Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 100844
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
244 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD
THRU THIS AFTN INTO NRN CO WITH THE MID FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS HAVE DECREASED AROUND 25%
FROM YESTERDAY WHILE OVER WRN CO THEY ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
MEANWHILE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD MID LVL
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

IN THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
AFTN.  OVER NERN CO AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED WITH THE MID LVL WARMING
THIS AFTN WHICH COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY BORDER. THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS EXCEPT NR THE WY
BORDER WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS.  WITH LESS
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN AND WK SHEAR PROFILE THREAT OF SVR WX LOOKS
LOW.

AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES SO AFTN
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER JUST SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN THE CENTER MIGRATES WESTWARD
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY
12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN ZONAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINATELY
UPSLOPE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS PROGGED INTO THE CWA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE IS FOR
FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY PROGGED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON ALL THE MODELS FOR
ALL THE PLAINS AND LOWER FOOTHILLS ARE PROGGED OVER 1.00 INCH
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50 TO 65 F RANGE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS ALL FOUR
PERIODS. PRETTY DECENT CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SOME AREAS OF THE PLAINS HAVE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA LATE DAY FRIDAY AND LATE DAY SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BUT ALL THE MODELS WEIGHT IN WITH
SOMETHING. WILL GO WITH 30-50% POPS FRIDAY LATE AND SATURDAY LATE.
WILL EVEN KEEP SOME GOING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST FOR THE
06-12Z PERIODS. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS AND MORE MOISTURE.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTER STAYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES FURTHER WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ITS TAIL END GETTING
INTO THE CWA PERHAPS. LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE FOR POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

TSTM CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW TODAY HOWEVER STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORM IF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS LATE THIS AFTN SO WILL LEAVE VCTS IN TAF.  AS
FAR AS WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS THE HRRR AND HAVE AN ESE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTN WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE.  MAY
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AROUND 00Z IF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE
ACROSS AND THEN MORE SWLY BY 02Z WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK


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