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000
FXUS65 KCYS 232205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE