Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 142056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
256 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

West-southwesterly flow aloft will be increasing tonight as a
shortwave trough pushes across the Northern Rockies. A surface
trough will remain over the eastern plains as high pressure
builds over the western part of the state, to keep gusty westerly
winds over the mountains and foothills overnight. Warm
temperatures today, some high cloud cover and winds continuing
tonight will result in a warm night, especially along the
foothills and urban corridor.

Slightly cooler air is expected through push across the area
Saturday behind tonights shortwave passage. Look for temperatures
to be a few degrees cooler today. Surface pressure gradients will
be weaker so surface winds will be lighter. A jet max may help to
bring a slight chance of light showers Saturday morning to the far
northern mountains, but this will likely stay north out of the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Strong west/southwest flow aloft will bring a continuation of very
warm temperatures to the forecast area through Monday. In
addition, strengthening downslope winds and a very dry airmass
will bring higher fire danger on Sunday. See fire weather
discussion below. High temperatures will likely soar into the mid
80s over most of the plains with a few upper 80s possible in the
lowest elevations. Record for Denver is 89F on Sunday but will be
hard to reach that.

Winds will be strongest over the higher mountains with 40-50 knots
of cross mountain flow. However, lack of a significant mountain
top stable layer should keep the blasting winds over the highest
peaks. Other areas will still be windy at times Sunday into
Monday. More locations should blow on Monday as cold front pushes
through with subsidence behind it.

Some mid level moisture will finally arrive in the mountains by
Monday which will bring a few rain and snow showers into the
picture. Still anticipate just light snow accumulations at best
over the higher peaks and mostly over the northern border area.

Models still diverge with solutions with regard to the last but
potentially stronger short wave moving into the western U.S. The
GFS and GEFS have trended toward a deeper solution with the
trough over the central Rockies. ECMWF and Canadian are more
progressive but have held more of a steady course over the last
few days. At this point, will have to broad brush a bit with
regard to various potential solutions and timing, so a period of
low PoPs seems warranted from late Tuesday night into Thursday. If
temperatures are as cold as the GFS suggests, then we could be
looking at some snow down onto the plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

VFR conditions expected through Saturday afternoon. Wind
directions continue to be difficult with the surface trough
nearby. Some sort of southerly to westerly winds should continue
then returning to an enhanced drainage pattern. Winds will be
lighter Saturday. Only high clouds expected through the period.


Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Some fire danger concerns in the mountains but not widespread
enough for any highlights this afternoon. Winds ended up being
lighter and humidity not as low over the eastern plains this
afternoon. Winds will be lighter Saturday, so no concerns at this

Fire danger will increase by Sunday afternoon as
stronger flow aloft arrives. We expect plenty of sunshine for
adequate mixing of stronger flow aloft down to the surface, with
the highest probability from Park and Jefferson counties onto the
Palmer Divide through Lincoln county where gusts to 35 mph
possible. Will issue a fire weather watch for those locations.
Some potential that the watch may have to be expanded farther
north and east.


Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday morning through early Sunday
evening for COZ214-216-241-246-247.



SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch/Kriederman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.