Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 221816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3PM FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...AND GENERALLY EAST OF
PRATT-LYONS-SALINA. THESE AREAS STILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
A SUBTLE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE INCHING
NORTHWARD. WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING
AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...THINKING DENSE
FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID-AFTERNOON.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TRACKING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE APPROACHING SW TX EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 17Z. THE HEADLINE
WAS ALSO EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WHILE MOST SITES HAVE COME ABOVE 1/4SM THERE ARE A FEW SITES THAT
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE. SO WILL LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS
FOR NOW. NOT OVERLY EXCITED WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO BE OVER FAR SE KS. THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN OK WILL LIKELY BE WHAT EVENTUALLY
AFFECTS OUR FORECAST AREA. SO FOR THIS MORNING KNOCKED DOWN POPS
QUITE A BIT AND JUST RAN WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE UNTIL THIS AREA OF
PRECIP MAKES IT UP HERE. LOCATIONS SE OF THE TURNPIKE WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. EVEN WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE
TODAY...THE LOW 60 DEGREE TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN OK RIGHT NOW WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYING OVER FAR
EASTERN KS. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY
SUN EVENING WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUN NIGHT. EVEN WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MON...TEMPS WILL STILL
BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH WED IN SWINGING
THROUGH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH NW FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
FOR WED. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AS MOISTURE NEVER HAS A CHANCE TO RETURN. IN ADDITION...TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. WHILE THERE IS
SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT POLAR AIR WILL TRY TO SPILL ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW FAR WEST THIS AIR
MAKES IT. CAN HOWEVER SAY WITH SOME CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR WED-FRI WHICH SHOULD
BE GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...THINKING VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ICT-HUT
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR BY 19-21Z...AS MIXING IMPROVES
THANKS TO CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AMIDST A MOIST LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS...THINKING CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE SOME THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
VLIFR SINCE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HAVE WANED. HOWEVER...AMIDST
THE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY LIFR-
VLIFR FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT CNU. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...ELIMINATING THE IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT RESULTING IN VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  51  53  31 /  20  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      59  49  52  29 /  10  10  30  10
NEWTON          58  50  53  30 /  20  20  30  10
ELDORADO        60  51  55  31 /  20  20  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  52  56  31 /  20  20  30  10
RUSSELL         63  38  50  28 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  42  51  29 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          60  46  51  30 /  10  20  40  10
MCPHERSON       59  48  52  30 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     61  53  59  33 /  50  50  60  20
CHANUTE         60  52  56  32 /  30  50  60  20
IOLA            60  52  56  31 /  30  50  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    60  52  58  32 /  40  50  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ050>053-
067>069-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



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