Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 261632
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1032 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO OWITH WIND
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30S AT GREELEY. WITH COLD AIR INFILTRATION MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES...AND WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD I
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.   WITH
THE FRONT HAS COME SOME STATUS CLOUDS. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN EASTERN LARIMER COUNTY...DUE TO UPSLOPE AND
DYNAMICS WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WE ARE
THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LOW NOW STRETCHED OUT FROM CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE THE COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND FORCING
FROM ALOFT HAS ALLOWED THE SURFACE LOW TO CONSOLIDATE EAST OF
DENVER. BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FROM WARM ADVECTION HAS SWUNG NORTH OF
COLORADO AND WILL BE ROTATING WESTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING EASTERN COLORADO
ON THE WARMER AND RELATIVELY DRY SIDE DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE
THE LIFT WILL BE INCREASING IN THE WEST BY AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND SOME COOLING BY EARLY
EVENING. AS A RESULT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MUCH LESS ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT RANGE CITIES WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT...BUT WITH
THE PATTERN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...WE SHOULD WIND UP WITH PRETTY GOOD SHOWER
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MOST LIKELY ON THE EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA
OF SHOWERS OR IN THE WARMER AIR OVER THE PLAINS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD BE THE PRIME
TIME FOR SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS...THEN DRYING COMES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. EXPECTING THE SNOW LEVEL TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 7 AND 8 THOUSAND FEET TODAY...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6
THOUSAND FEET TONIGHT. IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO BE
MIXED IN OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS ABOUT WHEN
THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. IN FACT WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...THOUGH WITH THE INTENSITY OF SOME
OF THE SHOWERS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF HAVING PERIODS OF BAD
ROADS...WITH QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE SHOWERS PASS.

OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO REDUCE POPS
A BIT THIS MORNING AND THEN FOCUS ON THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THIS EVENING ON THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING UP ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UP THROUGH 500
MB WILL KEEP STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOWERS FROM WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE
LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE. MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MOST
OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD STAY DRY WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND
DOWNWARD QG MOTION OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND PUTS COLORADO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 700 MB
WILL INCREASE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
FLOW AND INTO PARK COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK DROP TO AROUND 6000 TO 6500 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL DRAW UP
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PUSH THAT
MOISTURE UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT AS UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITIES INCREASE. WILL AGAIN PERHAPS SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES
MIXING IN DOWN OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND QG
VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE COMING FROM MODELS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF 24 HOUR
TOTALS BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. MODELS GIVING
DIFFERENT SNOW LEVELS...FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE SOME SNOW MIXING
IN DOWN OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE KANSAS LOW ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN FOR COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW LOOKS
TO FINALLY MOVE AWAY MONDAY FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

STRATUS IN THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...RETURNING
TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO BE SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NORTHERLY TO
NORHTEASTERLY THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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