Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240211
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
811 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER. GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND PEA TO PENNY SIZE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORM IN LOGAN COUNTY. A STORM SPOTTER
REPORTED HALF INCH IN DIAMETER HAIL. TOTAL LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE
BEEN STAYING PRETTY STEADY...SO WILL AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT THEM
TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES.
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WELD COUNTY AND PAST THE DENVER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT. MORE RADAR ECHOES UPSTREAM IN
WESTERN COLORADO AND UTAH AREA EXPECTED TO KEEP SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS. LATEST HI
RES MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING AT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT
COMING OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE METRO AREAS PUSHING
EAST TOWARD LIMON TOWARDS MORNING. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND WITH THE PROGGED LIGHT UPWARD QG
MOTION...WILL NOT DISCOUNT THIS TREND. HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS OUT
TOWARDS LIMON THEN ANYWAY IN THE FORECAST...THE ONLY CHANGE THAT
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED IS ADDING POPS TO THE METRO AREAS AND EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF COLORADO WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEST
INSTBY AND QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THIS
EVENING THEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I70 WITH AN EMBEDDED TSTM OR TWO POSSIBLE.
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
MAY OCCUR WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. NO HIGHLIGHTS REGARDING THE
WIND AS THE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ALTHOUGH
SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN 15Z TO 21Z TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SNOW
COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/STABILITY AND DECREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. QG LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTING SO
ONLY EXPECT A FEW INCHES...FAVORED AREAS MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE.
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MAKING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN UPSLOPE IS THE DEEPEST. THIS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH THE FAVORABLE PART OF THE JET BEING OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT NUDGE THEM UP OVER
THE UPSLOPE AREAS. IT WILL BE COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LIKELY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW WITH THE SHOWERS DOWN TO 5000 FEET.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. A
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY. A WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH
THE SHOWERS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY UNDER CUT THE RIDGE.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE RIDGE ENDED UP WINNING AND WE WOULD
STAY WARM AND DRY. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE LOW POPS JUST IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FRONT
BOUNDARY PUSHING TROUGH KDEN AT TIME TIME WITH GUSTS TO 35
KTS...WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT KAPA SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITHIN THE HOUR.
WEAKER...BUT STILL HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-20KTS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WINDS MAY TREND SLIGHTLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO A STRONGER
NORTHWEST WIND TUESDAY. GUSTS 35-40KTS POSSIBLE FM 15Z- 21Z
TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE AIRPORTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...BUT CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ215-216-
238>251.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN


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