Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 151351
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
651 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Areas of Feezing drizzle refuse to change over to snow
in and around Denver to the Palmer Divide so have issued
a shoft fuse advisory.  I would think things should change
to all snow by 10 am as colder air continues to spread south into
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

NW to SE band of light snow continues over the plains early this
morning in association with an upper level jet and upslope
component.  Platteville profiler shows upslope component is rather
shallow but it should be enough to allow for pcpn to spread
southward and affect the Denver metro area by 11z. Accumulations
will be around an inch but a few spots may see up to 2 inches. As
for the higher terrain areas light snow will focus mainly on the
east facing slopes thru midday.

By aftn moisture will gradually decrease from north to south with
light snow coming to an end.  As cold sfc high pres builds into nern
CO aftn highs will likely stay steady or slow fall.  Readings will
be in the teens to mid 20s with the coldest temps over the far nern
plains.

For tonight skies should clear out and with light winds overnight
lows across much of the plains should drop below zero.  Wind Chill
values will likely meet advisory criteria over the far ern areas
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Fairly strong northerly flow aloft on Tuesday will gradually
decrease becoming weak by Tuesday night as an upper ridge moves
into Colorado. An upper ridge axis is over Colorado Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. There is weak downward vertical velocity
over the forecast area Tuesday through Wednesday night. The low
level winds will be weak all four periods with normal diurnal
patterns expected. For moisture, it will be quite dry Tuesday
through Wednesday night. There is no measurable precipitation on
the QPF fields. No pops. For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs will
warm up 3-6 C over today`s below normal readings. Wednesday`s
highs will be 4-10 C warmer than Tuesday`s. For the later days,
Thursday through Sunday, models keep ridging over the CWA Thursday
into Friday. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will be in place
Friday night into Saturday morning. An upper trough is progged to
move across Colorado later Saturday and Saturday night. The GFS is
about a half a period quicker with this feature than is the
ECMWF. Upper ridging moves in later on Sunday and Sunday night.
There is measurable precipitation on both the GFS and ECMWF
Saturday into Sunday morning. It doesn`t look like a big storm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 648 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Mix of Freezing drizzle/light snow should change over to all snow
in the next hour or two.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Tuesday
for COZ048>051.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for
COZ039>041.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



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