Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 160613
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1213 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (< 30%) for patchy fog across parts of urban
  corridor and plains late tonight and early Saturday morning.

- Cool this weekend with a chance for light snow mountains,
  foothills, and nearby plains.

- Warmer weather next week (Beginning Monday).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The Stratus is floating around parts of the plains and foothills
at this time. Not much fog reported, or on the web cameras
either. There are just some BKN-OVC020-030 ceilings. Will alter
the ski and temperatures grids accordingly. Not much else to
change. Models are not in agreement on whether or not the low
clouds stick around all night into Saturday morning. No pops
anywhere at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Satellite imagery shows low clouds continuing to clear this
afternoon. There is still a swatch of lower clouds extending south
from eastern Larimer county into Boulder county with scattering at
the edges. A weak boundary/wind circulation is evident on surface
obs with winds turning northerly in Boulder and Broomfield. This
might be why the clouds are sticking around in/near those areas.
Still some uncertainty on how this boundary moves across the area
with some high-res guidance showing it move across the Denver metro
area early this evening. It may potentially bring in some low-mid
level clouds behind it, but otherwise shouldn`t be impactful.

Tonight expect lows dropping into the 20s across the plains/urban
corridor, teens in the foothills, and single digits to teens for the
mountains and high valleys. There is a low chance (< 30%) for patchy
fog to develop over parts of the plains and urban corridor
overnight. Model soundings show shallow moisture evident late
evening/around midnight. If it does develop, this should erode out
after sunrise. With cooler temperatures tonight and plenty of melted
snow on the roadways, be mindful of icy spots if traveling late
evening/early tomorrow. Tomorrow, expect slightly warmer highs.
Colorado sits between a deep trough over Canada to the east and a
cutoff upper low in the southwest. This is will progress slightly
eastward and bring a period of weak lift across the region. Most of
the upper support will be south, but can`t rule out showers
developing across the mountains mainly south of I-70 and potentially
Palmer Divide in the late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The stubborn closed low over the SW will nudge ever so slightly
eastward later this weekend, and help reinforce some easterly flow
at mid levels. With above-normal moisture still in place, this may
be sufficient for a few snow showers for the southern
mountains/foothills and Park County Saturday night through Sunday.
Any accumulations should be quite light, generally less than 2".
Cloud cover will linger and, with sustained snow cover across all
but some portions of the eastern plains, temperatures will remain
on the cooler side with highs mainly in the 40`s Sunday.

With a ridging pattern across the PacNW and a longwave trough over
the Great Lakes, northwest flow aloft will prevail early next
week. This subsident pattern will lead to steady warming and
drying. Temperatures look to climb into the 60`s by mid week and
will accelerate snowmelt. The warmest conditions will be found in
the eastern plains, where snow cover is lacking.

The weakened closed low is then progged to finally integrate into
the broader synoptic flow mid week and eject into the plains. As
it does so, periods of light snow showers may impact the high
country, with light accumulations for the higher elevations. These
showers could stick around through Friday as broader troughing
begins to develop west of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Light winds currently at the terminals, with scattered mid/high
level clouds around. Main concern from 06z-14z will continue to be
the potential for fog. Metars this past hour are starting to
indicate some fog at DEN and APA, for now I will keep low sct
clouds around 020 and mention vcfg. If stronger drainage winds
develop the fog should not be an issue, but if it stay light and
variable then MVFR/IFR restrictions may develop. Confidence in
this forecast is low. This afternoon and evening, broken ceilings
around 050 could impact slantwise visibilities. Light drainage or
light and variable winds will persist through 16z, then the wind
is expected to shift to west/northwest 8-12kts, then back to more
of a drainage winds after 03z this evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM....Rodriguez
AVIATION...Cooper


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