Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

000
FXUS65 KBOU 200312
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

A QUIET STRETCH...WEATHERWISE...FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES TO COME DOWN.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE WEAK...WITH A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER NEVADA AND
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHEAR THIS FEATURE OUT OVERNIGHT...AND
BRING NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. HAVE
REMOVED ALL THE POPS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS BASED ON THE DRY
FORECAST PORTRAYED IN THE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS. MOST OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

MODELS HAVE PRETTY WEAK SOUTHWEST OR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS TO WESTERLY AT FAIRLY WEAK SPEEDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN DOWNWARD MOTION...THEN DOWNWARD MOTION INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
BENIGN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A PRETTY WEAK GRADIENT
AROUND. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DOWNSLOPE IS
INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT
IS FAIRLY DRY THEN WITH JUST SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
...MOISTURE GETS PRETTY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS....WITH SOME JUST IN
THE UPPER LEVELS FOR THE PLAINS. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
THERE IS SOME IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
NOTHING VERY EXCITING OVERALL. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR NOTHING THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND FAIRLY DECENT
MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW AND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1.5 C WARMER AGAIN. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT BECOMES PRETTY STRONG
ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
FURTHER IN TIME THE ECMWF HAS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES WHERE THE GFS HAS A PRETTY STRONG UPPER
RIDGE. WE`LL SEE. THERE IS PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE BEST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.