Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 210439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING
AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
FEW HAILERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MAINTAINED LOW POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE FOR
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE AIR ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER SEASONABLE AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIMITED
INSOLATION ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 70S/AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE THURSDAY AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AREA
ALLOWS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS
BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  80  55  77 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  78  53  78 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          62  77  52  76 /  40  10   0   0
ELDORADO        64  79  53  77 /  20  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  82  54  79 /  10  20   0   0
RUSSELL         57  78  52  77 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      59  77  53  77 /  30   0  10  10
SALINA          60  79  52  77 /  30   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       61  78  53  77 /  40   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     68  81  53  78 /  10  20   0   0
CHANUTE         66  79  52  78 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            65  78  52  78 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    67  81  52  77 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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