Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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831
FXUS65 KBOU 280925
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
325 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper level low over northern Arizona will slowly move east
through the next 24 hours and be over northwest New Mexico 12z
Monday morning. A wave ahead of the low is producing mid and high
clouds over eastern Colorado. Some of the models show a few
showers and storms associated with this system this morning. Will
have low pops in the forecast for southern parts of the Front
Range.

Should see some clearing behind this wave late this morning and
early afternoon. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer
today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s over northeast
Colorado. Precipitable water values will increase today with
values around a half inch over the mountains to an inch over the
eastern plains. CAPE will also increase today with values
climbing to 800 J/kg. The best instability will be found over the
eastern plains and higher terrain. Will have to the highest pops,
30-40 percent here. Main threats with the storms will be brief
heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph.

Expect most of the convection to end by mid to late evening as the
airmass stabilizes. However, could see a few weak showers and
storms linger past midnight as the upper level low moves closer.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Monday into Tuesday a broad upper level ridge of high pressure
will stretch across the central and southern u.s. A weak
south/southwesterly flow aloft will be over CO. Subtropical
moisture will continue to sit across eastern CO...and sufficient
enough to produce a round of aftn/evng tstms both days...some of
those storms may linger overnight along the CO/KS borders.
Wednesday into Thursday...the ridge axis shifts a bit more to the
east which will allow the plume of subtropical moisture to shift
eastward as well. Still the potential for aftn/evng tstms but
coverage will be lower and temperatures will warm up as well. The
flow aloft will remain weak into next weekend with a persistent
southwesterly flow aloft. Subtropical moisture will still be
around but GFS/ECMWF suggests the overall coverage will more
isolated by late in the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A weak system will bring mid and high clouds this morning with a
very small chance of a shower. A slight increase in moisture and
instability will lead to a better chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon. Will have a Prob30 for the chance of thunderstorms from
23z-03z. A somewhat moist airmass will keep mid and high clouds
over the area through the night. South-southwest winds will turn
clockwise through the morning and end up northeast to east this
afternoon. Wind speeds will be on the light side, generally less
than 10 knots.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Meier



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