726
FXUS65 KBOU 291111
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
511 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and drier conditions to start the week.

- Turning to cooler and possibly wetter Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Early this morning, weak showers continue to develop over central
Lincoln County, but they should diminish shortly. The latest look
at the flood advisory near Kersey shows it has crested and on its
way back down. I will likely cancel this shortly. For today, it
will be dry and warmer with high temperatures climbing back above
normal this afternoon. A moderate zonal flow aloft will remain
over CO, with gusty winds up to 35 mph in the mountains, foothills
and near the Cheyenne Ridge. Tonight, a fast moving upper level
disturbance will brush across the CO/WY border after midnight with
a help of a 90 kt jet max. Snow showers will develop after
midnight mainly in the mountains of Grand, Jackson and Larimer
counties. There may be brief a embedded thunderstorm as well.
Across the urban corridor and nearby plains, west to northwest
winds will start to push across those areas by 12z Tuesday
morning.

After 33 years and 21 days I have worked my last midnight shift
for the NWS. That`s it, it`s over, that ship has sailed! I have
PUNished my coworkers long enough and decided to step aside and
spend more time with my family, and hope to sleep a little better
at night too. Someone else will have to pick up the mantle and
share the bad dad jokes around the office. I am PUNting that duty
to them. I have worked at 4 different NWS offices including Elko,
Winnemucca, Salt Lake City and Denver/Boulder. I am tweener in
that I grew up in Arvada and have worked at the previous office in
Denver as well as Boulder. Yes, I am that old, maybe a better
description is upper middle aged or seasoned. I am fortunate that
I was able to come back home and forecast in CO for most of my
career. We have weathered many storms together! (one last pun).
One such event was the Windsor tornado, that my partner tonight
and I worked/warned together back in May 2008. Everything about it
was atypical. My 33rd year with the NWS was actually marked by
the passage of the partial solar eclipse on April 8th! While the
shift work is the most difficult part of the job for most of us,
it has been balanced by great friends/coworkers (past and
present), and the fact that we provide a valuable service to the
community. We appreciate your feedback. I am thankful for that and
wish you all the best. To my NWS family, keep up the great work.
Vaya con Dios, Hasta Luego and Happy Trails. Foxtrot Mike Charlie
signing off.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Mountain snow with rain mixed in over the mountains valley will
be on going early Tuesday morning as an upper level trough passes
over Montana and Wyoming. The rain and snow will decrease and
dissipate as it encounters a downslope flow east of the mountains.
A shallow cold front will accompany this system, and temporarily
bring cooler air. However, the downslope westerly flow will mix
out the shallow cooler air by afternoon, allowing temperatures to
climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s across northeast Colorado.
The downslope flow will produce gusty westerly winds over the
mountains, foothills, and near by plains with gusts to 40 mph.
Because of the recent rain/snow, fire weather concerns will be
low.

Flow aloft turns southwesterly Wednesday in advance of an upper
level trough moving southeast across the Northern Rockies. Models
coming into better agreement showing the trough bottoming out over
northern Colorado late Wednesday and early Thursday. This is
expected to result in scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A cold
front drops south across Colorado during the Wednesday, so the
high temperature forecast will be tricky and will depend on the
timing (morning or afternoon) of the frontal passage. Cooler air
will be in place for Thursday. Will keep scattered showers in the
forecast for Thursday, but the bulk of precipitation is expected
to be east of the state.

Friday`s weather looks quiet under a westerly flow aloft. Dry and
mild conditions are expected, though it could be breezy or windy
with a somewhat strong flow aloft. Could see a late day cold front
from the north as another trough passes north of Colorado. More
likely the cold front pushes through Friday night and brings
slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday. Models indicate it
should be too stable for showers or storms behind the front on
Saturday.

Not much model agreement for Sunday. However the solutions,
ridging or southwest flow ahead of a trough to the north, should
result in dry and mild conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 507 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. South/southwest
will continue through this morning. For this afternoon,
west/northwest winds will should develop around 20z. Winds speeds
will generally range from 7-12 kts today, maybe an occasional gust
to 20 kts. For tonight, there will be a return back to drainage
by 02z, then a shift to west/northwest in the outlook period for
DEN after 12z Tuesday morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Cooper