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000
FXUS65 KBOU 091606
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1006 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

JUST UPDATED FCST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO INTRODUCE HIGH
SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. BATCH OF
CONVECTION/T-STORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WILL PASS
OVER LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO SEE A NEW LINE OF STORMS FORMING ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WELD COUNTY. AT
THEIR PRESENT SPEED...SHOULD SEE THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACK
SEWRD THROUGH THESE COUNTIES BY 17Z. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST SBCAPES WITHIN THE CWA TODAY IN THE NERN CORNER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALONG EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE DEWPTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN UPPER 50S THRU MID 60S. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE T-STORMS. STORMS FORMING IN THE COOLER MORNING AIR WILL
PROBABLY NOT REACH SEVERE WX POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH T-STORMS FORMING
LATER TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF A HAXTUN-TO-LIMON LINE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT A LOW CHANCE...OF GOING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ELSEWHERE...T-STORM CHANCES APPEAR LOW...
ESPLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
MEAN LAYER PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL AND A BIT FASTER AS SFC FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS
DOWNSLOPE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE DENVER SINCE MIDNIGHT HAS
DROPPED NEARLY 0.40 INCH. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT RISE IN
PW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SHIFT TO WETTER WLY FLOW
ALOFT. SUCH A FLOW ADVECTS SOME OF THE MONSOONAL/SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOATING ABOVE UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO...BUT MAINLY AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.
THEREFORE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS QUITE LOW TODAY. LASTLY...CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE FAR NERN ZONES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGS IN RESPONSE TO PASSING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH NW FLOW
REMAINING ACROSS NRN CO.  AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM WRN WY
INTO CENTRAL CO WITH SLY FLOW OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  OVERALL SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE MTNS AND WITH AFTN HEATING
SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION.

OVER NERN CO NOT SURE ABOUT TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  LOW LVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO MIX OUT ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WHILE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NERN
PLAINS CAPES WILL RANGE FM 1000-2000 J/KG.  OVERALL A WK CONVERGENCE
ZN MAY SET UP FROM NR LIMON TO AKRON TO STERLING WHICH MAY ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BNDRY.  CLOSER TO
THE FRONT RANGE WILL KEEP COVERAGE WDLY SCT WITH STORMS BEING RATHER
HIGH BASED.  OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS FOR A FEW SVR STORMS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND STG WINDS.

AS FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6C TO 7C WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

ON THURSDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS AGAIN
CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH HIGHER SURFACE BASED
CAPES AND STRONGER STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.  FOR FRIDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT A BIT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN TO OUR WEST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RIDGE ALOFT
GETS SHIFTED FURTHER WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AREA WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE AND REPLENISHMENT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT AN EVEN HIGHER THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WAS DRYING OUT THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR T-STORMS IN THE DENVER METRO AREA
APPEARS LOW TODAY...IN THE 10-20 PCT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10KT THIS MORNING
AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DIA COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 8-15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A T-STORMS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BRUSHING BY. ISOLATED T-STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS...A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWER AND THE ALWAYS PRESENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING WITH T-STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER