Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281811
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
111 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Forecast highlights focus around prolonged rain/storms tonight
through Sunday.

This morning...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to exit to the east/northeast early this morning, as a potent
shortwave continues to progress northeast into Nebraska. Could
even see patchy drizzle for a time early this morning across
mainly central and south-central Kansas before drier
west/northwest low-level flow overspreads the area.

Heavy rain/flooding...Attention then turns to the potential for
numerous bouts of rain/storms from tonight through Sunday, as a
powerful storm system digs across the central/southern Rockies,
eventually ejecting northeast into Mid-America. Thinking the
greatest threat for intense rainfall rates (i.e. 1-2" per hour)
and associated flash flooding will remain southeast of the
forecast area across portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri,
where best combination of strong/deep frontal forcing,
instability, high precipitable waters and moisture transport will
reside. Across Wichita`s forecast area, suspect much lower
instability along with the frontal zone further southeast will
support lower storm-total rainfall amounts ranging from generally
1.50-2.50", with higher amounts possibly approaching 4" over far
southeast Kansas. Per RFC QPF ensembles, this will support healthy
rises on most area rivers and streams, with the greatest threat
of rivers/streams reaching or exceeding flood stage over southeast
Kansas, including the Fall, Verdigris and Neosho river basins and
their associated tributaries. There are also some hints that
portions of the Arkansas and Little Arkansas Rivers across south-
central Kansas as well as the Cow Creek from Lyons to Hutchinson
could reach flood stage as well. Will continue to monitor trends.
For now, will continue with inherited Flash Flood Watch for
Montgomery county.

Severe thunderstorms...With the main frontal zone remaining just
south, thinking the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will
remain south/southeast of the forecast area across Oklahoma,
Missouri and Arkansas. Some elevated instability will likely
reside north of the frontal zone across southern/southeast Kansas
for a handful of strong to marginally severe storms with a hail
threat tonight-Saturday night, but likely not looking at
widespread severe weather across southern/southeast Kansas.

Winter weather...The other aspect of this storm is the snowfall
potential across the western half of Kansas, eastern Colorado and
western Nebraska, as unseasonably cold air filters south. Several
inches are expected to accumulate there, with a slight possibility
of some light wet/slushy accumulations as far east as generally
Russell-Great Bend Saturday night-Sunday. Still some uncertainty
regarding this scenario, but regardless the big winter impacts
will most likely remain west of Wichita`s forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Per medium range consensus and associated ensembles, a fast-
moving system is expected to spread shower/thunderstorm chances
across the region Tuesday-Tuesday night. Widespread severe weather
or heavy rain appears unlikely with this system given limited
moisture/instability.

There is quite a bit of support from deterministic models and GFS
ensemble members that a drying/warming trend will occur mid/late
week into at least early next weekend, as a broad/amplified upper
ridge approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Messy/complicated aviation forecast with multiple flight impacts.
In the near term, anticipate ceilings to improve to VFR at KCNU
shortly. Surface boundary will sag south this afternoon/evening
with wind shift and influx of MVFR ceilings into KRSL/KSLN/KGBD
late afternoon/early evening. Ceilings will decrease as
precipitation chances increase during the night in advance of
upper low approaching from southwest. Scattered thunderstorms will
be around KCNU later tonight/early Saturday, and potentially as
far west as KICT/KHUT, but probability is relatively lower in the
west. Anticipate periodic IFR condition across the area later
tonight/early tomorrow (more prevalent at KRSL/KGBD and KCNU) but
confidence in timing is lower than normal. Do expect some
improvement toward end of forecast. - Howerton

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Per RFC QPF ensembles, the expected widespread rains tonight
through Sunday will support healthy rises on most area rivers and
streams, with the greatest threat of rivers/streams reaching or
exceeding flood stage over southeast Kansas, including the Fall,
Verdigris and Neosho river basins and their associated
tributaries. There are also some hints that portions of the
Arkansas and Little Arkansas Rivers across south-central Kansas
as well as the Cow Creek from Lyons to Hutchinson could reach
flood stage as well. Will continue to monitor trends. For now,
will continue with inherited Flash Flood Watch for Montgomery
county.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  47  52  41 /  10 100 100  70
Hutchinson      71  44  47  39 /  10 100 100  70
Newton          70  44  48  39 /  10 100 100  70
ElDorado        71  47  52  42 /  10 100  90  70
Winfield-KWLD   73  49  55  42 /  10 100  90  70
Russell         64  39  42  35 /  10 100 100  80
Great Bend      68  39  42  36 /  10 100 100  70
Salina          67  43  46  40 /  10 100 100  80
McPherson       70  43  46  38 /  10 100 100  70
Coffeyville     72  56  64  49 /  30 100 100  80
Chanute         71  52  60  48 /  30 100 100  80
Iola            70  51  58  48 /  30 100 100  80
Parsons-KPPF    71  54  63  49 /  40 100 100  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
morning for KSZ100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH
HYDROLOGY...ADK


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