Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1133 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Wind the main source of contention today. Main adjustment was to
increase the winds in the grids for the mountains to better
reflect the current highlight in effect. Very warm today but still
think it will under the record high of 89 for this date. No
changes to current fire weather and wind highlights.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Strong West to Southwesterly flow will continue over the region
through tonight with an approaching upper level jet. On the
surface high pressure over the western portion of the state
combined with a deepening surface low over the eastern plains will
help to increase winds over the divide. Model cross sections do
not indicate a mean stable layer so this will keep the higher
winds isolated to above timberline where gusts up to 80 mph will
be possible by this evening...especially over the higher Front
Range mountains. Some increased wind gusts could make it to the
higher foothills with gusts upwards of 45 possible. Fire weather
conditions will be elevated today with low relative humidity and
increased winds over the foothills as well as portions of
Elbert...Douglas and Lincoln counties. Another warm day in store
as well with temperatures reaching into the mid 80s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Stg wsw flow aloft will remain over the area on Mon. Some
moisture will increase in the nrn mtns by early aftn and combined
with placement of upper level jet and passage of a pacific fnt
should lead to a chc of showers especially in zns 31 and 33 with
lower chances further south. As far as wind potential with stg mid
lvl flow there will likely be some wind gusts aoa 70 mph abv
timberline so will leave high wind watch in place.

Fm the foothills across nern CO it will remain dry with increasing
wind by midday in advance of the pacific fnt which will move across
the plains by mid to late aftn.  High Fire Danger will continue as
well due to gusty winds and low humidity. As far as highs readings
will be 8 to 10 degrees cooler as pacific fnt moves across nern CO
in the aftn.

Mon night into Tue the flow aloft will be swly in advance of an
upper level trough. At the sfc low pres will be over cntrl CO as
a weak sfc high moves east into the cntrl plains. Moisture will
increase in the mtns by midday and with some mid lvl qg ascent
there will be a chc of showers especially north of I-70. Over nern
CO it will remain dry with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

For Tue night into Wed the upper level trough will move across the
area with decent mid lvl qg ascent mainly Tue night.  In addition
with favorable orographic flow and deeper moisture should see a good
chc of snow in the mtns which could be enhanced by position of the
upper level jet north of I-70.  Across nern CO sfc low pres will
move into sern CO as a cdfnt moves into nern CO Tue night.  With
position of upper level jet and favorable mid lvl ascent may see an
area of banded pcpn north of the fnt.  At this time best focus looks
to be fm Fort Collins to Greeley to Fort Morgan north to the WY
border so will go with chc pops in this area.  Further south pcpn
chances look lower.  By 18z Wed the main upper level trough will be
moving east of the area as drier air in nwly flow aloft begins to
move into nrn CO.  This pcpn chances will gradually end in the aftn.
As for highs readings will range from 55 to 60 degrees over nern CO.

By Thu into Fri dry wnw flow aloft will be over the area so no pcpn
is expected.  Highs on Thu will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
over nern CO and then be nr seasonal levels on Fri.  On Sat a flat
upper level ridge will be over the area with dry conditions and
warmer temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Latest HRRR showing swly winds transitioning to west/northwest
this aftn. This appears valid based off the current observations
to will follow this trend into the aftn. Stronger southwesterly
winds aloft so could the winds waffle back to this direction
occasionally. otherwise VFR with no cig/vsby restrictions.


Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Winds will also increase over the foothills and southern portions
of the CWA into this evening. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect
through 7 pm this evening. Fire weather zone 243 marginal for wind
this will keep current highlights for today as is.

Winds will strengthen on Monday as a strong jet stream pushes
into the Central Rockies. There will be some cooling but the
stronger and more widespread winds will develop in the wake of a
Pacific cold front especially on the plains with increasing
grassland fire danger. A fire weather watch will remain in place
for Monday from the foothills across the plains.


Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ214>216-238>251.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ213>216-238-

High Wind Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through Monday
evening for COZ033-034.



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