Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 190341
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
941 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

Skies are virtually clear at this hour with strong southeast winds
on the plains keeping temperatures up. We should see some decrease
in wind and a few thin high clouds by morning. Could be a
candidate for both the high min and max temperature records on
Sunday...65 and 98 respectively. Current forecast is in good
shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

Broad high pressure aloft centered across New Mexico will shift a
bit North and become more elongated across Colorado on Sunday.
Mid level warming and inversion at 550mb will keep from any
storms developing through tonight and much of Sunday. Low level
warming will continue on Sunday as temperatures warm even more
into the mid and upper 90s. Record high for Denver is 98 degrees
so will be flirting with record high temperatures for the day.
Still looks like another dry day on Sunday but approaching may
lead to a stray storm by Sunday evening (see more on this below).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

an elongated dome of hot air aloft denoted by 597-600 decimeter
500 mb heights over colorado sunday night pretty much remains
anchored over the region through tuesday. beneath this ridge
models still show a weak cold front beneath slipping south across
northeast Colorado. How far south remains somewhat uncertain. GFS
moves it as far south as the i-70 corridor and Denver metro area
Sunday evening. The NAM indicates a similar movement but a frontal
bndry not as well defined. The ECMWF suggests a weak push south
along the I-25 corridor down to about the Denver metro area in the
evening but then washes it out with a return to a southerly low
level flow. Will side with the GFS and NAM and go with frontal
passage Sunday evening and with its passage a slight chance of
t-storms. Updrafts may be able to obtain sufficient height with a
passing weak mid-level shortwave which would briefly weaken the
strong capping inversion over the region. Still would not count on
much qpf from isolated storm cells even with precipitable water
approaching an inch. By Monday morning GFS and NAM show this
frontal bndry well south of the forecast area...yet a weak
relatively moist and cooler upslope flow remains in place east of
the mtns. Cross sections indicate low clouds banked up against the
foothills during the morning hours...then burn off with mixing by
midday. Then another round of late t-storms with heating mainly
over and near the Front Range mtns. Temperatures on the plains
Monday about 10 deg f lower than the day before. Higher humidities
will also reduce the wildland fire danger.

Rest of the week...the hot upper ridge over the center of the
country regains its strength with a 599 decimeter 500mb height
over southern Colorado. Show see temperatures return to the
low/mid 90s on the plains and humidities decrease some with a
south-southwest low to mid-level flow. On Tuesday...t-storm
chances will be lower and isolated late day convection should be
largely confined to the higher terrain. By Wednesday...models
show some weakening in the upper ridge and shift eastward which
allows weak south-southwesterly steering winds to begin
transporting subtropical moisture up into the state. Not a lot at
first, but enough to raise afternoon/evening pops in the high
country at least 10-20 percent. May see one or two storms move
over the nearby plains where they would likely die a quick death.
Temperatures on Wednesday similar or a degree warmer than the day
before. Thursday and beyond, the upper ridge is forecast to build
over the Great Plains. This positions Colorado under a deeper
somewhat stronger southwest flow which appears to increase the
spread of subtropical moisture over the region. Models also show
weak pertabations moving up from the Desert Southwest in this
flow. All this may contribute to a slightly better chance for
measurable rainfall, higher pops esply for the high country, and
slightly lower temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 935 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

VFR through Sunday. South winds will continue at KDEN/KAPA much of
the night with some decrease toward morning.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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