Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 141716
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1016 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS A CUTOFF LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE IN INCREASING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SNOW ALREADY FALLING IN SOUTH PARK AND ACROSS INTO SUMMIT...CLEAR
CREEK AND GRAND COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS UP IN CENTRAL WYOMING...BUT
ALREADY THERE ARE SOME WEAK PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONT AS THE SURFACE LOW INCHES SOUTH. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER
ALREADY SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 700 MB WITHIN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WITH RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS CORRELATING WELL. AS THE MAIN
FRONT PUSHES DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY INCREASES...WILL SEE SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY ON TODAY BEFORE THEY DROP WITH THE COLD
FRONT...THIS MAY ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW UNTIL AROUND
NOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
INITIALLY. SHORTLY AFTER NOON AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
EAST...MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK AS WELL
AS THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. THE BACK EDGE DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING SNOW. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER SEDGWICK AND
PHILLIPS...LOGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. RECENT HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT TREND TO PUSH THIS MOISTURE BACK WEST A
BIT FURTHER...MAY NEED TO EVALUATE AN ADVISORY FOR MORGAN..EASTERN
ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES AND PERHAPS NORTHERN LINCOLN LATER
TODAY. AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW REMAINS THE FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT...EXPECT OROGRAPHIC
SNOW TO CONTINUE...HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 5AM MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

BACK EDGE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
DEEP STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. LOOK FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH...BUT STILL SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD ALSO SEE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS
BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE. THOSE TOO WILL BE DECREASING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AS ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY ACROSS THE STATE. ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
TODAYS STORM SYSTEM. ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR EXPECTED SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER COLORADO. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE STILL ADVERTISED TO
PUSH OVER THE STATE SO WILL KEEP A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAIN FORECAST. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATE SO SEE LITTLE
IF ANY WARMING ON THE PLAINS AND A CONTINUATION OF TEMPS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA TOWARD LATE SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS LATE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20KTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ILS CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TURNING TO ALL SNOW AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE
AFT 04Z AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. BETWEEN 04Z-
12Z LOW CIGS PERSIST BUT VSBY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. CIGS LIFT AFT
12Z MONDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...JOE



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