Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 152255 CCA
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
318 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

An upper level low currently over southern New Mexico has brought
an increase in moisture in southerly flow. The first initial wave
of the storm system has pushed through the forecast area today
bringing a wintery mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain.
Additional waves of moisture are expected to push into the area
this evening and overnight as the storm system moves into Kansas
by Monday. Some mid-level warming is still expected this evening
over the eastern plains, so will keep a chance of freezing rain
over the far eastern plains in the forecast.

Additional snow will push into northeastern Colorado overnight.
Models have trended to show slight upslope 700 mb flow overnight
and into Monday morning with additional waves of moisture moving
in. Have increased PoPs along the Front Range as well as snow
amounts expected. Models still all over the place with snow
amounts expected, with each other and within themselves. Overall,
expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow for the urban corridor and 2 to 4
inches over the eastern plains, with the higher amounts expected
south and east of I76. Depending on the speed and orientation of the
waves of moisture, could see another inch or two of accumulation in
certain places. The high country, especially along and east of the
divide should light to moderate snow in this set up through Monday
morning, with 2 to 6 inches expected. Temperatures Monday will be
similar to today`s readings, though cooler in the mountains. Have
gone slightly cooler than guidance over the plains with expected
cloud cover and snow. Northerly winds are expected to increase over
the plains Monday as high surface pressure pushes down along the
Northern Rockies. Gusts of 15 to 30 mph will likely produce some
blowing snow over the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Storm system will continue to pull away from the region. There is
some lingering moisture under the piece of upper trough that
holds back over Colorado, but at this time only expect a few
light snow showers into the early evening hours over the southern
portions of the forecast area. Then skies will clear. With light
boundary layer flow and high dewpoints would expect fog to form in
low lying areas, including the high mountain valleys and South
Platte River valley Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and most of Thursday will feature a calmer
weather period for a change. Warmer and dry weather will occur with
a sharp ridge axis over the forecast area. Temperatures will rise
above normal with highs pushing 60F along the Front Range by
Wednesday.

The next chance of precipitation may reach the mountains by
Thursday night and the plains Friday as the next in a series of
storm system breaks down the ridge. The first wave is expected to
be weak but a couple stronger storms would be possible Saturday
into early next week. Temperatures will likely return to near
normal levels with a better chance of snow with each of these
storms. Hard to get caught up in any details for sure this far out
given uncertainty in these waves with regard to timing, location,
and intensity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 305 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

VFR to MVFR ceilings occurring across the airports as moisture is
pushed north into the area. The chance of snow will increase this
evening peaking after midnight and into Monday morning. Waves of
moisture will produce some fluctuation in conditions between MVFR
and IFR. Expecting accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. A few models
show over 4 inches of snow through 18z Monday. Winds will be light
and variable early this evening, then increasing out of the north
tonight and especially Monday with gusts to 15 kts possible. This
may produce some blowing snow.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ041-046-
047-049>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Kriederman



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