000
FXUS63 KICT 141136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VIGOROUS PV-ANOMALY WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A VERY
TIGHT BUT INTENSE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER SW
KS...TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
THIS MORNING.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES...WHICH WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TO
NEAR FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  SO THINK THIS
MID LEVEL LIFT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INTENSITY OF THIS SNOW BAND COULD
LEAD TO SOME SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY OR
ELEVATED SURFACES...GIVEN THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS.  AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCHES WOULD BE THE HIGHER END OF THIS EVENT ALONG
A GREAT BEND TO SALINA LINE.

EXPECT THE BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AS THE MORNING HOURS
PROGRESS...MAKING IT INTO SE KS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE A
CAMEO APPEARANCE BY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THINK TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TODAY TO REACH THE MID 40S...WHICH IS
ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THIS CHILLY DAYTIME HIGH MAY FLIRT
WITH COOL HIGH RECORDS AS THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND NORTH
WINDS...CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S INTO SRN KS.  CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES LOOK TO
HANDLE THIS WELL...SO CERTAINLY TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
OUTDOOR FRAGILE VEGETATION.  CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL MAKE
TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING BETWEEN 2-3AM A BIT CRISP.

TUE-WED:
EXPECT A NICE TEMP REBOUND FOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED...AS MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  COULD
SEE A DIURNAL TEMP SWING OF ALMOST 35 DEGREES ON TUE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY A RETURN TO MORE SPRING TYPE TEMPS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WED NIGHT-THU:
ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN TO
THE PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT...AS THE NEXT RAPID MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE ROCKIES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY BY THU MORNING. THIS LIFT WILL LEAD TO
ENOUGH SATURATION FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR INITIALLY CENTRAL KS FOR
LATE WED NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FOR THU.

THIS QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN
PULL SOME SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE PLAINS FOR THU...WITH TEMPS
FALLING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THU TO NEAR FREEZING
IN CENTRAL KS.

THE SPRING TEMP ROLLERCOASTER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
A COUPLE OF NICE SPRING DAYS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO SAT.  CONSENSUS
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN
RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MEDIUM MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BUT STILL WORTH A SMALL POP FOR
NOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SNOW IS THE CURRENT AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE. SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL PUSH IN TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
MORNING. THE HEAVIER BANDS OF THE SNOW ARE DROPPING VISIBILITIES
TO 1-2 MILES. CEILINGS IN THE HEAVY BANDS ARE JUST INTO IFR...BUT
WILL QUICKLY RISE BACK TO MVFR AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS AND MOVES
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT ISSUANCE...BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU.
KCNU WILL SEEN SNOW THIS MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN BEFORE EXITING
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP
GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER RETURNING TO CENTRAL KANSAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WED AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  27  60  39 /  60   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      45  26  60  39 /  50   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  26  58  39 /  60   0   0   0
ELDORADO        44  27  58  39 /  60   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  26  60  39 /  60   0   0   0
RUSSELL         46  23  63  41 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  23  62  41 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          46  24  61  39 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  24  60  39 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     45  26  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
CHANUTE         43  25  57  36 /  60   0   0   0
IOLA            43  25  57  36 /  60   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    44  25  57  37 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094.

&&

$$