Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 092212
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Satellite pictures show a few clouds over the CWA at
this time.  Fairly strong northwesterly winds are blowing over most
of the plains.  The airmass in place is very dry. Models keep a
substantial upper ridge over western North America tonight and Sun
day with weak northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA.  Weak downward
synoptic scale motion is progged over the CWA on the QG Omega
fields.  The low level winds should adhere to normal drainage
patterns overnight with the exception of the eastern half of the
plains where northwesterly winds will continue.  There is very
little moisture noted on the cross sections and no measurable
precipitation of the QPF fields.  Will continue with no pops tonight
or Sunday.  Thickness fields point to Sunday`s high temperatures to
be a tad warmer then this afternoon`s highs.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

The strong upper ridge over the western U.S. is forecast to remain
in place through the week. This will keep dry conditions across
the forecast area with hardly any cloudiness. Temperatures will
also remain warmer than seasonal normals as the flow aloft will be
predominantly out of the northwest. Surface pressure gradients are
expected to increase on Monday as surface high pressure builds
across the northern intermountain region. The increased wind will
combine with the warm temperatures to keep the fire danger
conditions across the plains elevated. High temperatures through
the week will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, while overnight
low drop into the 20s. Mountain areas will be accordingly cooler.
The next chance for any precipitation over the forecast area
appears to be next Saturday, when an upper trough is expected to
move across the state. Will keep an eye on this feature as later
model runs come in. For now, the chance of snow in the mountains
and slight chance of rain and/or snow on the plains will be
sufficient.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 312 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Normal diurnal wind patterns seem to the rule at DIA. This
should continue overnight with drainage flow expected. Normal
patterns should continue on Sunday with weak northeasterlies by
late morning and afternoon.  There will be no ceiling issues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Critical fire danger weather conditions are in place right now
over most of the plains of the CWA. This is expected to continue
through sunset. Relative humidities will come up after sunset, and
the winds should die down a bit. Will leave the warning going
through 5 PM this afternoon. Winds will be weaker on Sunday so
critical fire danger conditions are not expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ238-242-
244-246-248>251.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...RJK
FIRE WEATHER...RJK



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