Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 140432
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1132 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BROKEN DOWN AS A
VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER ONTARIO AND MANITOBA PROPAGATES SOUTH TOWARD
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A TRANSIENT PERIOD WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG OR
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ALONG THE FRONT BUT WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WED-THU...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN NORTHWEST
MID/UPPER FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA BUT MAINTAINED MID POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHILE
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  89  59  77 /  20  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  89  57  78 /  20  40  10  10
NEWTON          68  87  55  76 /  20  40  10  10
ELDORADO        68  88  56  76 /  20  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  89  59  78 /  30  40  10  10
RUSSELL         67  85  55  76 /  10  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  55  75 /  10  30  10  10
SALINA          69  88  56  79 /  10  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  88  56  77 /  20  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  59  79 /  30  50  10   0
CHANUTE         69  87  57  77 /  30  50  10   0
IOLA            69  87  56  77 /  30  50  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  58  78 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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