Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 021710
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

MAJOR WINTER STORM IS SLOW TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON NORTHEAST
COLORADO. STRONG WRAP AROUND AND STILL AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ON
LATEST PROFILERS HAS KEPT ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING IN MOST AREAS.
SHOULD STILL SEE A DECREASE IN THE DENVER METRO AREA BY THE NOON
HOUR OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWESTERLY. ON THE PLAINS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES INCLUDING THE MAJOR INTERSTATES. SNOW WILL
LINGER THERE LONGER AS WELL AND IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTS WINDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND WINTER
STORM WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DELAY IMPROVEMENTS A FEW HOURS WITH THIS
MAJOR WINTER STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

NERN COLORADO NOW IN THE FINAL THROWS OF THE MASSIVE WINTER STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TREKKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.. EVEN AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO NERN
COLORADO. QG OMEGA FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE METARS
ARE STILL INDICATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG WRAP AROUND FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STG/GUSTY N-NELY SFC WINDS ACRS FAR ERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS HAVE CONTINUED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG NELY
WINDS LAST EVENING CLOSED MANY ROADS ACROSS NERN COLORADO
INCLUDING I-76 NORTHEAST OF LOCHBUIE AND I-70 EAST AURORA. AT LAST
WORD...THESE ROADS REMAIN CLOSE...DUE LARGELY TO THE EXTENSIVE
DRIFTING. IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WINDS ON THE PLAINS HAVE TAKEN
ON A NWLY COMPONENT AND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED WITH THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM COLORADO. WITH THIS
SHIFT TO NWLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A STEADY REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
COVERAGE FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ON THE PLAINS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER DOWN FROM WYOMING. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...HAVE ALREADY
OBSERVED A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL WITH THE LAST OF THE
SNOWFALL LINGERING ON THE PEAKS...HIGH PASSES AND EAST SLOPES OF
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEXT 12 HOURS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 INCHES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
COULD STILL SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE DENVER AREA...FOOTHILLS
AREA WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...AND ON THE PALMER DIVIDE EAST TO
LINCOLN AND SRN WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. HIGH COUNTRY AREAS WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE DAY
BEFORE.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY MOST AREAS WILL
NOT FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS WARMING ALOFT AS CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE PLAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

AS FOR THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. THE WARNING FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE DROPPED SHORTLY. THAT ALSO APPLIES TO ALL BUT
THE FAR EAST PLAINS ZONES OF THE CWA. A CONTINUATION OF SNOWFALL AND
BLOWING /DRIFTING SNOW OUT THERE WILL REQUIRE THE WARNING TO REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL 19Z TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

THERE WILL BE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
FLOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY
BUT TO BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WHICH
DEVELOPS OVER THE 4 CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
WEATHER APPEARS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT A LOT OF CONSENSUS
WITH THE MODELS ON THIS ONE AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND
DRIEST WHILE THE EUROPEAN DRIVES MORE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN NEXT TROF DIVES INTO COLORADO
AS NEXT FRONT AND COLDER AIRMASS SINKS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF
AND ENDING THROUGH 22Z. ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
MAINLY KDEN AND KAPA SOUTHWARD. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE 20Z-22Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS DRIER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
ITSELF. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ036-039>041-044-
045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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