Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 031602
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1001 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ACROSS LINCOLN AND ELBERT
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK ACROSS THE
CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDS WELL UP
INTO WESTERN CANADA. TRAVELING DOWN THE EAST FACE OF THIS RIDGE WAS
A SMALL ARC OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AT THE WESTERN TIP OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING OVER E-
CNTRL CO AND W-CNTRL KS. AT ITS PRESENT SPEED SHOULD SEE THIS
FEATURE AND ITS SENSIBLE WEATHER EXITING THE SERN CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 12Z. HOWEVER CLOUDS TRAILING THIS COMPACT DISTURBANCE COULD
LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS ARE MAINLY MID-LEVEL VARIETY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SHOULD SEE STEADY DRYING AND WARMING
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION. STRONG WARMING AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH SUPPRESS
CONVECTION TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND EVEN THERE
IT MAY TAKE ALL AFTERNOON BEFORE INITIATING UP THERE. DURING THE
AFTERNOON STRONG BNDRY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER N-NWLY
FLOW ALOFT TO SURFACE RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WND SPEEDS IN THE
12-20KT RANGE ON THE PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE 4-7 DEG F WARMER THAN THOSE YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN EARLY WITH ONSET OF THE TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN...AND SKIES GO CLEAR WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE. EVEN WITH TODAY/S WARMER TEMPS...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO CLEAR SKIES...LGT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.  MOISTURE ON WED WILL BE RATHER SPARSE HOWEVER STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. OVER THE
PLAINS IT WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. BY THU THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH WILL BRING SOME WDLY SCT
AFTN CONVECTION TO THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
EVEN WARMER TEMPS AS HIGHS REACH 75 TO 80 DEGREES.

FOR FRI THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS A STG
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED NR SRN CALIFORNIA.  MEANWHILE
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY NR THE FOOTHILLS WITH
INCREASING SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD TO
A CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ACROSS NERN CO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE
WITH CAPES BY LATE AFTN AOA 1000 J/KG.  THUS COULD SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS DVLP NEAR ALONG CONVERGENCE ZN ASSOCIATED WITH A
DENVER CYCLONE.  OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
ISOLD SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE THRU FRI EVENING.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

MEANWHILE FOR THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE EVENTUALLY MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA.  ONCE AGAIN AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY WITH NO UPSTREAM KICKER I`M STILL NOT SURE QUICKLY THIS
LOW IS GOING TO MOVE.  THE ECMWF LOOKS WAY TOO FAST IN MOVING THE
LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SAT AFTN.  AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND GEM SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE LOW AS ITS STILL
FURTHER BACK OVER SRN CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA BY LATE SAT AFTN.

AS FOR THE SFC PTRN I WOULD EXPECT A SFC LOW TO STILL BE ANCHORED
NEAR THE FRONT RANGE SAT AFTN.  ALL THREE MODELS SHOW A WK FNT
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NERN CO BY AFTN WHICH MAY STALL OUT AND
ALLOW FOR A TRIPLE POINT TO DVLP SOMEWHERE NR DENVER.  WITH
DEEPENING LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BNDRY CAPES COULD
RANGE FM 1500-2300 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL ACTIVE AFTN AND EVENING.
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER UNSTABLE SO WILL
KEEPING A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS WELL.

ON SUN THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FM WRN COLORADO INTO
NE COLORADO BY SUN EVENING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW NR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA.  BOTH MODELS HAVE A SFC LOW OVER SERN COLORADO
WITH ELY LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO BEHIND A STALLED FNTL BNDRY.
BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE BEST CHC OF ADDITIONAL PCPN ON SUN
WOULD BE OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH TIMING AND LOCATION STILL
AN ISSUE WILL JUST MENTION CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE ECMWF MOVES THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FM
WRN NEBRASKA INTO CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FM SWRN COLORADO INTO SERN COLORADO.
AS A RESULT THE GFS HAS A COOL AND WET REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE GENERALLY DRY.  ENSEMBLE DATA IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WELL SO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS
VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 855 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z...THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KALINA
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...KALINA


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