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000
FXUS65 KCYS 260519
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1119 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OFF BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED BUT GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CAVEAT IS THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME STRONGER WINDS IN CARBON COUNTY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE A DRY
WEEKEND WITH THE ONLY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THEN MOSTLY
80S FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ALONG OR JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS CHAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. A
SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH MODEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE COOLER AIR SLIPPING DOWN THE PLAINS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AS A
BATCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED SFC FRONT AGAINST THE MTNS AND A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE MOVING SE OVER THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDS
BEFORE THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND DRIER AIR
RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL
BE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z SAT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE AT KCYS AND KLAR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
OR ERRATIC WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THAT ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA
MADRE... SNOWY...AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER PUSH OF MONSOON
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...SML