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000
FXUS65 KBOU 172144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...88D AND AREA RADARS INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AND
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH OVER THE CYS RIDGE.
GIVEN THE WEAK SURGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE THIS MORNING...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO HOLD UP IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. STRONGEST STORMS
STILL EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS WITH BETTER SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG. MAIN THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING THE MODELS SHOWING A VARYING
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING WEST OF EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST DAY FOR A WHILE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS WITH DECENT
SOUTHEAST AND MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CAPES UP TO 2000J/KG.

.LONG TERM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. CAPE VALUES
LOWER TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE EVENING. BUT ENOUGH SHEAR
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND EIGHT TENTHS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE NO STORMS EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH PARK AND THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
READINGS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME
AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD EASE THE FIRE DANGER. ON THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES WHICH WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FIRE DANGER ELEVATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTH PARK.

FOR THE LATER DAYS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A BIT WEAKER. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SOME COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. AIRMASS LOOKING
A BIT DRY FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE FLUSHED EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP MONDAY VOID OF STORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD
EFFECT TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-23Z AND ALREADY HAVE TEMPO FOR TSRA IN
THE TAFS. UNSURE HOW MUCH STRATUS AND FOG WILL MAKE IT BACK IN
LATER TONIGHT AND FOR NOW JUST INDICATED SCATTERED LOWER DECK OF
CLOUDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME STRONG STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS BUT
STORMS ARE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP AND EXPECT MOST STORMS TO
PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH IN 30 MINUTES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER
THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN