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000
FXUS65 KBOU 170213
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
813 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...MOST ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS. AN OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM
CONVECTION OVER NE AND KS WAS MOVING INTO FAR NERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATEST RAP HAS A WK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH THE BNDRY STALLING OVER SRN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY DVLP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF
BNDRY.

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BEEN SWLY EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP
DVLPS A WK DENVER CYCLONE OVERNIGHT OVER SRN WELD COUNTY AND KEEPS
WINDS SSW THRU 12Z AS OUTFLOW BNDRY MENTIONED ABV STALLS OUT TO
THE N AND NE OF THE AIRPORT. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY STRATUS
BUT IF BNDRY ENDS UP FURTHER SW THEN SOME OF THE STRATUS COULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT DIA AFTER 12Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...MAIN AREA OF STRONGER CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND
THIS...WHILE NEXT BATCH OF STORMS WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO. STABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE INITIAL
BATCH...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS LINGERING THROUGH
THE EVENING AND PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. BELIEVE THE
GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION
WORKS WELL AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL DIE OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON MONDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWEST BEHIND A FRONTAL/BOUNDARY SURGE. THIS
WOULD BRING CAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG RANGE...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WOULD MOST LIKELY SEE DRIER AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE
FACTOR THAT COULD BRING STRONGER STORMS INTO THE FRONT RANGE METRO
AREA WOULD BE A BIGGER SURGE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT.

LONG TERM...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS...MORE NUMEROUS ON THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER WEST NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF RAIN WITH THE STORMS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LATER IN THE WEAK...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE A MORE DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTER COLORADO WILL THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED STORM WITH BETTER MOISTURE THERE. THIS PATTERN LATE IN
THE WEEK WILL ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER COLORADO
WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WIL RETURN INTO THE 90S.

AVIATION...MAIN THREAT OF STORMS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRPORTS
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTY WINDS REMAINED. THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS BUT MAY BECOME VARIABLE DUE TO
STRONG OUTFLOW OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
EVENING. STRATUS THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS
LOW AT THIS POINT WITH BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. STORM COVERAGE MONDAY ALSO LOOKS ISOLATED BUT
PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY WITH ANY
OUTFLOWS/MOISTURE SURGES BACKING AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO FAST MOVING AND
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...RPK