Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 021150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY OR EARLIER. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT WHEN A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTH
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
COMBINED WITH MLCAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
UPDRAFT WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE H7
THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS VERY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS AND
MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN SITUATED ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. SOME IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ON PERIPHERY OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. UNFORTUNATELY...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS FROM STORMS HAS COMPLETELY OBSCURED VIEW VIA
SATELLITE. OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
KEMP-K9K8 AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLN-KGBD. AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE KICT OUT...BUT WILL BE WATCHING KAAO OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OR WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT GIVEN LITTLE CIN AND WEAK
FORCING. EITHER WAY...APPEARS THAT MOST SITES WILL LIKELY GET
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING SECOND HALF FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. AT THIS POINT...LIMITED LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO
MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  71  94  74 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      87  70  93  74 /  30  40  10  10
NEWTON          86  69  93  74 /  30  50  10  10
ELDORADO        87  70  93  74 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  71  94  75 /  60  30  10  10
RUSSELL         86  68  97  74 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      85  68  95  73 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          88  70  96  76 /  20  50  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  69  94  74 /  20  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  71  93  75 /  60  30  10  10
CHANUTE         87  70  93  74 /  60  50  20  10
IOLA            86  70  93  74 /  40  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  93  75 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$






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