Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 191724
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1124 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Windy conditions will continue for the next few hours across Dawes
and Sioux counties with the low level jet overhead.  CDR forecast
soundings show winds just off the sfc decreasing between 09 and 12Z,
so the wind advisory looks good for a few more hrs.  The short term
will mostly be dominated by dry and very warm temps, with a brief
cooldown for Monday.  Highs today will be similar to yesterday, with
a few degrees of cooling over northeastern zones behind a weak
front.  The sfc trough will extend from northeastern Colorado into
north central Nebraska by the aftn.   Kept storms out of the fcst
through the evening as instability is really nonexistent with the
warm temps aloft. Sfc high slides into South Dakota by Monday
morning with about 10-15 degrees of cooling to the east of the
Laramie Range.  Llvl winds become southeasterly by Monday afternoon
with good moisture advection in areas along the Colorado Border.
Kept slight chance of tstms mainly confined along the southern
Laramie Range where convergence will be the best.  Areas further
east across the plains are rather capped, and believe the GFS is
overdoing storms on Monday evening.  The warmest day looks to be
Tuesday as 700 mb temps rise to a toasty 20C.  With the sfc trough
just to the east of the Laramie Range, westerly winds will gust to
25-35 mph across portions of southeast Wyoming.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2016

The main story through the long term forecast period is hot and
dry. An anomalously strong upper level ridge will be the main
weather influence. The ridge will produce above normal
temperatures and will generally suppress thunderstorm chances. A
quick moving shortwave will move across the northern plains on
Wednesday which will push a cold front south into the forecast
area. This will bring a bit of a cool down for Wednesday but
temperatures will begin to rebound by Thursday with highs from
the mid 80s west to mid 90s into the Nebraska Panhandle. By next
Friday highs will approach 90 in the west with widespread 90s to
near 100 degrees in the Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday morning)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2016

VFR expected for all terminals through tonight under southwesterly
flow aloft.  a cool front will sag south across the plains this
afternoon switching sfc winds out of a north to northeasterly
direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday and Tuesday
afternoons for areas to the west of the Laramie Range due to the
very warm and dry conditions combined with breezy winds.  Minimum
relative humidity values will drop to 10-15 percent and winds will
gust to 25-30 mph.  No fire weather headlines are expected however,
as fuels are still not supportive of rapid fire spread across the
region.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML



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