Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 191007
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
407 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MEANS THE
STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME 70S
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY ALONG WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY
TUESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TROUGH SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHOWING A POORLY DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT BEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT RAIN SINCE 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 0C TO 4C DEGREES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH SOME LLVL INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. DID NOT PAY MUCH ATTENTION
TO MOS GUIDANCE SINCE MOS VALUES GENERALLY SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY LATE THIS WEEK
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH NOON MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS WILL CARRY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT AT TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS BUT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY BUT WETTING RAINS
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML






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