Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 230246
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
746 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE JUST FLURRIES ARE
FALLING AT MOST. STILL A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE DENVER AREA.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AROUND A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR OR
LESS UNDER THIS BAND. SO EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. PLAN ON LETTING THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
EXPIRE AT 06Z. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXTEND ZONES 34 AND 37 WHERE
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT MOST ROADS TO BE SNOW PACKED AND ICY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS WILL END THE
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
...AS WELL IS IN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHERN BORDER ZONES. SNOW COVERAGE HAS INCREASED FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT AGAIN IT IS LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT. IR SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW ENHANCEMENT RIGHT WITH THE JET MAXIMUM. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
AND EAST-NORTHEAST WIND FIELD. MODELS HAVE THE JET MAXIMUM LEAVING
THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. THERE IS WEAK QG
VERTICAL ASCENT PROGGED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MORE SO
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF MONDAY. FOR MOISTURE...THE CWA LOOKS
SATURATED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN THERE IS A DECREASE
PROGGED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE 0.10 TO 0.25
INCH OF LIQUID FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AND A TAD FOR THE REMAINING THREE QUARTERS. FROM 06-12Z
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A TAD FOR ALL THE CWA...WITH A BIT MORE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER. THERE IS A TAD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING...A BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER.
THERE IS A TAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PALMER RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHLIGHTS...THE JET LOCATION
WILL BE THE KEY. WILL LEAVE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE
SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OR NOT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GO
CLOSE TO ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. MONDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THEN CURRENT READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
I-70 INCLUDING SOUTH PARK...WITH ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE
DIMINISHING. CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS...HOWEVER DRAINAGE WINDS MAY STAY
STRONG ENOUGH AS WELL AS SOME STRONGER WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN TONIGHTS READINGS AS WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
CLEAR SKIES...SNOW COVER AND LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE WITH
EXPECTED SNOW COVER STILL. AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARMER MINIMUM
WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN OUR ACTIVE PATTERN IS SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH
INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMS AS THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKENED ITS
PACE IN THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE TO FAST COMPARED TO
OTHER MODELS. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE DOWN THE
PLAINS SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING THEN GOOD UPSLOPE FOR
ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD. THE BULLSEYE OF UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY IS FURTHER IN SW CO WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER OUR
AREA. OVERALL SEE THIS SYSTEM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT AT
THIS POINT NOT AS MUCH AS WE`VE SEEN OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO WANT TO EXTEND THE STORMS AFFECT
OVER THE PLAINS NOW INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS A
FEW RIPPLES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVES OVER THE STATE. LOOKS LIKE THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE KEEPS GETTING TRANSPORTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW AGAIN DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
CALIFORNIA AND A JET PUSHES INTO CO WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE STATE SATURDAY. WILL LOOK FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND END BY 09Z. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND BE AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET BY 12Z
MONDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY
18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ034-036-
037-039>041.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...MEIER


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