Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 230250
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
850 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PLOWED THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH RESULTANT EAST AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. VAD
WINDS/PROFILER INDICATE SOME WEAK AND SHALLOW UPSLOPE UP TO AROUND
9K FEET AGL. RADAR INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES TRYING TO
DEVELOP BUT MUCH OF THIS IS STILL ALOFT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL ADD SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE TONIGHT. ONLY SOME
OTHER MINOR CHANGES WITH MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT HAS LITTLE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WILL BRING QUITE
A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. BACK OFF OF OUR ALREADY LOW POPS A BIT
MORE. FOR MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...THEN CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTING EASTWARD. A LITTLE
COOLING ALOFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT
EFFECTS OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 00Z. LEFT THE
LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...WILL GO
AHEAD AND MENTION THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER AS BETTER
MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT COULD LEAD TO CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG. SOME ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ON THE PLAINS AGAIN WITH SOUTH
WINDS...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A MDT
TO STG WLY FLOW ALOFT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.  PRIOR TO 06Z...
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL
BE AROUND FOR AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO.  DURING THE EVENING.  BEST CHC
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE EVENING.
RIDGETOP WINDS IN THE EVENING WLY AROUND 30 KTS.  AFTER 06Z...THE
STABILITY INCREASES...MOISTURE DECREASES...AND THE WIND PICKS UP TO
40-50KTS BY 09Z.  STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OCCURS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...MORE EMPHASIS ON SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOO EARLY FOR A HIGHLIGHT
BUT WL TRY TO PUT SOME REASONABLE NUMBERS IN THE GRIDS.  ON
TUESDAY...STRONG WNWLY SFC WINDS IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.  STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAYBE SOME GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AROUND 12Z.  STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO IN THE MORNING AS WELL.  POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH
WIND WATCH DOES EXIST BUT MORE CONCERNED AT THIS TIME WITH THE FIRE
DANGER. DUE TO STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARND 15
PERCENT...IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTN PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY
FUELS...WE WL BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ZONES FROM 15Z TUESDAY TO 00Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER
COUNTY BLO 8 THOUSAND FEET...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 215. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THEY WILL STILL BE AT TO SLGTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH...DROPS INTO CO FRM THE
NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. CHC OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THE FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHE.RLY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA THURSDAY AFTN/EVNG.
MORE OF THE SAME GOING INTO FRIDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS THE PATTERN
LOOKS A LITTLE WETTER FOR NORTHEAST CO BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NOTHING CRAZY BUT WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...10- 20 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW. WL STICK CLOSE TO
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS STILL
LOWERING A BIT SO COULD BE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER
THE AIRPORTS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.  CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE MID
LEVELS LATER TNT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHERLY. A BIT OF
A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS LATE TNT MON AM IWTH NW WINDS
DEVELOPING AT BJC. APA/DEN SHOULD REMAIN S-SE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ238-241>251.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ215.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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