Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271156
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
656 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

A shortwave trough continues to remain parked over the Rockies with
diffluent H5 flow downstream across the Central Plains states. Moist
southerly flow will persist across the area again today while the
surface low remains situated across Southwest Kansas. A more diffuse
dryline is progged to mix slowly eastward by late afternoon
providing a focus for severe storms once again. The moist sector may
be contaminated by ongoing convection and not nearly as unstable as
the previous day with the steepest mid-lvl lapse rates remaining
across Central/South Central KS. Cinh is also progged to diminish
early in the period resulting in lingering/early onset of new
convection by around 18z or shortly thereafter. H5 flow is progged
to back as the mid/upper trough approaches and when the PV anomaly
rotates toward the area late in the period...supporting a more rapid
transition to linear mode during the afternoon/early evening hours
over South Central KS. The better H85 moisture transport overnight
is progged to shift rapidly eastward focusing on far southeast KS
into MO while increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence
overspreads the region from west to east as we move through the
overnight hours and into Saturday. Since much of the area has
saturated soils with ongoing flooding concerns the flash flood
watch will be extended through tonight for much of Central & South
Central KS. Most locations are expected to remain dry on Saturday
as the mid/upper trough lifts slowly north and east toward the
Upper Mississippi Valley area. Under a mix of sun and
clouds...highs on Saturday are expected to remain seasonable with
readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Southerly flow will return on Sunday allowing low level moisture to
surge back north across the area. This will result in a buoyant
airmass and we may see a few storms develop along a dryline across
the High Plains and drift eastward through the evening hours.
Maintained low pops across much of the area with the highest
confidence across Central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Maintained low pops through the middle of the week as another
slow moving mid/upper trough is progged to translate eastward
across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains states.
The Ecmwf continues to be more progressive with the trough which
would result in a faster fropa and a drier scenario when compared
to the GFS. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated through
the period with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Areas of MVFR CIGS can be expected this morning with very
brief period of IFR in central Kansas. Otherwise, daytime
heating and the approach of low pressure aloft will result
in scattered to numerous showers and storms from midday
into the evening across much of the area again. For now
have inserted VCTS and will amend as needed as convection
become more imminent.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  58  82  61 /  60  50  10  10
Hutchinson      80  56  81  59 /  60  50  10  10
Newton          78  57  80  59 /  60  50  10  10
ElDorado        77  59  81  61 /  60  60  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   80  60  83  63 /  60  50  10  10
Russell         79  55  79  56 /  60  50  10  10
Great Bend      80  56  79  58 /  60  50  10  10
Salina          79  56  80  58 /  50  50  20  10
McPherson       79  55  80  58 /  60  50  10  10
Coffeyville     77  64  82  63 /  60  60  20  10
Chanute         76  63  81  62 /  60  60  30  10
Iola            76  62  81  62 /  60  60  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    77  63  82  63 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED



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