000
FXUS63 KICT 280533
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS:
*ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WEDNESDAY.
*COOL DOWN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
*RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY.
*NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY-MID NEXT
WEEK.

AS OF THIS WRITING...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN
BROKEN AT WICHITA...SALINA AND RUSSELL...ALTHOUGH CHANUTE WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT. DETAILS WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE-
WISE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THINKING
READINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...WHICH
WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 28TH. HOWEVER...NOT
ANTICIPATING THE UPPER 70S--LOWER 80S LIKE TODAY WEST OF I-135 DUE
TO SOMEWHAT COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 15-25
MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. STOUT NORTH WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS NEAR 50F THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER READINGS
IN THE LOW- MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...AS DENSE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAM EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANTICIPATING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
--EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM PHASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF 800-600MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
FOR SNOW...WITH READINGS SATURDAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...SO MANY
AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST SEE A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...FALLING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SUPPORT A CHANGE-OVER TO ALL
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ECMWF IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE SNOW
SCENARIO...WITH GFS WARMER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM.
STAY TUNED.

EASTERN NORTH AMERICA UPPER TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT VEERING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER TRANSIENT CIRRUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  73  40  50 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      40  73  39  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          42  71  39  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  73  39  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  74  41  51 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         37  72  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      36  73  37  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          41  71  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  71  39  48 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  73  42  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         40  72  40  49 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            40  71  40  48 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  73  41  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$