Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 260220
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
820 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CURRENT 1ST PERIOD FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. EXCEPT FOR HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACRS NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA ATTM...SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
NOW CENTERED OVER UTAH. WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO SLACKED OFF FOR
NOW...EVEN IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT...SAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
FORMATION OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP AROUND TIMBERLINE AND GUSTY
CHINOOK WINDS ON LEE SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH THE FORMATION
OF A MTN WAVE. CROSS BARRIER X-SECTIONS SHOW MTN TOP STATIC
STABILITY QUICKLY INCREASING WITH MID-LEVEL WARMING PRECEDING THE
UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD ALSO SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN MTN TOP
MOISTURE...THOUGH THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK ALL
THAT DEEP. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DVLPG AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS BEFORE MORNING...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE FORECAST ALOS LOOK GOOD WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS DUE
TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW LATER TONIGHT WITH THE SETUP OF THE MTN
WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING. WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD BEGIN SEEING GUSTY WINDS AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE INCREASING...BUT
STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT
INTO NORTHERN COLORADO UNTIL LATER TOMORROW NIGHT...SO MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HAVE
ALSO LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN THAT
WE WILL BE IN THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE MAIN REASON FOR
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FAIRLY REMARKABLE SIMILARITIES AMONGST THE MODELS TODAY WITH
REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL OF THEM
HAVE THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AT 00Z TUESDAY. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS NOT VERY STRONG AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT IDEAL EITHER WITH WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPINGING ON THE MOUNTAINS WHEN MOISTURE IS THE
BEST. DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS THE FLOW DIRECTION GAINS A SMALL
NORTHERLY...MORE FAVORABLE...COMPONENT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A
BRIEF TIME SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
BE A BIT ROUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL KICK
UP SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOR A TIME ALONG WITH A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS. COLD AIR COMING IT WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
FAIRLY PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. A
FREEZE WATCH/WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A WEAK WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO SLIDE INTO
THE PLAINS THURSDAY COOLING THINGS OFF A BIT THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS HAVE
BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING. WINDS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THEIR
USUAL DRAINAGE COMPONENT...THAT/S S-SWLY FOR DIA AND APA AND
W-SWLY FOR BJC. HOWEVER LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE WIND SPEEDS PICK
UP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS..I.E. AT BJC...WITH FORMATION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN UP HIGH IN THE
FOOTHILLS. IT`S POSSIBLE WLY WNDS COULD OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS AT BJC AFTER 09Z. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BAKER/DANKERS



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