Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260932
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
332 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS...AND 88D SHOWING WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS FROM NAM/RAP SHOW STRONGEST WINDS
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND WIND PRONE EAST SLOPES. CURRENTLY STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO EXPAND AND INCREASE DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS AS DECENT STABLE LAYER DEVELOPS IN THE 750-700MB LAYER
AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH DISSIPATION OF
STABLE LAYER.

INITIAL MOISTURE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IS RATHER DRY WITH MOST
OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY
AND A BIT BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE JET AND AS TROF APPROACHES.
SEEING QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE COOL DOWN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
NO RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME WEAK QG UPWARD FORCING AS TROF AXIS NEARS LATER TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
IN ZONE 31. PRECIP CHANCES MORE IFFY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
MODELS ARE QUITE VARIED ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GFS IS THE
WETTEST AND NAM IS THE DRIEST. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH THE BEST UPWARD FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE
OVERLAYED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATER TONIGHT AS WIND SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE BACK
DOWN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  DOWNWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER
BEING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL HELP A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS
DRYING OUT QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERLY MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PASSES WILL HELP WRING
OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS AT ELEVATIONS
DOWN TO ABOUT 6500 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN THE EVENING. THE CONCERN THAT NIGHT IS FOR NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...SEEMS AS THOUGH A 700 MB LEE
TROUGH MAY FORM AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING TOO
MUCH...INCREASED TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR SLIGHTLY. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
MODEL TRENDS FOR A NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL..ALTHOUGH A RIPPLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER BIG WARM UP. DOUBT WE`LL SEE A RETURN OF 80+ DEGREE DAYS
FOR THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO BRING IN THE NEXT
SYSTEM SOMETIME ON NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WAVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE SO EXPECT
SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE AM AND AFTERNOON. WINDS AT BJC MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE
WEST THIS AM WITH ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL LOOK MEAGER SO WON`T MENTION ANY IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. COULD
SEE CLOUDS LOWERING ENOUGH FOR ILS APPROACHES LATER TNT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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