Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 261607
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1007 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY TODAY. A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST AREAS TOO STABLE FOR
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

LOW TOPPED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH OF
DENVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.  APPEARS THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN
THE RIGHT EXIT RGN OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND IS BEGINNING TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH.

FOR LATER TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NNW BY LATE AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NERN CO AND THEN SHIFT
ESE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY TONIGHT.  BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTN
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND OVER PARK COUNTY SO WILL
KEEP IN CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  STORMS WILL BE QUICK MOVING DUE TO DECENT MID
LVL FLOW.  AS FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN OVER NERN CO READINGS SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOST TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL END BY MID EVENING AS CAN SEE NOTHING TO KEEP IT GOING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MODELS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF COLORADO
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE
CWA IS BENIGN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE DOMINATED BY NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ALL FOUR PERIODS. FOR
MOISTURE...IT IS LIMITED ON SATURDAY...AND INCREASES A BIT FOR
SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 50S F FOR THE
PLAINS AND LOWER FOOTHILLS ALL FOUR PERIODS...WITH PRECIPITATION
WATER VALUES FOR ALL THE CWA IN THE 0.50 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE. THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT CAPE PROGGED LATE DAY SATURDAY WITH LESS LATE DAY
SUNDAY. THE BEST CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS LATE DAY SATURDAY
...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY SUNDAY. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA BOTH LATE DAY PERIODS...BUT
MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ONLY. FOR POPS WILL GO
WITH 0-40%S FOR THE LATE DAY PERIODS...THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE
2-5 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. SUNDAY`S ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND THE CWA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
CEILINGS ARE 2000 TO 3000 FEET AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE DENVER AIRPORTS BEFORE 18Z. NORTHEAST TO
EAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HELP TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF
DENVER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RPK



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