Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 221520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
920 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 902 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

a fairly substantial lee trough will be in eastern Colorado this
afternoon...and is associated with the dry windy conditions. The
surface trough will swing to the east this evening...with a dry
cold front dropping across northeast Colorado early Sunday


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The large upper level ridge centered to our south will keep very
dry and warm conditions in place. The passing short wave over the
Northern Rockies will act to increase mid level westerly flow this
morning, with breezy conditions developing over the mountains and
northern border area. Temperatures will be about 3-4 degrees
warmer than yesterday as we see a bit more warm advection and
stronger downslope component. Highs expected to reach or exceed
80F over most of the plains (record for Denver is 84F set in
2003 but should be a degree or two shy). Fire danger will
increase...see fire weather section below.

For tonight, winds will decrease quickly with the loss of daytime
heating and mixing. A few wave clouds expected today and then
possibly a bit thicker tonight with the approach of upper level
moisture plume from the west. That along with light drainage winds
would act to keep temperatures quite mild along the Front Range

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Most of the forecast period will be dry and unseasonably warm as
upper ridging dominates the weather pattern across the western
half of the United States. The dry pattern will be punctuated by
one upper level disturbance crossing over the state Tuesday and
another one late in the day Friday. Tuesday`s weather system is
being handled similarly by the GFS and ECMWF, so confidence that
this shot of precipitation will develop is boosted. Temperatures
at 700 mb are forecast to remain in the +2c to +5c range, so snow
levels will be quite high...above 10,000 the system
moves across. Precipitation amounts are also forecast to be fairly
light, so only an inch or two of snow will be possible over the
high elevations. Cloudiness associated with the passing
disturbance will help keep temperatures coolest on Tuesday and
Wednesday, but still in the low 70s on the plains. Warmer
temperatures and dry weather are expected Thursday and Friday as
ridging re-develops over Colorado, downstream from a developing
trough over the west coast. The GFS and ECMWF solutions diverge
after Thursday, so confidence in the next weather disturbance
moving over the state next weekend is low at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 902 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail. surface winds are expected to
transition from southwesterly this morning to westerly and
gusty this afternoon.


Issued at 902 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Will add zone 238 to red flag warning. The northern part of that
zone will see some 20 to 25 mph westerly winds this afternoon.


Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for



SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...RTG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.