Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 270249
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
849 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

ONLY ADJUSTMENT INVOLVED DROPPING ANY MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE MTN
ZONES THIS EVENING...ANY ACTIVITY IS WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
REST OF THE GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS OVER NEVADA AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS UTAH. THE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT
OF THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. WINDS ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL BE
WEAK...AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALSO UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW 90S AT SOME
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY
AS WARM. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ONLY PLACES TO SEE
ANY CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL ALSO BE WEAK
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN DUE TO THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW...MOST
MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MAINLY IN WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE BETTER PLUME OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EASTWARD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ON THE
PLAINS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BUT STILL CANT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING MAINLY
NEAR THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN BORDER AREA.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER DAY WITH INCREASING
Q-G LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. ON THE PLAINS...A LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES INCREASING TO
1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MEANWHILE...VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE ABOVE WILL BRING A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IF WE GET ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOOKED AT CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE AND A
FEW SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS HAVE ALSO PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH...TEMPERATURES TURN COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
THE PLAINS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DUE IN BY WEDNESDAY
IS STILL STRONGER IN THE ECMWF VS. THE GFS. INTERESTINGLY...THE
MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AGREED WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY
HERE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. NOT ENTIRELY SURE ABOUT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SOME WARMING AND DRYING
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR.
SELY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO S-SWLY OVERNIGHT...A
SIMILAR WIND PATTERN WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY. E-SELY IN THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING...THEN S-SWLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...COOPER



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