Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161735
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1035 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

After a chilly start across the Plains east of I-25, temperatures
have warmed nicely this morning. The Greeley airport should see a
55+ degree swing in temperatures today, from a low of 15 this
morning to a high between 70-73. Temperatures all across the
Plains are several degrees warmer than yesterday at the same time,
and with continued full sun, very dry air, and some downslope
particularly in and near the foothills, low 70s will occur this
afternoon everywhere below 6000 feet elevation. Denver`s record
high of 70 expected to be broken this afternoon by 1-3 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Upper level ridge and thermal ridge will shift east across the
forecast area today. This will bring record warmth for this date,
as Denver`s record high of 70F set in 1970 is likely to be
surpassed by a couple degrees. It`s already very mild in/near the
foothills with current temps in the lower to mid 50s, and with
additional warming aloft, full sunshine, and weak downslope flow
we should easily reach the lower 70s on all of the plains.
Humidities will plunge with a very dry atmosphere in place, but
fortunately for fire weather concerns winds remain light for the
most part. There are some gusty breezes in the foothills, but
overall those should weaken this morning. Then, only a few puffs
of westerlies attempting to spread onto the nearby adjacent plains
during peak mixing late the afternoon.

For tonight, it will remain mild in/near the foothills again with
downslope flow. Meanwhile, lighter winds and a dry atmosphere
should allow for modest radiational cooling elsewhere. A weak cold
front moves across the plains after midnight, but this would do
little more than keep temperatures up a few degrees due to
increased mixing. Some high clouds reach the forecast area from
the west tonight but not enough moisture expected for any chance
of showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Southwest flow aloft will prevail over the Central Rockies Friday
ahead of an upper level trough approaching the southern California
coast. Temperatures will be cooler Friday behind a cold front that
will push through late Thursday night. The front will be shallow
with no moisture behind it. Highs will still be well above normal
Friday with highs in the lower to mid 60s across northeast Colorado.
There will be a slight chance for mountain snow with warm air
advection Friday night. Most of it looks to stay over western
Colorado and what snow falls will be light.

Flow aloft backs to south-southwest Saturday as the trough moves
inland. On Sunday, flow aloft is southerly as the trough tracks
along the U.S.-Mexico border. Highs this weekend are expected to be
in the 60s with the warmest day being Sunday. The upper level
trough splits Sunday with a piece of it lifting north across the
state late Sunday. Will have low pops in the forecast for this.
Right now, this looks like a quick moving system. It will also be
a warm system with precipitation falling as rain across the lower
elevations.

For Monday through Wednesday, weak southwest flow aloft is
expected Monday and then will slowly increase through the middle
part of the weak. This will keep the dry and mild weather over
Colorado. May be some moisture Wednesday which could bring light
snow to the mountains. Highs will remain well above normal with
60s expected each day across northeast Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1035 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Mostly clear skies through 00Z Friday evening, with just a few
wispy cirrus expected through tomorrow. High res models currently
have a lee trough and associated surface low pressure center
parked right over the Denver metro area throughout today. At this
time expect winds to be relatively light most of the day at DEN
and APA and generally out of the SE and then E this evening. At
BJC winds will be light and variable until later this afternoon
when west winds push out from the foothills. Drainage winds again
expected tonight at the three terminals. For Friday, a cool front
will impact the terminals between 16-19Z, with a shift to NE
winds around 10 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schlatter
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Schlatter



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