoon. For pops,
will go up to 30%s this evening the mountains south of I-70. Will
go with 10-40% for the southwestern CWA Monday afternoon. For
temperatures, Monday`s highs will be 0-1.5 C warmer than this
afternoon`s highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

Light snow over Park County and a slight chance of rain across the
east central plains will diminish rapidly Monday night with clouds
decreasing north to south. Minimum temperatures overnight will
cool quickly as well with the high mountain valleys seeing single
digits likely with light winds and no cloud cover.

Dry northeasterly flow aloft will allow for temperatures to warm
on Tuesday before an upper ridge pushes in for Wednesday and
Thursday for a continuation of the dry and warming conditions.
Temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal by
Thursday. Flow aloft will be becoming westerly and increase in
speed, with a surface lee trough along the front range to increase
gusty west winds in the mountains. Compared to last week however,
speeds will be much lighter, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

A shortwave trough will push quickly over the state Friday to
bring a chance of precipitation to the mountains. A deeper and
stronger low is then forecast to push into southern California
Saturday to increase southwesterly flow and moisture over the
state. Currently, long term models show this low opening up and
passing over the state Sunday. It isn`t expected to be a big
precipitation producer for the plains, but there will be a chance
of rain/snow over the late weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 225 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

The winds have gone variable at DIA. They are pretty light too.
Models show normal drainage patterns overnight, but not very
strong. By 15Z Monday morning, models have north-northeasterly
flow. There should no ceiling issues tonight and Monday.




LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...RJK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.