Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 250254
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST...WHICH INCLUDED
HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT FROM 60KT JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS BANDED PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. ..ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF GRAND AND JACKSON COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
DOUGLAS...ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
THERE BUT WILL ALSO KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN JET ACTIVITY AND APPROACHING FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STAYING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODEST
MOISTURE THROUGH 07Z ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THERE IS DECENT THETA
E ADVECTION OVER THE NE PART OF THE STATE WITH WEAK QG ASCENT. MID
LEVEL WARMING GIVES WAY TO MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY 21Z OVER
THE PLAINS THAT WILL AID AFTERNOON CONVECTION THEN CONTINUE
TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE EVENING.

ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY GRIDS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS DECREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INCREASED STABILITY BEHIND
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MODELS HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NOW MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WELL INTO THURSDAY. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS HAVE WEAK UPWARD MOTION FOR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A BIT STRONGER LIFT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED MONDAY NIGHT
AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE IS PROGGED WELL INTO THE FOOTHILLS WHICH CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE FIVE PERIODS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE IN THE 0.70 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE FROM THE DIVIDE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE 40S F IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO 60S F OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS PRETTY DECENT CAPE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY...THEN OVER ALL THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
KEEP MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE FIVE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. THE PERIODS WITH THE MOST
ARE MONDAY AND TUESDAY EVENINGS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PRETTY DECENT
AMOUNTS PROGGED TUESDAY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL UP
CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED IT INTO LATER PERIODS AS THE UPPER
FEATURE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. FOR POPS...30-50%S WILL DO FOR
MOST AREAS MOST OF THE FIVE PERIODS. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-4 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C
WARMER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MODELS NOW HAVE A WEAKENING UPPER CLOSE LOW/TROUGH OVER
THE CWA THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEN COMES AN
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES WITH INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA. THE ONLY TRUE DRY DAY NOW LOOKS LIKE
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SURFACE WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL ON TRACK FOR MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AM. HAVE ADJUSTED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH BEST SHOT FROM 22-02Z. STILL COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT BUT FEEL TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE TO ADD TO
TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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