Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 092220
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
320 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY WEST OF COLORADO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA BUT WILL
DECREASE IN SPEED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
BENIGN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING THROWN-IN TONIGHT...THEN
WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE PROGGED ON THE CROSS SECTIONS...AND NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS. NO POPS.  WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EASING. THE AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN
WARM...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL COOLING ON
THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY. IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS
WILL STILL BE THERE THURSDAY BUT SHOULD BE LESS...AND AFTER THAT
MAY NOT BE DISTINGUISHED FROM THE GENERAL COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
NE. SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK ABOUT SUNDAY...TIMING AND STRENGTH
STILL VARYING A LITTLE WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH MORE COOLING...BUT
STILL PRETTY DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS STILL LOOKS
GOOD. WHILE SOME OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HAVE 15
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ON THIS.
MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY HAS SLIGHT COOLING...MAYBE BACK DOWN TO
50...AND WE WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW.

GFS POPS THE RIDGE RIGHT BACK UP...WOULD BE RIGHT BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARMING. AGAIN THE
CONSENSUS IS FINE FOR NOW. DRY AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST LATER NEXT WEEK IS THE FIRST SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DRAINAGE WINDS
SHOULD KICK IN...MAYBE A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN NORMAL.
SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE UNDER 12 KNOTS THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING
ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK



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