Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 261009
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
409 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

An upper level ridge with warm temperatures and weak winds aloft
will be over the state through today, bringing another hot day to
the plains and a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. At
the surface, a low pressure area over Wyoming will keep a moist
southerly flow across the northeast Colorado plains. Temperatures
at 700 mb are expected to be around +15C, which may keep the
airmass over the plains capped and stable. However, the NAM model
shows the right entrance region of a weak upper level jet over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and evening. The low level
instability axis is forecast to be in place along the eastern
Colorado border through the afternoon, making it prudent to
mention up to scattered pops on the plains through the late
afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, brief heavy rain and some hail
will be the main threats from storms. With the weak flow pattern
aloft, some storms may be slow-moving which will increase the
threat of locally heavy rain.

In the mountains, daytime heating over the elevated terrain will
be enough to de-stabilize the airmass by midday with scattered
thunderstorms developing. Storms will have a propensity to move
eastward as they develop. Temperatures across the forecast area
should be around where they were yesterday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The upper level ridge will move over the SE Great Basin on
Wednesday bringing increased NW flow over the region through the
remainder of the week. This will move the brunt of the monsoonal
moisture to the south lowering chances of afternoon convection
across the CWA. Shortwaves embedded in the NW flow aloft will help
push cold fronts into NE Colorado on a few separate occasions.
This added moisture will help to fuel afternoon convection on the
eastern plains. Some frontal boundaries could make it into the
foothills and help spread storms westward but overall coverage
over the higher terrain will be limited. The instability will
increase closer to the KS and NE borders as moisture spread is
better. Temperatures will hover between the upper 80s to lower 90s
through the week ahead with the warmest days projected to be over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

No aviation impacts expected this morning as skies are mostly
clear with winds out of the typical southerly direction for this
time of day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the
mountains during the afternoon and then over the northeast
Colorado plains late in the afternoon and evening. One or two
thunderstorms may move across Denver area airfields between about
21z and 03z. Gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph will be the primary
threat from storms. Thunderstorms should move out of the Denver
area by mid-evening with little additional impact on airports
after that.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Dankers



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