Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 280155
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
755 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Another quiet night under clear skies and light winds. Only
change to the forecast was to drop low lying areas a couple
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Weak flow around a 700-500 high centered over western
Colorado makes very slow eastward progress next 24 hours.
Strong subsidence and drying on the east side of this
high will keep skies clear overnight. Rising heights
responding to warming aloft will equate to slightly warmer
surface temperatures overnight. With the high slighting
over eastern Colorado on Wednesday the light northwest flow
aloft will transition to more of a southwesterly component
which will begin to advect mid and high level moisture up
into the state. By late in the day could see cirrus spreading
over area and perhaps a few AC and/or CU clouds forming over
the high terrain with strong diabatic heating. Temperatures
tomorrow about the same as those today with lower 80s on the
plains and 60s/70s in the high country. FYI...normal high
temperature for the Denver metro area this time of year is
in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

High level moisture will increase from the southwest Wednesday
night and Thursday due to modest southwest flow aloft and a
subtropical jet streak moving into the central Rockies. Airmass
remains pretty stable though as there is still pretty warm air
aloft. Low levels moisten a bit, but not enough to really
encourage convection. Main threat of showers/storms is probably
with the jet streak Thursday night over the mountains and then
with the slight cooling aloft on Friday when the meager
instability should be the greatest. On Saturday and Sunday the air
will be a bit drier, though there still could be some slight
instability. Just a slight chance of diurnal showers/storms looks
good.

A stronger trough will move through on Monday or Tuesday. This
should bring a bit more cooling and stronger westerly flow aloft,
but it will be moving through a pretty dry environment. Most EC
ensembles and about half of the GFS ensembles today were slower
than the operational GFS. Fastest solutions have the cold
advection and lift with the trough Sunday night, while the slower
ones are Monday or even early Tuesday. Consensus trend toward
cooler temperatures with only low PoPs is fine at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 755 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Mostly clear skies will continue to prevail tonight and
Wednesday. Light northerly winds are expected to become normal
southerly drainage direction by 06z. For Wednesday, light winds in
the morning will become easterly after 18z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Meier


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