Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 251616
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1016 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

INITIAL EASTERLY PUSH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND METRO AREAS. DEW POINTS ARE
INCREASING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN WYOMING HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AFTER 1 PM. WITH CAPES STILL FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND INCREASING
SHEAR...CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS NOT
SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY AROUND THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR...BUT
HARD TO BELIEVE THIS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AND KICK OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS. SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGES ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS...HOWEVER OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO
PLAY ON THIS. WILL KEEP CURRENT STRATUS AND FOG FORECASTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SHOW THESE LOWER CLOUDS
HANGING IN THROUGH TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. MAY NEED TO LOWER TOMORROWS MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY LATE AFTN INTO TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS BY
MIDDAY.  MEANWHILE BY LATE AFTN AN OUTFLOW BNDRY/COOL FNT ASSOCIATED
WITH TSTMS OVER NERN WYOMING/NWRN NEBRASKA WILL BE NR THE CO/WY
BORDER AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  OVERALL EXPECT CAPES BY AFTN WILL RANGE FM 2000-3000
J/KG OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN MIXING OUT LOW LVL MOISTURE WAY TOO MUCH OF LATE.

EXPECT INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE
AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY EARLY AFTN WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BNDRY/COOL FNT AS IT MOVES INTO NERN CO
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.  WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE THERE SHOULD BE A
FEW SVR STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WHERE LOW LVL FLOW IS ENHANCED.  OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECT WDLY SCT TSTMS THIS AFTN AS WELL INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR TEMPS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER NERN CO.

FOR TONIGHT TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AS OUTFLOW BNDRY/COOL FNT ENHANCES NELY FLOW INTO
THE FOOTHILLS.  I HAVE SEEN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS GO IN ONE OF TWO
DIRECTIONS AS EITHER THERE WILL BE A LINE OF STG STORMS FIRE IN
AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR OR THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT NOT
SURE HOW THINGS WILL DEVELOP SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS EVENING CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS. WITH RATHER HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IF STORMS DO DVLP THERE WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY LATE TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVER NERN CO INTO THE FOOTHILLS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARE GOING TO BE A
CYCLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH COLORADO UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY...THERE IS GOING TO BE UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TO HELP DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE LOT...DUE TO THE COOL AND MOIST AIR MOVING IN
FROM WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. EACH DAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION BEING PAID TO LINGERING
BOUNDARIES FROM THE PRIOR EVENINGS SHOWER ACTIVITIES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH AND INTO THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

AFTER THIS MORNINGS NORTHERLY PUSH...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESELY THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
23Z- 00Z TIMEFRAME WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NELY WINDS FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO WHICH WILL BECOME MORE ELY BY 02Z. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS BY 21Z BEST CHANCE OF STORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME PERIOD. WILL SEE
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IF STRONGER STORMS AFFECT THE
AIRPORTS.

OVERNIGHT WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE...EXPECT STRATUS/FOG
AFTER 09Z. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 09-15Z...THEN MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LAST THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

STORMS SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER ONE HALF INCH. HOWEVER...COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS. FOR THIS
EVENING...WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IF STORMS
FIRE IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...RPK



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