Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 230930
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH RESULTANT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER COLORADO. NORTHERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN IN A DRY AND
POST FRONTAL STABLE AIRMASS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...MAINLY PARK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS STILL A FLUX OF MOISTURE UNDER A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH WHICH MAY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.

STILL COULD BE SOME SMOKE WITH THIS REGIME BUT APPEARS LESS THAT
THERE WAS WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. WILL STILL KEEP AREAS OF
SMOKE TODAY IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
COLORADO EARLY ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH THE
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY TUESDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE
500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND BY THAT EVENING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE AXIS APPEARS TO USHER IN
SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH STG DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SEE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ON
TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY T-STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MODELS SHOW LIFTING NEWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO
AT THAT TIME. BY NIGHTFALL...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES INCREASING
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MEAN LAYER
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY REACH A PEAK WITH WEAK QG ASCENT GENERATED BY A
PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND DEEP INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD SEE LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMTS PUSHING A HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH ON THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE AND
THEREFORE WILL REFRAIN FROM REDUCING CLOUD COVER MUCH ON THURSDAY
AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE MTNS
AND MOST OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. BY
LATE NIGHT SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER THE
STATE AND THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO DRY AND WARM. MAY STILL SEE A
FEW HEAT DRIVEN LATE DAY T-STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. ON
SATURDAY MAY SEE A FEW MORE STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH AN
INFLUX OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED OVER BJC/DEN AND NOW REMAINS SOUTH OF
TERMINALS. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS
TO STAY OUT OF TERMINALS. STILL COULD BE SOME HAZY/SMOKY SKIES
TODAY AND COULD RESULT IN CONTINUED ILS APPROACHES INTO DENVER.
ANY CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF TERMINALS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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