Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 311621
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1021 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WAVE CLOUD BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
WITH CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BREAKING OUR UNDER 80 STREAK FOR MAY. BOUNDARY
PUSHED THROUGH NE COLORADO MOVING WINDS TO A MORE NNW DIRECTION
AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THIS WILL
HINDER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS IN OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN FACTOR. GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...MORE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THEN CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS. URBAN CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO TODAY THRU TONIGHT AS SOME MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS.  OVERALL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
SO WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THERE SHOULD BE
SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN.

OVER NERN CO THE SFC PTRN IS RATHER DIFFUSE WITH NO REAL BOUNDARY TO
FOCUS CONVECTION THIS AFTN.  APPEARS A FEW STORMS WILL DVLP OVER THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  CAPES
WILL BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH 1000-1500
J/KG OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  MAY SEE AN ISOLD SVR TSTM OR TWO
OVER THE PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

AS FOR HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO VALUES 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SAT WHICH WOULD YIELD LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO. IF DENVER
SOMEHOW DOESN`T REACH 80 DEGREES THIS AFTN THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST
TIME SINCE 1957 THAT THE MONTH OF MAY WOULDN`T HAVE HAD AN 80 DEGREE
READING.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SOME LINGERING TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS THRU
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECT MOST OF IT WILL END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND. THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE
10-15C RANGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. AT THE SURFACE...A BIT OF A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD SHUNT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD FOR A
COUPLE DAYS. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...BUT TUESDAY MAY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO MOVES
EAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOW
MOISTURE RETURNING INTO COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE THE
LATEST GFS RUNS APPEAR TO BE ENTRAINING TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM HURRICANE ANDRES INTO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT SPREADS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AT
THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF IS ABLE TO DRAW ENOUGH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE OVER COLORADO TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH BOUNDARY
PASSAGE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH AROUND TO NW THEN AROUND TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN FACTOR. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY 22Z AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAST MOVING WHICH WILL KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST AREAS UNDER A QUARTER INCH SO NO FLOODINGISSUES
ARE EXPECTED.

WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ENHANCE THE SPRING
RUNOFF OF THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. STREAMFLOWS WILL BE INCREASING TO
NEAR BANKFULL LEVELS...BUT WITHOUT TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGES.
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
SLOW THE RUNOFF DOWN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN
HYDROLOGY...RPK


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