Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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102
FXUS65 KBOU 071751
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1051 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THERE IS A JET ASSOCIATED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN WELD INTO NORTHERN MORGAN AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIESAT THIS TIME. NO ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES ARE
FALLING. THE BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND IT IS DECREASES
SLIGHTLY. THERE IS UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. THE JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME
APPROPRIATE GFE GRID ALTERATIONS WITH THIS IN MIND. WILL FIX SOME
SKY COVER GRIDS TOO AND ADJUST THE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED SOME LIGHT POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW
THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN AREA OF JET-INDUCED SNOW MOVING SOUTH
FROM WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. NOT EXPECTING IT TO PUSH IN THAT
FAR...AND WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AGAIN LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A NNW-SSE ORIENTED JET DROPPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHILE HELPING TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE GRADIENT CAUSING THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE MODERATED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER
EAST...THE PLAINS WERE UNDER AN INVERSION YESTERDAY...BUT NOW WITH
THE MIXING FROM THE FRONT AND THE STRONG WINDS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 50 KTS ABOUT 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND...DON`T BELIEVE ENOUGH
MIXING WILL OCCUR TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN...HOWEVER EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CRUSTED
OVER....BUT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS WITH LOOSER SNOW THAT CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO
YESTERDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN MAY HELP KEEP
THEM FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A DRY AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEK. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO SLOWLY DECREASING. UNTIL THEN...
IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME THEIR WARMING TREND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BY TUESDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND THEN
LOWER TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO AID WARMING. A HEALTHY SNOWPACK ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL HAVE MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR THERE...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS PUSHING TO 50F OR HIGHER BY WEDNESDAY AS
SNOWMELT AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER APPEARS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...LOOKS LIKE MORE
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRETTY DECENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT DIA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATER AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS BY SUNSET.
THERE IS A BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ASSOCCIATED WITH A JET MAXIMUM
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF DIA. THIS SHOULDN`T GET INTO THE AIRPORT
...BUT WITH THE JET AROUND THERE IS ALWAYS SOME CHANCE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK



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