Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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355
FXUS63 KICT 030747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/NW KS WITH A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS/OK AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT WORST...MAY
HAVE TO INSERT SOME SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR WED INTO THU. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
WARMING TEMPS. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY WED WITH MANY
SITES PUSHING 80 BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY FRI AFTERNOON...DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND
BY SUN MORNING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY STARTING TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVEIN
MOVING OUT THE UPPER ENERGY MON COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THIS TIME
IT STILL LOOKS DRY UNTIL THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH SOME
ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LIKE THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KCNU WHERE MOIST GROUND
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY...THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WEAK WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WILL BRING MORE MAINLY MID CLOUDS
TO THE AREA BRIEFLY AND SWITCH WINDS TO A NORTH COMPONENT.
-HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  73  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  73  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          42  72  49  74 /   0  10   0   0
ELDORADO        42  72  49  74 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  72  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         39  71  45  75 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  72  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          38  72  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  72  48  75 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  71  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         42  71  49  73 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            43  71  49  73 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  71  49  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH



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