Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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130
FXUS65 KBOU 050152
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
652 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

SATELLITE SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING EAST ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS IS BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE STATE
ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS IT SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. INCREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS. ANY SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. MAYBE A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CLOUDS ARE COVERING MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH. THE RADARS TO THE WEST ARE SHOWING SNOWFALL NEARING OUR
WESTERN CWA. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...75 TO 90 KNOT
DUE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA. THERE IS SOME
UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THERE IS PRETTY DECENT
DOWNWARD MOTION IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
WEAK DOWNSLOPING THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST AREAS
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. THE WINDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS PRETTY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LEEWARD DRYING FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS. THE PLAINS DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY...AND THERE WILL BE A TAD OF CLOUDINESS
LINGERING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME LIMITED
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL NOTED ON THE QPF FIELDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THE MOST IN THE MOUNTAINS. VALUES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
FOR POPS...WILL STAY THE COURSE...WITH 50-80%S IN THE MOUNTAINS
...WITH "CHANCE"S ELSEWHERE...AND EVEN "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OVER THE
LOWER FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. FOR TEMPERATURES...
FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THIS AFTERNOON`S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A GENERAL LACK OF STORMINESS ACROSS
COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY STARTING ON SATURDAY. ONE
LAST TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF COLORADO SATURDAY. EACH OF THE MODELS ARE SHYING AWAY FROM
PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER COLORADO...IF ANY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY AFTER SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...STRONG HEIGHT RISES
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INCLUDING COLORADO. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER THE
FOOTHILLS...BUT NO OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST THAT
WINDS MAY NOT BECOME A PROBLEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER COLORADO TONIGHT. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 3000 TO 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY FALL
BELOW 2 MILES. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH AT THE
DENVER AIRPORTS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR AROUND 12Z AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER



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