Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 132040
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
240 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SATELLITE PIX SHOW WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION SPINNING THRU UTAH
WITH A JET STREAK BEGINNING TO ROUND ITS BASE. THE RELATIVE LULL
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WAS A RESULT OF A BREAK
BETWEEN A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE NEXT ONE OVR UTAH. AT 20Z...THE NEXT LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUD-
TOPS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER SRN ALBANY AND LARAMIE
COUNTIES...WITH SIMILAR TRENDS NOTICED ON KCYS 88D RETURNS. SO
WILL SEE SNOW RATES PICK UP AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SE
WYOMING THRU AT LEAST SUNSET. AS WAS FEARED...THE HIGH APRIL SUN-
ANGLE HAS RESULTED IN SUBSTANTIAL MELTING ON AREA ROADWAYS...
WHICH HAS LESSENED IMPACT SOME. HOWEVER A FEW ROAD CLOSURES HAVE
OCCURRED ALONG PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 80. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE UNCHANGED FOR NOW AND CONTINUE
TO RE-EVALUATE TRENDS THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO LINGER SNOW INTO THIS EVENING... HOWEVER RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS AS BEST LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH OUT OF THE CWFA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS THEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LOW 20S OVR
THE PANHANDLE.

HEIGHTS BUILD RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY...YIELDING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SOME ON MONDAY TOO...ALTHOUGH WILL BE TEMPERED BY TODAYS SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

TUESDAY...QUICK WARMUP ON TAP AS OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ZONAL...WEST TO EAST...AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER MONTANA...AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PRODUCING
DOWNSLOPE KATABATIC WARMING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVER OUR COUNTIES IN THE 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG CANADIAN ORIGIN COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE AS OUR CURRENT SUNDAY STORM...AND
LESS MESOSCALE AND DYNAMIC LIFT...THUS 30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 80 TO 100 PERCENT POPS DUE TO FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

THURSDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED
RELATIVELY COOL WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE COLD AIR
REINFORCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

FRIDAY...SPRINGTIME IN THE ROCKIES CONTINUES WITH A MILD SPRING
DAY TO END OUR TRADITIONAL WORKWEEK...AS TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES...INDUCING STRENGTHENING SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE 50S... AND PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF THE WARMER ECMWF CAN BE
BELIEVED...AS IT SHOWS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5640 METERS
WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 CELSIUS.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY HIGH THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY...EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS MILD AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A RIDGE ALOFT OVERHEAD...AND EASTER SUNRISE SERVICES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TO START THE DAY.

.AVIATION...MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR...WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR...WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRESH
MOISTURE AND SNOW COVER FROM TODAYS SNOWSTORM LINGERS. SNOW-COVER
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES UP. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE DISTRICTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ102-
     108-110-112-115-118-119.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-
     103>107-114-116-117.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN






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