Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 182023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER COLORADO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 18Z WITH
WEAK NELY WINDS IN THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR RETURN
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MOIST AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO. STILL SOME
QUESTION IF WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS TOO DRY...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS FORM WOULD EXPECT THEM TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION SATURDAY. THE PLAINS MAY BE CAPPED BY THE COOLER AIRMASS
SO CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEVADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. SO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEVADA
INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. A SHORT
WAVE OR TWO MAY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS
WILL DRY SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...BUT REMAIN MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER COLORADO
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SELY WINDS THIS AFTN...WL
SHIFT BACK TO SWLY THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
DENVER AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY...WITH NELY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DENVER
AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



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