Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 230525
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1025 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTED A RATHER AMPLIFIED
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE DOMINATED THE GULF COAST REGION...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
STRETCHED OUT FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH BISECTED THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM COLORADO
TO IDAHO. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW
40S.

EASTERN PORTION OF UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL
TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY. INSERTED WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE LINE. DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
A FEW OROGRAPHIC HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE
RANGE SATURDAY...IT WILL BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WEST TO THE 20S EAST.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-MID 40S FRIDAY AND 40S TO LOW 50S
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY WITH 800-850MB NORTHWEST WINDS 35-40 KT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT MIXING BUT CAN EXPECT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...MAINLY FROM THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE CRAIG-CASPER 850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 50
METERS LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SHOWING A
PATTERN CHANGE AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR STRONG WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE MAY OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND
THE RIDGE AXIS...LLVL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
MODELS INDICATE 700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 5C OR 6C BY TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLIER AND
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY...THEN THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER DUE TO A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. AT THIS TIME...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH PACIFIC
ENERGY PUSHING ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY...MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SO KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AS WELL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS...VFR...WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...
THEN CEILINGS WILL BECOME BROKEN AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY WITH
LOW END VFR CEILINGS...AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT WEST
OF INTERSTATE 25. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS RISING
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE THIS WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 FOR THE PLAINS.
WIDESPREAD WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MJ



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