Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 292111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PRESENT TIME
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
SHOW THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
STREAMING SEWRD OVER NERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
NOTHING MORE THAN OCCASIONAL STAR AND MOON OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE
THESE WISPY CLOUDS SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING.
ON MONDAY...MAX HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFT EAST OVER ERN UTAH/WRN BY
MIDDAY WITH WEAKER NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN COLORADO. SFC WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER TOMORROW. MESOSCALE MODELS EVEN
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME
HIGH-LEVEL WAVE CLOUD FORMATION ON THE LEESIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH GENERALLY A
4-8 DEG F INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A 10-18 DEG F WARMUP ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW RECORD HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS REMAINS RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STORE IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHERE THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER AND GFS
SLOWER AND DEEPER. WILL BROAD BRUSH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NOW BUT
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RAIN LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DESPITE TIMING ISSUES.

DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-14 KTS ACRS THE DENVER METRO AREA AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
KTS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD
PRODUCE A S-SELY WIND OF 12-18 KTS AT KAPA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE/SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACRS THE METRO AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN A LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



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