Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 222127
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
227 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MAINLY
THIN. ON FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP A BIT AND COULD ALLOW STRONGER VALLEY
INVERSIONS TO HOLD IN PLACE. SNOW COVERED AREAS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER WOULD ALSO SEE THE WARMUP LIMITED BY A
FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. MOUNTAIN TOPS SHOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD WEST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE
TO INCREASED MOISTURE. THERE IS NO QG LIFT OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO BRING SNOW TO THE PLAINS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE PROVIDED
BY THE WAVE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. 850 MB MODELS SHOWING TEMPERATURES 2-3 C WARMER ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FOR THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT
MINOR DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH AND CLIPPING THE NE
CORNER OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE NE
PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED WINDS TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. THE PLAINS WILL STAY DRY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE FOOTHILLS FROM THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE WEST AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS.

FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY STRONG RIDGING WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS THE WAVE INTO COLORADO BY LATE TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW. A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH HELPS TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION OFF THE PLAINS. THE EC BECOMES VERY ZONAL WITH A
WEAK WAVE ON WED EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED WITH THE
00Z SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION MAY LOWER TO AROUND
9000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 06-13KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z-14Z FRIDAY...THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY 16Z-22Z FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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