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FXUS65 KBOU 030356
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...ENOUGH SW DRAINAGE WIND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE DENVER
AREA TO MAKE FOG/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST FROM
LIMON TO FORT COLLINS HAD SOME DRYING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
ARE NOW COOLING AND WE SHOULD STILL GET SOME LOWER STRATUS OR FOG
IN THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT. BOULDER COUNTY DID NOT MIX OUT AS
WELL...HARD TO SAY WHAT THE WINDS WILL DO HERE LATER TONIGHT.
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH OF A CYCLONE CIRCULATION TO WRAP PLATTE VALLEY
FOG BACK TO BOULDER...BUT WE STILL COULD HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP
FROM LOCAL COOLING. MEANWHILE...SOME WESTERLY WIND SHOULD DEVELOP
NEAR THE HILLS AS WELL. SO WE LEFT SOME PATCHY FOG IN ZONE
39...MOST LIKELY JUST IN THE BOULDER AND ST VRAIN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL A CHANCE OF HAVING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF DENVER...PERHAPS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THOSE CONDITIONS AT KBJC AND 10 PERCENT AT KDEN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHALLOW COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM
THE WEST AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
DISSIPATING CLOUD DECK ALLOWS SUNSHINE TO WARM UP THE GROUND. SOME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE METRO AREAS ARE WARMING INTO THE 20S
NOW...HOWEVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL STAY IN THE LOW TEENS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT
FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW 2
INCHES OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LEESIDE LOW WILL BEGIN DIGGING ALONG
THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT PROMOTING WESTERLY WINDS TO BEGIN
WARMING AND DRYING OUT THE PLAINS. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...MAY SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FORM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
THEN BEFORE SUNRISE....SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATE.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT...MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL
BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS WEEKEND`S READINGS. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAYS...READINGS IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LONG TERM...A GENERALLY MILD WEEK LIES AHEAD AS A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A PAIR OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PRODUCE TWO PERIODS
OF WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS OVER
THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ONTO THE
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY PRIMARILY BE AN ARE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY AS THE PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW CAUSES PRECIPITATION
TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
LOCATIONS IN LOGAN COUNTY SHOW A SATURATED AIRMASS TUESDAY EVENING
WHILE SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOW 2 TO 4 DEGREE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING WEDNESDAY
AS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BE MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SHOW FRIDAYS SYSTEM AS A DIGGING TROUGH...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IT TO SEE HOW STRONG IT GETS. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT THE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF MOS THAN THE GFS MOS.

AVIATION...SOME SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING
TONIGHT...HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LEESIDE TROUGHING SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 9Z TO CLEAR SKIES/FOG OUT.

CURRENT VFR VIS WITH VFR CEILINGS INTERRUPTED BY 1500 FT DECKS
FROM EARLIER SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REFORM AFTER 00Z. WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND FLUSH
OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 09Z. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION/UPDATE...RJK/CMG