Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 152126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
326 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Thunderstorm developing over the Front Range Foothills and Palmer
Divide will continue to spread north and east through this
afternoon. Latest surface analysis indicating precipitable water
values around 0.80 in Denver to 1.2 inches near the NE border.
100 mb ML CAPES in the 1000-1500 j/kg range in the urban Corridor
to 2500-3000 j/kg over the far northeast plains of CO. No change
regarding the potential for severe storms with a slight risk east
of a Sterling to Last Chance line, with a marginal risk elsewhere.

For tonight, an upper trough over western WY is progged to move
eastward and brush across the region, before exiting into NE by
18z Tuesday. Weak mid level qg ascent will be over the cwa tonight
and Wednesday morning, with weak mid level qg descent in the
afternoon.  The strongest storm late this afternoon and evening
will occur along and south of a cold front that is progged to push
north to south across the cwa after 00Z. Due to the high water
content locally heavy rainfall also likely along with potential
flooding toward NE and KS this evening. No flash flood watches
planned but will need to keep an eye on Washington and eastern
Morgan counties, where a few locations were hit with heavy rain
earlier in the week. Low overcast stratus may occur over the urban
corridor through the morning, with some residual shower activity
across southern and eastern parts of the cwa.

Wednesday afternoon, in spite of the mid level subsidence behind
the trough, there should be enough moisture coupled with afternoon
heating to initiate another around of showers and thunderstorms.
They will likely not be as intense as those expected this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

An unsettled pattern will continue through the extended with near
normal temperatures. By Wednesday evening the upper trough will
have moved east over Kansas. PW values will increase against the
foothills with ESE flow against the higher terrain. This will help
CAPE values get into the 300 to 400 j/kg range by 00z Thursday.
This will allow for storms to continue into the late evening hours
over the higher terrain and foothills due to continued orographic
lift. On the plains conditions will stabilize enough to keep most
convection to the west.

On Thursday, models indicate another weak shortwave moving over
the NE plains bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Closer to the foothills conditions will be drier in the lower
levels due to more westerly flow at the surface vs further east.
Winds on the eastern plains will increase from the SSW into the
late afternoon and evening hours due to a building lee side trough
and a surface high over Central Kansas. This will help usher in
moisture from the south and increase CAPE values into the 1500 to
2000 j/kg range. Deep layer shear values will remain lower in the
20s so severe is not expected at this time. Main hazards will be
gusty winds and brief heavy rain with the possibility of small
hail further east. Temperatures will be around normal with highs
in the mid 80s.

For Friday into the weekend the upper level ridge will build
allowing for a return to zonal flow over the state. This will
bring in slightly drier air for Friday allowing for decreased
storm coverage and moisture values dropping. By the weekend WSW
upper level flow aloft will allow for disturbances to move over
the state increasing chances for afternoon convection into the
start of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Surface cold front will impact areal terminals by this evening
around 01z as winds increase from the north. Isolated
thunderstorms developing around the Denver area with some outflow
possibly triggering additions showers and storms prior to 01z, but
the best potential may be this evening or or after fropa.
Showers will decrease after midnight but low clouds in post
frontal airmass with MVFR cigs developing toward 12z. Ceiling
should start to lift toward 18z terminals may still be dealing
with ILS restrictions. More thunderstorms possible Wednesday aftn
after 21z but less intense with more isolated coverage for Denver.




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