Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201719
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOUTH 10-15 MPH WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE ACROSS
THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD DURING THE NIGHT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ~80F
ACROSS KICT COUNTRY. AS EXPECTED...A WEAK FRONT RANGE SURFACE TROF HAS
FORCED A WARM FRONT DUE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA THUS KEEPING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA & WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY:
THE FIRST ISSUE IS HEAT. A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED EAST
ACROSS LOWER MI YESTERDAY IS ENABLING A LARGE & STRONG MID- UPPER HIGH
COVERING THE GULF COAST REGION TO RETROGRADE/SPREAD SLOWLY W TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD ENABLE DEEP VEERING S-SW FLOW TO CONTINUE
ADVECTING HOT AIR NE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. WITH RICH MOIST LOWER
AIR MASS COVERING EASTERN KS HEAT INDICES NEAR 105F ARE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS. HAVE CHECKED SWING ON HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE AS DURATION
IS AN ISSUE. A 700-MB SHORTWAVE (ALBEIT WEAK) IS SCOOTING NE ACROSS OK
TOWARD SE KS WHERE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO `SPARK` A COUPLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFORE-MENTIONED
CONTINUED MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD "PUT A LID" ON ANY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL KS.

TONIGHT-THU:
A SHARPER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ORIENTED IN A N-S MANNER FROM EASTERN MT
TO NORTHEAST NM SHOULD BEGIN ITS TRIP E TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS BUT
WITH THE LARGE MID-UPPER HIGH COVERING THE GULF COAST NEIGHBORHOOD THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE FORCED TO TAKE A SLOW NE ROUTE ACROSS NEBRASKA WHERE
IT SHOULD WEAKEN & WITH SUCH A WARM MID-LEVEL AIRMASS THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR RUSSELL & LINCOLN COUNTIES ARE VIRTUALLY NIL. THU WILL BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F & HEAT INDICES FROM 100-104.

FRI & FRI NIGHT:
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A MID-UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE OR/ID BORDER WILL EJECT THE 1ST OF A COUPLE NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVES NE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE 1ST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SE ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO A RICH MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA & NORTHWEST KS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD SLOWLY E ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA & TOWARD CENTRAL
KS LATE FRI NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR
OVER NEBRASKA & WESTERN KS WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO THE FRONT & ALIGNED
WITH THE 30-40KTS 6K BULK SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS WEEKEND:
ONE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE ON SAT BUT THEN REDEVELOP LATE FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
THE SE CO/SW KS BORDER SAT NIGHT. WITH RICH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE NE ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SAT NIGHT THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON & NIGHT THE MOST VOLATILE PERIOD
MAY BE LATE MON AFTERNOON & NIGHT WHEN INSTABILITIES & DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
(BOTH SPEED & DIRECTIONAL) INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN & CENTRAL THIRDS OF
KS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA NEAR KCNU DUE TO
AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES. VCTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF KRSL AS A SYSTEM OUT WEST SPARKS A FEW STORMS AND
THEY MAY MIGRATE INTO TEH NC SECTIONS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76  99  77 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      98  76  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          98  75  98  77 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  76  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         98  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      98  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA         100  76  99  75 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       98  76  99  76 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE    100  74 100  76 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         99  74  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            99  74  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF   100  74  99  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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