000
FXUS63 KICT 280754
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper low currently over the Great Lakes looks to drop south and
actually retrograde some back into the Mississippi valley today
through Thu. This upper low will help push a shot of Canadian air
south with a backdoor cold front pushing across the region later
this morning.  This front will lead to strong cold advection across
the forecast area today, pushing temps back a little below normal
and more so on Thu as the colder air settles across the region. Lack
of any moisture underneath the upper ridge, that will be situated to
the west of the upper low, will lead to mainly a wind shift to the
north-northeast as the front moves south.

Could see temps even a little cooler on Thu, with temps struggle to
make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Fri-Sat: The upper low continues to spin over the Ohio Valley for
the first part of the weekend.  With the slow movement of the upper
low, expect the ridge of high pressure (to the west of the low) to
linger over most of the forecast area at least through the beginning
of the weekend. This will lead to seasonal temps and mostly clear
skies continuing for Fri-Sat.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Flow looks to become more zonal by the middle of the weekend, as a
kicker type system moves into the wrn US.  This will help flatten
out the ridge which will lead to low level moisture gradually
returning across wrn KS for late Sat into Sun. This could lead to
showers and a few thunderstorms moving back into western sections of
the forecast area possibly by late Sat night and more likely Sun
night.

Medium range models differ some on the timing and strength of this
shortwave as it crosses the Rockies on Mon.  Latest ECMWF is coming
out a little stronger with this system, and even takes on a negative
tilt as it comes across the plains.  The ECMWF and to lessor extent
the GFS suggests a more active pattern for Mon-Tue, and possibly
strong to severe storms for Mon night or Tue night.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions forecast at all sites throughout period. Light and
variable winds should continue most of the night, with weak front
backdooring into area around daybreak. Slightly stronger mixing
during the day will boost winds a bit, but become light by sunset.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  48  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      74  46  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          72  46  68  47 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        72  46  68  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   76  48  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         74  45  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      75  44  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          72  46  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       72  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     76  48  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         71  47  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            70  47  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  48  70  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDK
LONG TERM...BDK
AVIATION...PJH