Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 171630
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
930 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TODAY UNTIL
4 PM MST. MODELS SHOWING A CORE OF STRONGER WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF
THE SURFACE AND AS ALLIANACE IS ALREADY SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...STRONG WINDS SHOULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. CERTAINLY RIDGE TOP WILL SEE
SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH A GOOD
BET. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE FREE
ATMOSPHERE. ALSO REMOVED MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE FORECAST
TODAY AS SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

TODAY...WEAK DISTURBANCE OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND LUSK IN NIOBRARA COUNTY...SO HAVE
ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE TODAY WILL BE LESS WIND DUE TO
WEAKER SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...THOUGH IT WILL BE COLDER
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES VERSUS YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COLD...THOUGH NOT AS BRUTALLY COLD AS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AS MODERATING WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS.

TUESDAY...THOUGH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS...TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AND WARM TO MORE PLEASANT LEVELS AS THE AIRMASS
MODERATES AND WEST WINDS ADD TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS. CONTINUED
DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SLOW MODERATION TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES AS
THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODERATES AND DOWNSLOPE WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED.

WEDNESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES AT MOST LOCALES DUE TO
MODERATING AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH AS POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON THE OPACITY...OR
THICKNESS...OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS MOSTLY
DRY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND MILD WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE 30S AND 40S. WEAK FORCING WILL BE OVERHEAD WITHIN
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT MAINLY
JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED
UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BRINGING WITH IT STRONGER MIDLEVEL ENERGY TO THE ROCKIES...WHILE
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER LLVL WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH HIGHER
SNOW RATES...ESPECIALLY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT TREKS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEARBY VALLEYS AND EASTERN PLAINS
COULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AS WELL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AND THEN SHORTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIAL WIND
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM LUSK TO ALLIANCE THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MIDMORNING OVER THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET.
SIMILAR WINDS WILL OCCUR OUT WEST AS WELL...BUT WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS AND ISSUES AS THE HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SAR



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