Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 140331
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
831 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Quiet night across the area with high clouds slowly decreasing
from north to south. Updated to tweak the forecast towards current
trends. No major changes to the forecast planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

The mid and upper level storm across southwestern New Mexico is
slowly translating east and will be into Texas Tuesday afternoon.
Very light precipitation across Lincoln County has diminished and
the Plains will remain dry through Tuesday under the influence of
dry northerly flow aloft. There are light snow showers across
parts of Park and Summit Counties but orographics and moisture
availability are not favorable for accumulating snow. Any amounts
through late this evening should be an inch or less in those
areas. Otherwise the CWA will be dry. Tonight cloud cover will
help offset light winds resulting in lows in the mid and upper 20s
across the Plains. Mountain valleys will be mostly clear with
light winds and favored locations could drop into the low single
digits.

On Tuesday skies will be clearing as moisture is pushed south and
east of the CWA and a surface ridge of high pressure builds east
of the Front Range. This will drive northerly winds much of the
day along and east of I-25 and help keep high temperatures in
check. Expect highs near 50 across the urban corridor to low 50s
far eastern and northern Plains of Colorado with downslope off the
Cheyenne Ridge. 700 mb temps over the mountains cool several degC
over today`s values, the result of cold advection from the north
and east. The net impact is temps in the low 30s for highs across
the mountain valleys and low 20s above 10000 feet. A weak
pressure gradient across the state and weak flow aloft means winds
should stay below 25 mph across the high country.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Upper level high pressure building over the Rocky Mountain Region
will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures to north
central and northeastern Colorado through Thursday. A weak shortwave
should result in scattered snow showers in the high country on
Friday...with mild and dry weather continuing on the plains.

On Saturday...upper level high pressure remains over the
region...with the next storm system moving onto the west coast of
the United States. Most of the energy with this system stays well
south across southern California/Arizona and northern Mexico through
the weekend. As a result...conditions should remain mostly dry
across the CWA with only a few light rain and snow showers across
the mountains...mainly south of Interstate 70.

On Monday...the upper low over the Desert Southwest weakens with a
secondary piece of energy from the upper trough moving across
Colorado. Increased moisture combined with better orographic flow
should result in a better chance for snow across the mountains. The
plains should remain dry with slightly cooler temperatures due to
the passage of a weak cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 831 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday. High clouds will
slowly decrease from north to south tonight. Light winds will
become west to southwest after 08z. For Tuesday, northerly winds
are expected again, after 16z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Meier



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