National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBOU 162114
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE AIRMASS IS STARTING TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHC OF TSTMS WILL BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. SFC BASED
CAPES THIS AFTN NOW RANGING  FM 250-500 ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR
TO 1000 J/KG OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA. SUSPECT
MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL BE DONE BY
00Z. WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE UNTIL AROUND 03Z AND HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER UNTIL 06Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. IN FRIDAY...A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO GET FLUSHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTN...SO WILL
GO WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVR THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SO RECORD OF 91 FOR DENVER SHOULD BE SAFE.

.LONG TERM...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER FRIDAY EVENING WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS ZONE 31. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO COLORADO WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND QG
ASCENT. THE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE PLAINS...AIRMASS TO BECOME
UNSTABLE AS MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SURFACE FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT. THIS COULD HELP
INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ALONG THE WYOMING
BORDER IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. TIMING OF FRONT TO AFFECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS GFS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS WITH THE TIMING AND THUS A BIT WARMER. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE COOLER MODELS...WHICH SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS RATHER THAN THE LOWER 80S WHICH GFS IS INDICATING. TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AIRMASS COOLER
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE AREA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HELP PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR A BIT OF SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES. DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DYNAMICS OTHER THAN THE WEAK
PERSISTENT LIFT TO HELP PRODUCE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO...THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF. THUS...NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL...
THOUGH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD HELP PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S.
ON MONDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH STILL OVER THE STATE WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND A BIT MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THERE MAY BE LESS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT...THOUGH STILL COOL AND UNSETTLED.
MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FOR TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH SLIDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS THE PLAINS... AIRMASS
APPEARS A A BIT TOO CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY... MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION WITH
DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW RIDGE MOVING EAST WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME CONVECTION IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AMS CONTINUES TO
DRY OUT THIS AFTN...SO THREAT OF TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE AS WELL.
CELLS THAT DEVELOP WL BE HIGH BASED. WL HOLD ONTO VCSH UNTIL
AROUND 00Z...WITH VRB WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE. DRIER ON
FRIDAY WITH NO TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS MAY LINGER UNTIL 01Z BUT ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD RMN BLO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AMS EVEN DRIER ON
FRIDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...COOPER