Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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064
FXUS65 KBOU 250235
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
835 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Tornado watch has expired at 02z. Last severe storm is staying
just South of Phillips county so mainly just heavy rain and small
hail across Eastern Phillips county through 9 pm. There is still
isolated weaker showers and storms further west but these are not
expected to become severe and most of this should diminish by
midnight. Only minor changes to current grids based on evening
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

As a shortwave moves overhead, several storms have formed in the
moist airmass as CAPE values are between 1500 and 2000 J/kg and
good shear. Dewpoints near the urban corridor are in the mid to
upper 40s with higher dewpoints to the east. These storms have
already produced hail stones up to golfball size, this will
continue with even larger hail possible through the afternoon and
early evening. The southeasterly surface winds veer to the
southwest with height providing good shear for storm growth.
Surface boundaries may take advantage of the shear and produce a
few tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The current Tornado
Watch goes until 8pm. Hi- res models continue to show the best
chance for strong storms mainly from Denver County then to the
north and east. Models continue to show drier dewpoints pushing up
from the south, which values are in the mid 30s south of Palmer
Divide. This may provide additional focus for storms. Storm
activity will be pushing northeast out over the plains and likely
be done by 5 pm over the metro areas then last over the far
northeastern corner through 9 pm. Though some models keep storms
forming over the far corner past midnight, have kept a slight
chance of storms out there. Otherwise, skies will be clearing
tonight over the area which may allow some patchy fog to develop,
most likely along the South Platte River valley.

A shortwave ridge will push overhead tomorrow over the area to
bring warmer and drier weather. Only a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains and the far
northern plains near the state border. Highs tomorrow will be a
few degrees warmer over the plains, but a few degrees cooler over
the mountains where cooler air will be dropping down from an upper
low over the Great Basin.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
  There are still strong thundestorms
The next weather system in this unsettled weather pattern will
begin to impact the area Thursday. Large scale lift will increase
through the day. At the same time, low level moisture is expected
to increase with persistent easterly flow with a theta-e ridge
developing over northeast Colorado. Not exactly sure how much
surface heating will occur with the large scale lift, but still
enough instability near 1000 J/Kg to produce a threat of severe
weather, including hail and a tornado or two depending on where
low level boundaries set up.

The precipitation is expected to transition to more widespread
rain showers/embedded thunderstorm event Thursday night into at
least Friday morning with persistent large scale lift and Q-G
ascent. Will increase PoPs into the likely category for most of
this period from the foothills east onto the plains. Widespread 1
inch rainfall amounts a good bet during this period but no
significant hydrology issues expected at this time.

Drier weather will then work in for Friday night into most of
Saturday with weak subsidence. Can`t rule out an isolated storm
drifting out of the mountains late in the day or evening, but
overall looks like a pretty dry and mild Saturday shaping up.

Sunday looks mild as well with southwest flow aloft. Enough
heating and moisture to support a few more afternoon showers and
storms, but coverage still limited.

By Monday and Tuesday, upper level support and moisture is
expected to increase again with another weak wave noted. That
should support a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 820 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

a few showers East and North of terminals so don`t expect any
impacts at TAF sites tonight. Surface winds are generally light
from the Northwest and this will gradually turn more Southwest
after midnight. Should see less thunderstorm activity Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Entrekin



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