Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 151720
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1120 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 318 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Water vapor imagery shows an impulse tracking across the central
Plains. At the surface, cold front stretches from northern IA into
southeast Nebraska and finally into the TX Panhandle.

Mid level theta-e advection ahead of the shortwave has led to
some scattered showers and isolated storms ahead of the front
over southeast KS. This activity should be pushing out of
southeast KS by sunrise as the cold front continues to plunge
south. Even with plenty of sunshine today, temps will still hover
around seasonal normals.

Zonal upper pattern will quickly set back up over the Rockies/Plains
for Thu which will allow lee troughing to deepen. This will
result in low level moisture working its way back north and will
bring rain and drizzle chances back to southeast KS Thu night into
Fri morning. Models have locked onto the slower solution for a
more robust shortwave to swing across the Plains Fri night into
Sat morning. This slower solution will bring good downslope
conditions and well above normal temps area wide on Fri with 80s
not out of the question for areas west of I-135. A strong cold
front is expected to move through Fri night with the front
expected to mostly move through dry with the better precip chances
staying east of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Slightly below normal temps can be expected behind the front on
Sat along with plenty of sunshine. Will start a slow warmup by Sun
as lee troughing sets up some downslope. Seasonal temps and dry
conditions are expected to continue into Tue. ECMWF is more
agressive in diving shortwave energy out of the southern Rockies
and across west TX Tue into Wed, while the GFS keeps this energy
much further north and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
The gusty north winds will diminish this evening as a surface
high pressure ridge settles southeast across the area. The ridge
will retreat east of the area by Thursday morning, allowing a
return south wind to increase across central Kansas. Only SCT-BKN
thin cirrus is expected.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  36  58  50 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      59  33  58  48 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          59  34  58  49 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        60  35  58  51 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   61  36  59  52 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         57  33  60  45 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      58  32  60  45 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          59  33  59  49 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       59  32  58  48 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     62  35  61  52 /  10   0   0  20
Chanute         60  34  58  50 /   0   0   0  20
Iola            60  34  58  49 /   0   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    61  35  60  51 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED


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