000
FXUS63 KICT 222017
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT
APPROACHING KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK WAVE WILL HELP
TO INDUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE QUESTION COMES IN WHERE
THEY WILL FORM...AND WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE. THE NAM HAS
BACKED OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH IT BRINGS THE MOISTURE AND THINK THIS
IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN HERE AND THE BEST
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SURGE NORTHWARD BY LATE THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND THEN WEST. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

BILLINGS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AND CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. IT DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST. LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE GULF WILL BE OPEN...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT. THUS INDUCING AMPLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY OUT WEST WHERE BEST SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD SOME...HOWEVER...WITH A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR...BEING UNDER THE RIDGE...LARGE COMPLEXES OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH THE EXPECTED
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS A
THREAT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ONE DAY BEING BETTER FOR STORM
CHANCES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THIS BEING A
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR ANY OUTDOOR
EVENTS AS LIGHTENING IS ALWAYS A THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

BILLINGS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

RELATIVELY QUIET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND VEER OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ADDED A SCT025 DECK AT KRSL/KSLN FOR
NOW...AS CONFIDENCE WHETHER A BROKEN DECK WILL GET THAT FAR SOUTH
IS NOT HIGH. ALSO BELIEVE NAM IS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
RETURN GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  74  57  76 /  20  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      52  73  57  76 /  20  20  20  40
NEWTON          51  72  56  74 /  20  20  20  30
ELDORADO        52  73  56  75 /  20  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  74  57  77 /  20  30  20  30
RUSSELL         49  72  56  77 /  20  20  30  40
GREAT BEND      50  72  57  76 /  20  20  30  40
SALINA          51  73  55  77 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       51  73  56  75 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     55  75  57  78 /  20  20  20  20
CHANUTE         53  74  55  76 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            52  74  54  76 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  56  76 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$