Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 190231
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
831 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Surface analysis shows a weak cold front pushing across the
northeast Colorado plains. This will only bring a light push of
north/northeast flow for a few hours this evening. Some
altocumulus clouds along/behind this feature, but GOES 16 low/mid
level water vapor imagery is already showing signs of drying from
the northwest, so skies will be clearing overnight. Forecast is on
track with only minor adjustments for latest data.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Satellite pictures show a bit of convective cloudiness over the
northeast corner and southwestern corner of the CWA. Most places
over the plains have temperatures in the lower 80s F right now.
Models have northwestern flow aloft tonight and Monday. Models
show weak downward energy on the QG Omega fields tonight and
Monday. Observations to the north and model data shows another
weak front to come into the CWA this evening. There is very
limited moisture progged tonight and Monday. The precipitable
water values are in the 0.40 to 1.00 inch range, west to east
tonight and Monday. There is a bit of CAPE progged this evening
over the southwestern CWA. There is more CAPE Monday afternoon,
mostly over the mountains and foothills. There is no measurable
precipitation over the QPF fields for the CWA tonight and Monday.
Will leave pops out for now. Monday`s highs look similar to this
afternoon`s values.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

An upper level ridge parked over the southwest part of the
country will produce a weak west-northwest flow aloft through
Thursday. High temperatures under this pattern will be very warm
with 90s expected across northeast Colorado through Thursday.
Precipitable water values range from around 0.60 inches on Tuesday
to around 0.80 on Thursday. Due to limited moisture and warm mid
level temperatures, chances for convection will be low. Best
chance will be Thursday on the plains where the best moisture will
be.

A cold front will push south across the area late Thursday
bringing cooler temperatures and increase moisture for Friday.
Precipitable water values increase to three quarters of an inch to
one inch. Friday. A short wave trough moving southeast across the
Northern Rockies will help trigger thunderstorms. The best chance
looks to be over the plains where the best moisture will reside.

For next weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail. At the
surface high pressure will slide southeast across the region.
This is expected to bring cool temperatures Saturday. By Sunday,
temperatures should warm closer to normal. The airmass dries out,
so do not expect thunderstorms this weekend at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 831 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR conditions will persist through Monday. After weak frontal
passage this evening, should see winds turn more northwesterly and
eventually weaken or become light drainage through 12Z Monday
morning. Diurnal easterlies expected to develop toward 16Z-18Z
Monday with wind speeds around 10 knots.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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