000
FXUS63 KICT 070139
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
739 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH A THIN BLANKET OF FRESH SNOW
AND TRENDED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 8 BELOW.

MWM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

TONIGHT-SAT:
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING SETTING UP A VERY
COLD NIGHT. WHILE NOT ANTICIPATING BREAKING ANY RECORDS...WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE RECORD NEIGHBORHOOD. SNOW COVER BETWEEN
GBD/HUT AREA WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT EVEN BETTER AND HAVE ADJUSTED
GRIDS FOR THAT. LIMITED RECOVERY ON SAT AS CLOUDS START TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC IF CLOUDS COME IN QUICKER AND NIX MIXING GIVEN THE
COLD START.

SAT NIGHT-MON:
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN STARTS TO DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICK/SOON COLUMN WILL
SATURATE TO THE SURFACE. IMPRESSIVE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS
SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING AN ALL SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH ANYWHERE FROM TRACE TO
SHY OF AN INCH THE MOST LIKELY RANGE AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUN...BUT ANTICIPATING IT TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO
LINGER SUN NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD OFFSET AN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT.
COMBO OF WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MORE INSOLATION IN THE NORTHWEST
2/3RDS OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW DECENT TEMPERATURE REBOUND ON MON.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AREA
REMAINING UNDER CENTRAL US LONGWAVE TROUGH. A TREND TO SLIGHTLY LESS
AMPLIFICATION/MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON HOW SOON/HOW MUCH. WARMING
TREND/RETURN FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS END OF THIS PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY FRI. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24-HR PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. BKN-OVC AROUND 7000 FT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE CLEARING LINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD  EASTWARD
ARRIVING TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 02Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

MWM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT     1  22  14  26 /   0  10  40  20
HUTCHINSON      -5  20  12  24 /   0  10  40  30
NEWTON          -1  21  12  24 /   0  10  40  30
ELDORADO         0  21  13  26 /   0   0  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD    2  22  14  28 /   0  10  30  20
RUSSELL         -5  17  10  22 /   0  10  50  50
GREAT BEND      -5  18  11  23 /   0  10  40  30
SALINA          -3  19  11  23 /   0  10  50  50
MCPHERSON       -6  20  11  23 /   0  10  40  40
COFFEYVILLE      1  23  17  30 /   0  10  30  20
CHANUTE          1  22  14  27 /   0   0  40  30
IOLA             0  21  13  25 /   0   0  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF     1  22  16  29 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$