National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBOU 120227
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
827 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS...GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY
OUT AT THIS HOUR. LAST OF THE SNOWFALL STILL DUSTING THE FRINGES
OF THE CWFA SHOULD END AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING DOWN FROM WYOMING. CHANGES
MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE ACCELERATING THE CLEARING
AND LOWERING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE BY A DEG OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SOONER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED AT DENVER
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTH-NORTHWEST
SFC WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT DENVER TERMINALS OF AS 0230Z ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN COUNTER-CLOCKWISE TO BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
BJC AND DEN...AND SOUTHERLY AT APA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REMAINDER UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...INTERESTING AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT ACROSS
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THERE
WERE SOME REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST. SNOW DEVELOPED NOT LONG AFTER
FRONT...CONFINED MAINLY TO FOOTHILLS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS AND
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. EXCEPTION WAS THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES WAS ACCUMULATING. APPEARS ABOUT 2 TO 5
INCHES FELL ALONG FOOTHILLS...WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW HAD
INCREASED AS MAIN LIFT PUSHED INTO THE AREA AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECAME NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWING THE HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...THE PALMER DIVIDE AND JUST EAST OF THE DENVER
AREA SHIFTING SOUTH WITH LIGHT SNOW ELSEWHERE. SNOW STILL ONGOING
ACROSS MOUNTAINS BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING. LATEST MODELS
SHOW A QUICK END TO THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WILL
MAINTAIN THIS TREND GOING FOR THE EVENING PACKAGE. SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE EARLY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EVENING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIGHT. SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SMALL THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG DEVELOPING
TOWARDS MORNING...FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DRAINAGE TO KEEP THIS
TO A MINIMUM. ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN BASIN WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA. COLORADO UNDER FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AIRMASS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH TEMPERATURE AND
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATING HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
PLAINS. READINGS TO BE COOLER ALONG THE PALMER DUE TO EXPECTED
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

LONG TERM...THERE IS WEAK FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT STAYS WEAK AND IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST SOUTH
OF COLORADO. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA INTO FRIDAY...SO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
PROGGED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAK UPWARD MOTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK DOWNWARD MOVES IN BEHIND IT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS PRETTY NORMAL AND FAIRLY
WEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE REST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY SEE
DOWNSLOPING. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WELL INTO
THURSDAY. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THERE IS A BIT OF
MOISTURE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MORE SO ON THE GFS THAN ANY OF THE
OTHER MODELS. FRIDAY IS FAIRLY DRY...THEN SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED FRIDAY NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...WILL PUT SOME MINOR ONES IN
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL BRING SOME
POPS INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-7 C WARM THEN
WEDNESDAY`S. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3 TO 5 C COOLER THAN THURSDAY. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THERE IS STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGING MOVES IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL PUT IN OR KEEP IN POPS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION...MAIN SNOW BAND HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF DENVER THOUGH STILL
SNOWING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS. IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY 03Z WITH
UNLIMITED CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 06Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS TO DECREASE BY 00Z..BECOMING WESTERLY BY 03Z WITH
DRAINAGE PREVAILING BY 06Z. WINDS TO THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY 16Z WITH VFR CONTINUING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...BAKER
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION UPDATE...BAKER