Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260246
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
846 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

No major changes this evening. There is another batch of
precipitation just entering our mountain counties...but the amount
of lightning has dropped off substantially. If the showers persist
they will likely affect the denver metro area between 1030 and
2am...then move east while weakening. The HRRR model shows another
round of showers moving through with the upper trough friday
morning...we have scattered pops mentioned so no changes to going
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The elongated upper level trough is over NE Nevada extending into
Colorado with several embedded shortwaves. Ongoing forcing through
the evening and into tomorrow provided by QG ascent and vorticity
ahead of the trough will keep showers and thunderstorms over the
CWA. Currently with daytime heating instability combined with PW
values from 0.60 to 0.80 over the higher terrain will bring
thunderstorms with moderate rain, small hail and lightning. Storms
will move over the foothills by the afternoon and onto the plains
by the early evening hours. Storms on the plains will be possible
this evening but will turn to showers overnight as heating ends.

Showers will continue into the early morning hours with
thunderstorms over the higher terrain in the afternoon. The
forcing will continue eastward during the day bringing
thunderstorms to the plains by 3 pm. Subsidence behind the trough
will help to clear out showers on the plains but kept a slight
chance over the mountains as there will be enough instability and
lingering moisture to help bring scattered storms by the late
afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly warmer then previous days
with lows in the lower 50s and highs on Friday in the mid to upper
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Upper level trof will be shifting East of Colorado and into
central plains Friday evening. This will result in rapidly
decreasing showers from West to East. Higher chances of pops will
be over far Eastern Colorado as drier airmass begins to move into
Western Colorado and mountains.

Expect a warming and drying trend beginning on Saturday and
continuing through late next week as Colorado will be under a
drying Southwest flow aloft. Expect temperatures to climb back to
seasonal normals with highs back into the mid/upper 80s over the
plains. Still expects diurnal low pops over mountains and higher
terrain areas. Most of the plains will mainly be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday.
Issued at 845 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Conditions are expected to remain VFR through the period.
Showers and a possible thunderstorm can be expected at area
airports between 04z and 08z...then there is a slight chance of
more showers after 14z Friday morning. Ceilings will lower with
the onset of storms but stay between 060 and 080. Winds will be
light and variable but may gust up to 25 mmph as showers move
through.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Bowen


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