Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 301641
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1041 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY AND VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
AMPLE SUNSHINE ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...THOUGH SKIES ARE
STILL A BIT SMOKING EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. THE SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE 700-500 MB RIDGE
AXIS HAS TURNED TRANSPORT WINDS TO A SWLY COMPONENT AND AS RESULT
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES. AS OF 16Z...SFC OBS ON THE PLAINS ARE
RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 3-6 DEG F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT IN EASTERN FRINGE AREAS WHERE THE WARMUP IS NOT AS
GREAT. HIGH COUNTRY TEMPS ALSO WARMER...RUNNING 1-5 DEG F WARMER.
THAT SAID...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...STILL COUNTING ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE
HIGHER MTN RIDGES BY AROUND 18Z...AND OVER REMAINING MTN AREAS BY
MID- AFTERNOON WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE. ON
SATELLITE THE SW-TO-NE CLOUD BAND OVER UTAH/SWRN WYOMING MOSTLY
MID TO HIGH CLOUD VARIETY. THIS CLOUD BAND IS FORMING ON THE
LEADING SIDE OF A 70-80KT JET AND NOT TOO FAR AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING EXTREME NWRN UTAH. COULD SEE THIS FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE N-CNTRL COLORADO MTNS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
NOT TOO MUCH LONGER AFTER THAT ON THE PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO. FOR
NOW...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER...
FCST FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HRS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING A PLUME OF
BETTER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THE
PLAINS...IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO DEVELOP ANY MEANINGFUL CONVECTION
AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AND BARELY ANY CAPE. MAIN THREAT
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS AS WE
SHOULD BE FULLY MIXED WITH A DRY ADIABATIC THERMAL PROFILE TO NEAR
500 MB BY VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE FROM THESE HIGH BASED CLOUDS/VIRGA. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EVENTUALLY INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX TO OUR NORTH GETS
CLOSER...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

THE HEART OF THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT RIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE RECORD FOR
DENVER IS 98 SET IN 1990 AND AT THIS TIME EXPECT US TO STAY A
COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THIS AS WE SHOULD SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE PLAINS...LOOK FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME SMOKE STILL NOTED ON THE PLAINS WITH
ONLY GRADUAL DISPERSION EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAY SEE MORE SMOKE ARRIVE BEHIND
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON MON AS A WK COOL FNT
MOVES ACROSS NERN CO IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE A WK
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. THUS
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGH READINGS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SWLY.  SOME LIMITED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING ANOTHER CHC
OF STORMS TO THE MTNS WITH A SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB TEMPS
WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ON WED THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
WITH A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE MTNS. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

BY THU AND FRI THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SWLY WITH SOME
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE.  WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC
OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS.  HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BOTH DAYS
ACROSS NERN CO.  FOR SAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SWLY WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER THE AREA.  THUS WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WK FNT MAY MOVE INTO
NERN CO WHICH MAY DROP TEMPS BACK TO NR SEASONAL LEVELS AND BRING
A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IMPROVED VISIBILITIES IN THE DENVER AREA BIGGEST NEWS THIS MORNING
AS LIGHT SWLY TRANSPORT WINDS HAVE HELPED TO DISPERSE THE MAIN
SMOKE PLUME EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY...AS MORE
WILDFIRE SMOKE IS POISED JUST NORTH OF THE WYOMING LINE. SFC
WINDS TODAY AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS GENERALLY S-SELY AT SPEEDS OF
4-12KTS. KAPA AND KDEN COULD SEE SELY WINDS PICK UP TO 10-16KTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED T-STORMS FORM OVER THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...A FEW HIGH BASED AND MOSTLY DRY
STORM CELLS DRIFTING OFF THE FOOTHILLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW
MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A T-STORM OR TWO FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA IN ADVANCE OF TOMORROW`S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BAKER/BARJENBRUCH


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