Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 022018
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
117 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

HAVE ALLOWED ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS TO EXPIRE WITH SNOW AND
WIND DIMINISHING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING QUICKLY INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH CLOUD TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WITH VIS MOSTLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. CURRENT
PLAN IS TO HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW
IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A THREAT OVER THIS AREA WITH GUSTS FCSTED
TO BE MOSTLY BELOW 20 MPH. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REALLY BE LESS THAN A FEW INCHES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
(CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW) SO AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WILL LIKELY
SEE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LLVL LIFT WEAKENS. WITH THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW ON THE GROUND...TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE MID 20S.

A COLD PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS ON WED WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. THE LLVL
GRADIENT DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY WED
AFTN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ON WED NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO AROUND 60 METERS BY 06-12Z THURS. THERE
IS ALSO A STABLE LAYER AROUND 700 MB STRETCHING FROM ARLINGTON TO
BORDEAUX.  THE OFFICE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES PROBABILITIES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS...AND THUS INCLUDED
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE FCST. AT THIS TIME...GRADIENTS AND
WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A BRIEF AND MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT SO WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. THE GRADIENT DOES DECREASE AFTER
18Z THURS WITH WINDS COMING DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

700MB WINDS WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...DOWN TO 10KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY THAT TIME. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IT WILL BE COLD THURSDAY WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-10C.

HAVE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO NEBRASKA. COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE
RAWLINS/LARAMIE FRIDAY MORNING.

WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS 700MB
WINDS BACK UP TO 35-40KTS BY 06Z SUNDAY...NEAR 50KTS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. COULD BE DEALING WITH WIND HEADLINES IN OUR WIND PRONE
AREAS. 850MB WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE NEAR 40KTS AS WELL...SO WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OUT THAT WAY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT MANY
SITES...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END LATER TODAY BUT LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.  WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER
WILL PERSIST WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



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