000
FXUS65 KBOU 171646
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1046 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SATELLITE INDICATING STRATUS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER NEAR WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.
BASED ON WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS...FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.
STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODING ALONG THE EDGES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE WITH
LITTLE OR NO LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. ONLY LOCATION SEEING
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. BY SUNRISE...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE WAVE
TODAY. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE CLOUDS COVER. SUB
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. WILL NOT MENTION AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO. THIS SENDS THE STORM
TRACK WELL NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS CHARTS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY EVEN WITH THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SPRING THAW/MUD SEASON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
IS NOT TOO FAR OFF NOW. BY FRIDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE
WESTERN TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN
ARIZONA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT IN FRONT OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD FUEL A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND
A SCATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE MILD
TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS UPRIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION
MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING EARLY SATURDAY AND UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE BY LATE THAT MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY PW VALUES GRADUALLY
RISE AS SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS RISE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE AREA...SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS.
MODEL QPF ON SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GIVE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGS F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE
IN LARGE PART TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A 3-6 DEG F
WARMUP AND A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. LATE DAY HEATING
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
INTO A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT. BY MONDAY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN MIGRATES
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGS F ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. A WARM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS WILL HELP. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY ON THE PLAINS...BUT THE HIGH COUNTRY
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK CYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF DENVER. WINDS TRYING TO GO CLOCKWISE TO THE
NORTHWEST...THOUGH STILL A BIT SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY GO NORTHWEST
FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE TRENDING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z AS NOTED
BY CURRENT TAFS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS MAY GO SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT TIME AT KDEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRAINAGE OCCURS THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY...MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND
KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED
CEILINGS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...D-L