494
FXUS63 KICT 171126
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog potential early this morning across mainly south-
  central and southeast Kansas.

- Isolated thunderstorm potential Saturday afternoon-evening
  across mainly central Kansas.

- Severe thunderstorm potential Sunday afternoon-evening, mainly
  west of the Flint Hills.

- Potentially active off-and-on thunderstorm pattern across the
  region next week through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

EARLY THIS MORNING...Moist low-levels combined with light winds
should support patchy fog early this morning, mainly across south-
central and southeast Kansas. Given scattered to broken low to mid
level clouds, do not think the fog will be widespread, although
patchy/shallow dense fog can`t be ruled out in low-lying areas.

THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...An isolated thunderstorm or two is
possible over extreme southeast Kansas, as an elongated upper wave
progresses southeast amidst weak/moderate instability and a weakly
capped airmass. Low-level forcing is non-existent, so anything that
develops will likely struggle and be quite isolated, with better
chances further southeast of the forecast area. Marginal combination
of instability and deep layer shear will preclude strong to severe
storms.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...Thinking a few isolated thunderstorms
are possible across mainly central Kansas, along a trailing weak
cold front. Have a feeling activity will struggle to develop given
capping issues and weak to NIL upper forcing. However, moderate
instability amidst weak deep layer shear and decent downdraft CAPE
could support 50-60 mph wind gusts and small hail with any storm
that can develop.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...A sharpening dryline over western to
central Kansas ahead of an approaching low-amplitude shortwave will
be the focus for thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon
Sunday, especially west of the Flint Hills. Warm mid-level
temperatures and modest-at-best dryline convergence may make it
difficult for storms to develop, especially with southward extent
along the dryline. However, strong heating and seasonable low-level
moisture amidst steep mid-level lapse rates should yield moderate to
strong instability in the warm/moist sector. Additionally, effective
deep layer shear of 40-45 kts oriented perpendicular to the dryline
will support discrete supercells with any storm that can form.
Marginal cloud bases should support primarily a large hail/damaging
wind threat, although lowering cloud bases and increasing low-level
shear in the evening could support an increasing tornado threat in
the evening. Stay tuned for later forecasts as we continue to refine
details.

NEXT WEEK...An off-and-on active pattern thunderstorm-wise looks to
take shape across the Heartland next week through next weekend,
as a mean longwave western CONUS trough takes shape, ejecting
various pieces of upper energy northeast onto Mid-America.
Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of synoptic features
remains unclear at this time, which will have a big impact on
severe weather implications. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Will see patchy fog/BR for a few hours early this morning over
portions of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, due
to light winds and moist low-levels. Thinking the fog will be
rather shallow and patchy, and mostly MVFR, although isolated
pockets of IFR or LIFR are possible. Otherwise, fairly quiet
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK