Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161646
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1046 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Watching convection develop over the eastern plains on satellite
and radar this morning as more moisture and lift from the weak
upper low help get things going. As the upper low is slowly moving
east, not expecting much westward extent to the storms. However,
some indications in hires models extend the activity further west
than forecast into Morgan county. Have brought in a slight chance
of storms early this afternoon to that area. Otherwise no other
changes have been made.

Will have to watch the evolution of hourly hires models for
convection from the mountains - some are showing a surge out of
Boulder and Jefferson counties into the urban corridor early this
evening. At this point, still thinking the cap will hold on over
the lower elevations, and shouldn`t see any storms over the urban
corridor at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Mid-level circulation that has focused convection the last few
days continues to drift slowly eastward, now over east central
Colorado. Models continue to bring this too far northward while
the strongest convection on the south side is actually keeping
latent heat release there and causing the whole pattern to keep
shifting slowly eastward. Meanwhile warmer and drier air aloft on
the north side will cap convection again. We are starting to see
more of this drying reaching the surface across most of
northeastern Colorado, as well as over the northern mountains.
These areas with more thorough drying may see mostly clear skies
all day. There still should be enough moisture for some convection
of the central mountains and maybe the Palmer Divide area late in
the day. Temperatures will be warmer today, though our forecast is
warmer than guidance and what the forecast soundings would
support. Trimmed today`s highs back slightly but kept them warmer
than guidance given the sunshine and the fact that the models have
too much influence from the convection to the southeast. There is
strong warming aloft tonight, but clearing skies should allow
temps to fall to the forecast values.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

A broad ridge stretching across the southern U.S. will remain the
dominating feature through the period. The ridge will be centered
over the Colorado and the Desert Southwest early in the week. As a
result, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over
the mountains on Monday and Tuesday with just isolated coverage
over the northeast plains in the late aftn and evening. The
hottest days of the week will likely be at this time as well. For
the rest of the period, the center of the ridge is forecast to shift
to the east of Colorado. This will allow for sub-tropical
moisture to increase and advect into the state. There should be
better coverage of tstms across the entire cwa especially in the
Thursday through Saturday period. It will not be as hot either,
with more cloud cover and a better chance of showers each day. The
threat of severe storms will be low due to a weakly sheared
environment, but slow storm motions will allow for a greater
likelihood of locally heavy showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday morning)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR through Monday morning. Only isolated thunderstorms mainly
south and west of Denver this afternoon and evening. Little or no
impact expected to the Denver terminals.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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