Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 021536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH
THE HELP OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INCREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A FRONT NORTH OF NEBRASKA THAT IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK INTO NE COLORADO BY THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME GUSTY WINDS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF WY FROM OUTFLOWS PROVIDED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SHRA IN A
TEMPO WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WEAK CAP WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS
AROUND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE NW BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CLEAR
OUT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN



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