Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 281631
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1031 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AROUND A HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PUTTING MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 DEGREES. LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS SHOW SCATTERED
STORMS FOR LATER TODAY. WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MODELS SHOWING CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING AN INCH. EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO
THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN ADDITION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER
TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTN
WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS AS WELL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO STAY CENTERED OVER UTAH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ELONGATES SOMEWHAT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EASTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW IS PROGGED ON TUESDAY
...THEN MORE DRAINAGE THE START OF TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY DAWN. FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE A BIT TUESDAY MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT VALUES ARE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CAPE IS ONLY FAIR AND MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SAME FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
LITTLE ON TUESDAY ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SMALL AMOUNTS
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOTED ON THE QG FIELDS FOR LATE DAY DAY
MONDAY...BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT IS DRY OVERNIGHT NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THERE
IS A TAD PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN HALF TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. CROSS
SECTION SHOW A PRETTY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE CWA BOTH LATE
DAY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH
20-50%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...WITH TUESDAY`S UP 2-4 C
FROM MONDAY`S FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT A BIT WEST AND BE MOSTLY
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALL FOUR DAYS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS OVER THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE...BUT NOTING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING FROM 21Z-01Z. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR
IF THE AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM A STRONGER STORM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. THEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
MAY CAUSE WINDS TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST FROM 22Z-00Z. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
CONVECTION ENDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER
INCH BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RPK



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