Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 011752
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LINGERING MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE NORTH OF GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREAL OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED CRITERIA
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY
ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CIGS AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TOWARD
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LEAVING CNU THE LATEST. WILL SEE
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          30   9  34  23 /  50   0   0   0
ELDORADO        36  10  34  23 /  50   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
RUSSELL         21   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      23   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          27   7  35  23 /  50   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       28   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  13  33  23 /  60   0   0   0
CHANUTE         42  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            41  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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