Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 282030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH..WITH
PLACES IN CENTRAL KS SHIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

ALSO COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN KS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AS A CAPPING INVERSION AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF A STORM DEVELOPING WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE THE WEAKEST. SO WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KCNU AND KICT TAFS FROM 22Z-03Z...JUST IN
CASE A STORM CAN DEVELOP...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SMALL AT THIS
TIME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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