Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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106
FXUS65 KBOU 210202
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
802 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The thunderstorms today have been weaker with mainly brief heavy
rain accompanying the thunderstorms. Some small hail was observed
with the thunderstorms over the higher terrain. As the airmass
continues to stabilize, showers and thunderstorms will decrease
through the evening. Will trend pops lower through the evening
with just a slight chance for convection after midnight over the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

No changes to going forecast. We will continue to be in a moist
monsoon flow across Colorado tomorrow. This will favor the high
country for better precipitation chances. Convection will slowly
end over the high country late tonight...then we start the process
again Thursday with scattered storms developing over the mountains
around midday...with isolated thunderstorms spreading to the
plains late in the afternoon to early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Models have the upper ridge center still southeast of the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The upper ridge flattens
out a bit after that with its center getting southwest of
Colorado on Saturday. However, the flow aloft stays weak and
southwesterly Thursday night through Saturday night. There is no
synoptic scale energy on the QG Omega fields for the CWA through
Saturday night. The boundary layer winds should adhere to normal
diurnal trends Thursday night into Saturday morning. A weak cold
front and upslope is progged in on Saturday morning. The upslope
looks to continue into Saturday evening, then drainage overnight.
There is ample mid and upper level moisture still progged to be
over the CWA Thursday evening into Saturday morning. The
precipitable water values are progged in the 0.70 to 1.40 inch
range Thursday night through Friday evening. They decrease after
that, with values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range on Saturday and
Saturday night. Models have decent CAPE values progged over the
mountians Thursday evening and both late day Friday and late day
Saturday. The CAPE over the plains is fairly high late day Friday,
but meager Thursday evening and late day Saturday. The QPF fields
have some measurable rainfall, mostly over the mountians Thursday
evening and late day Saturday. There is a bit more progged friday
and it is over most of the CWA. For pops, will go with "chance"s
in the mountians and "slight chance"s over the plains Thursday
evening and Saturday. Will go with 30-50%s for all the CWA late
day Friday. For temperatures, Friday`s highs are 0-1 C cooler
than Thursday`s highs. Saturday`s highs are close to Friday`s. For
the later days, Sunday through Wednesday, models have the upper
ridge centered west of Colorado through the period. The flow
aloft is weak southwesterly into Tuesday, then it it becomes
northwesterly later in the day and on Wednesday. the mid and upper
level moisture fetch from the Mexican mountians decreases
gradually through the four day period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 802 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Slight chance for a thunderstorm through 05z at the Denver
airports. Heavy rain has been the main threat with the storms
today. An outflow boundary may briefly turn winds to the
northeast this evening. Otherwise south to southwest winds are
expected to prevail through the night. For Thursday, another round
of thunderstorms are expected to push through the Denver area
between 22z and 03z.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Meier



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