Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 151608
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1008 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Severe clear conditions prevail across the forecast area this
morning in the wake of the strong post-frontal Bora wind event
yesterday. See no reason why this will change rest of today. Even
the gusty west-northwest winds occurring this morning up along
the Continental Divide should ease this afternoon with the nwly
flow aloft weakening. However, should see winds pick up again on
the mtn ridges and higher east slopes of the Front Range overnight
as the 600-500 mb northwest flow increases with mid-level warm
air advection strengthening the mtn top stable layer. All this
will happen in advance of a shortwave upper ridge moving in from
the Great Basin. For now, need only to make minor adjustments to
max temps and winds in our forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 437 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

With dry air and light winds, temperatures dropped a little more
than expected this morning. With full sunshine and a warming
airmass, todays highs look good. Temperatures aloft would support
even warmer temperatures, but we`re into the season where the
surface cold pool will take a while to heat up and we`re no longer
realizing full mixing even on a sunny day. Dropped lows tonight
expecting similar conditions, with lows 5-10 degrees warmer than
they are this morning. Just a few thin cirrus clouds possible,
mainly over/near the northern mountains this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 437 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

With an upper ridge to the west of Colorado, models have moderate
northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA on Monday, Monday night on
into Tuesday morning. The upper ridge axis moves over Colorado and
the flow aloft is weak and zonal Tuesday afternoon and night.
There is little synoptic scale energy on the QG Omega fields
Monday through Tuesday night. The low level pressure and wind
fields keep normal diurnal patterns going Monday and Monday night.
Surface winds may be more downsloping much of Tuesday, but not
very strong. Normal drainage flow looks good for Tuesday night.
Moisture fields show it to be quite dry all four periods, with
some cirrus indicated mainly just on the GFS. There is no
measurable precipitation on the QPF fields through Tuesday night.
No pops.  For temperatures, Monday`s highs are 3-6 C warmer than
today`s expected highs. Tuesday`s readings are 0-1.5 C warmer
than Monday`s. For the later days, Wednesday through Saturday,
models have weak west-southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA
Wednesday and Thursday, then a weak upper trough moves across
Thursday evening. On Friday and Saturday, increasing
southwesterly flow aloft is progged, with the ECMWF bringing an
upper trough across the CWA Saturday afternoon. The GFS has this
feature move across Saturday night. Both of those models show
moisture on the increase Friday through Saturday, more so over the
western CWA. Both models also show a bit of measurable
precipitation Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will be
warmer than normal through Friday, then cool down on Saturday with
a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Severe clear conditions likely today and tonight for the greater
Denver metro area. Light and variable winds will dominate with a
slight tendency towards easterly breezes in the afternoon. Winds
will go to their normal drainage pattern with darkness and speeds
will remain light.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Baker
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Baker



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