Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 190852
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
252 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Today...Another warm day on tap, in fact, even warmer than Sunday as
1000-500 mb thicknesses and 700 mb temperatures increase slightly
over those of Sunday. Compromised between NAM and GFS MOS for high
temperatures. Windy again west of I-25, and less so east of I-25,
though fortunately, winds not quite as strong as those of Sunday.

Tonight...Another mild night under mostly clear skies.

Tuesday...Warming trend continues as 1000-500 mb thicknesses and 700
mb temperatures rise slightly. Still not enough low or mid level
moisture for any shower or thunderstorm development. Gradients
suggest breezy winds west of I-25, and lesser so east of I-25.

Tuesday night...Continued mild in the relatively warm atmosphere.

Wednesday...Cooler day on tap, though still above normal, as a weak
cold front sags southward across our counties, especially east of
I-25. Low and mid levels still too dry to support any shower or
thunderstorm development.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

The models are in decent agreement at showing the closed upper low
across Nevada on Thursday, that then ejects northeastward into
Wyoming by Friday night. Isolated showers/tstms will be possible
by Thurs aftn across the far western part of the CWA, however the
best deep layer forcing will remain across northern UT and western
WY. A better chance of widespread precip could develop by Fri
aftn/evening for areas along and east of the Laramie Range,
immediately behind the cold front. Cannot rule out a few stronger
storms by Fri aftn as the midlvl flow aloft and deep layer shear
strengthen. Cooler temps are progged by Saturday behind the front
with highs mostly in the 60s. The models do indicate the trough
becoming more elongated by Saturday, with partly to mostly cloudy
skies across the region.  More drying will occur by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through Tuesday Morning)

VFR conditions through the TAF period. West to southwest winds
will gust to 20-25 kts at the southeast WY sites from late morning
through the afternoon. Winds will mostly be below 15 kts across
the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Will continue with the inherited Red Flag Warning for much of
southeast Wyoming for today, which looks like a nice call, based
on expected humidities from 10 to 15 percent along with winds
gusting from 25 to near 40 knots. Humidities again 10 to 15
percent Tuesday afternoon, and with winds of up to 25 knots west
of I-25, we may need more highlights. Fortunately, cooler
temperatures will help increase humidities on Wednesday, lessening
concerns.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ303>310.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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