Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260215
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
815 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Have opted to expand the Frost Advisory to include most of the
northeast plains except zones 39 and 40. Main area of concern will
be those low lying locations where temperatures could drop to near
freezing. Otherwise the rest of the forecast is fine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Strong high pressure over the western U.S. and the Great Basin
will keep the dry airmass over Colorado through the next 24 hours
and beyond. Skies will be nearly cloud free. Temperatures on the
plains will be cooling into the 30s with some parts of northern
Weld County and the Palmer Divide dropping close to the freezing
mark. Will issue a Frost Advisory for zones 41, 42 and 46 to
account for these coolest areas on the plains. Otherwise,
temperatures should be some 5 to 10 degrees warmer tomorrow
afternoon as the west to northwest flow aloft advects warmer
air over the Rocky Mountain region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

There is upper ridging over Colorado and weak flow aloft Monday
night through Wednesday night. There is a close upper low over the
southwestern United states that moves north into northern Arizona
on Wednesday. It weakens and is centered around the northwestern
corner of Colorado Thursday morning at 12Z. There is weak downward
or neutral synoptic scale energy over the forecast area Monday
night through Tuesday night. There is weak upward motion on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The boundary layer winds should
adhere to normal diurnal trends all five periods. For moisture, it
is very dry through mid day Wednesday, then mid and upper level
cloudiness move in from the west. There is no CAPE progged over
the CWA through Wednesday night. There is no measurable
precipitation on the QPF fields through midnight Wednesday night,
then a tiny bit west of the divide through 12Z Thursday morning.
Well keep things dry. For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 2-4 C
warmer then Monday`s. Wednesday`s highs are close to Tuesday`s.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, southwesterly flow
aloft will dominate Colorado weather. There is a bit of energy and
moisture here and there, mainly for just some hope of pops in the
mountains. Temperatures are fairly warm all four days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 810 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Skies will remain clear over the next 24 hours as high pressure
builds over the state. Winds will be either light and variable
or southerly overnight. A similar situation will develop Monday
as the northwesterly flow aloft mixes to the surface and then
produces an anti-cyclonic circulation along the lee of the Front
Range foothills. Aviation impacts will be minimal.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ038-041>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Cooper



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